(October 27, 2010) — The packaged LED market is experiencing tremendous growth with an expected CAGR of 28.2% between 2009 and 2015. Yole Développement and EPIC, both France-based research firms, will publish their new market & technological studies dedicated to LED market and LED manufacturing technologies November 15.
The reports include "Status of the LED industry: SLI 2010, 2008 – 2020 analysis" and "LED Manufacturing Technologies: LED ManTech 2010." This comprehensive survey describes the main market metrics and manufacturing technologies implementing broad adoption of Solid State Lighting. The packaged LED market is experiencing tremendous growth with an expected CAGR of 28.2% between 2009 and 2015. In the analysts’ base scenario, revenues will reach $8.9b in 2010 and grow to $25.7b in 2015 and close to $30b in 2020.
In terms of volume, LED die surface will increase from 6.3b mm2 to 51b mm2 in 2015, a 41.6% CAGR. This will prompt substrate volumes to growth from 12.7M Two Inch Equivalent (TIE) in 2009 to 84.4M TIE in 2015, a 37.1% CAGR (smaller than the die surface increase due to significant manufacturing yield improvements). The equipment market will experiment a dramatic growth cycle with demand driving the installation of close to 1400 reactors in the 2010-2012 period.
“Anticipation of future demand and generous subsidies in China will trigger the installation of another 700-1000 reactors in the same period, leading to a short period of oversupply starting in late 2011. However, this oversupply will mostly affect the low end of the market.”, explains Tom Pearsall, EPIC.
Growth in general lighting applications will be enabled by significant technology and manufacturing efficiency improvements that will help to lower the cost per lumen of packaged LED to be reduced 10-fold between 2010 and 2020: Economies of scale, LED efficiency improvement, including at high power (droop effect), Improved phosphors, Improved packaging technologies, Significant improvements in LED epitaxy cost of ownership through yield and throughput. However, additional breathoughs are needed; Haitz’s Law is not enough. (For nearly three decades from the late 1960s to the end of the 1990s, the light output levels from packaged LED devices have roughly doubled every two years, based on observations and projections by Roland Haitz . Haitz’s Law is similar to Moore’s Law for transistor integration in ICs).
Yole Développement is a market research and strategy consulting firm analyzing emerging applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing. Learn more at www.yole.fr
EPIC, the European Photonics Industry Consortium, with 80 voting members and over 400 associate members is Europe’s premier photonics industry association. Learn more at www.epic-assoc.com
Subscribe to Solid State Technology/Advanced Packaging. Follow Solid State Technology on Twitter.com via editors Pete Singer, twitter.com/PetesTweetsPW and Debra Vogler, twitter.com/dvogler_PV_semi. Or join our Facebook group