What a difference a year makes. Twelve months ago, attendees of SEMICON West were all too familiar with a market ravaged by the global credit crisis and semiconductor downcycle. This year, however, signs point to a healthily recovering market.
When speakers at the 2010 SEMI/Gartner Market Symposium talked forecasts, growth and expansion were repeatedly mentioned. So were change and innovation.
Suresh Venkatesan, vice president of alliance technology development, GlobalFoundriesKeynote speaker Suresh Venkatesan, vice president of alliance technology development at GlobalFoundries, emphasized the importance of collaboration in a constantly changing market. “The foundry model needs to be more collaborative to drive technology,” he said. “Individual companies no longer can handle the rising design and R&D costs, especially since chips are becoming substantially more complex because of a demand for more power.”
He explained that fewer foundries are able to compete against each other, especially for those that don’t have the scale and volume to finance such efforts. That’s where collaboration comes in. “Technology complexity has reached a point where all players have to talk to each other,” he said. “Homegrown R&D is not sustainable. We need to keep up on what’s happening on a global basis, since contract manufacturing has reached its limits.” Innovation of the collaborative process is also needed, he said.
Venkatesan identified convergence as drivers of technology along three different fronts:
• Multi-function devices will increasingly require communication capabilities, consumer functions, and computing.
• Network convergence where a common 4G-type network replaces multiple communication methods like packets and IP.
• Context convergence, like video and rich media, will place a stronger demand on what is being transmitted.
The usage of cloud computing will grow, he said, as will the use of warehouse servers. Venkatesan also sees the need for a series of devices that have processors, much like the personal smart phone. Except in this case a machine will talk to other machines, like a residential electricity meter reporting usage to a power utility.
He concluded his speech by listing three enablers for continued innovation: lithography innovation, materials enabled, and 3D-enabled scaling.
Bob Johnson, vice president of research, GartnerBob Johnson, vice president of research at Gartner, likened the industry’s economic condition as climbing out of a ravine. His outlook on the semiconductor industry showed cell phones and PCs driving the current boom. He sees very robust growth and sales in that sector through 2014, with demand currently outpacing supply.
“Memory will surge and peak in 2012,” Johnson said in regard to the equipment market outlook. Right now the biggest spenders are the major memory producers, foundries and IDMs.
“We were surprised at how rapidly the industry recovered this time,” Johnson said, referring to the dismal conditions of last year’s market. Although the market won’t return to a peak like it did in 2007, he said, it has weathered the recession and is returning to normal.
Dan Tracy, senior director, industry research and statistics at SEMI, said that today’s market is markedly different from that of a year ago, with record IC unit shipments. He recalled how the industry took a big hit in early 2009 but now is seeing strong growth in wafer shipments and noted how the majority of new investment in fabrication is in the Asia-Pacific region.
Dan Tracy, senior director, industry research and statistics, SEMIThe rising cost of gold has become a big challenge on the cost impact of packaging, Tracy said. For 2010, he predicted a 19% revenue growth for photolithography ancillary chemicals, a 17% total rise in the semiconductor materials market, and a 104% spike in spending in the semiconductor equipment market. Strong unit growth is driving the demand for materials, he said.
Gartner’s Dean Freeman, spoke about how the foundry industry has been rapidly changing over the past years, with two main technology camps — TSMC- and IBM-centric technology — battling to become the industry leader. He spoke of how leading-edge technology players should strategically position themselves to better excel in the new and challenging business environment.
SEMI’s Christian Gregor Dieseldorff discussed the trends facing fabs worldwide. His presentation looked into past trends to give an outlook through 2011. He expected 48 facilities to close in 2009 and 2010, and explained how companies that initially intended to upgrade existing facilities changed course and decided to invest in capacity.
Gartner’s Jim Walker spoke on 3D integration in the next decade. He identified how electronic systems continue to grow in complexity and how semiconductor manufacturing methods using 3D interconnects help enable fast, effective IT hardware solutions.
— Arthur Patterson, SEMICON West Daily News