Strong Industry Growth Buoys SEMICON West
SEMICON West is experiencing a rebound from the past couple of years, with a nearly 10 percent increase in booths and several hundred companies demonstrating real products on the show floor.
Speaking at a Monday SEMICON West press conference, Karen Savala, president of SEMI North America, called the improved attendance a “modest recovery” from the 2009 to 2010 period, which she said “hit the exposition industry hard.”
The concurrent Intersolar North America show is now roughly the same size as SEMICON West. Savala said Intersolar N.A. is expected to enjoy 18 percent growth this year, with 662 exhibitors. SEMICON West is expecting 711 exhibitors this year. About 30,000 attendees are converging on San Francisco for the semiconductor and solar equipment and materials shows, she said.
SEMICON West’s improved fortunes are being driven by forecasts of “pretty strong growth in the semiconductor market” for the next few years, SEMI executive vice president Jonathan Davis said. Demand for semiconductor equipment and materials will likely be “steady as she goes” for the next year or two, after a strong rebound in 2010.
Davis, president of SEMI’s semiconductor business operation, said the semiconductor industry is likely to increase from $314 billion this year (the first year that chip revenues are expected to exceed the $300 billion threshold) to $375 billion in 2014, according to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) council. That will drive “steady growth in fab capacity,” including continuing investments in North America by Intel, GlobalFoundries, and Samsung Austin, among others, Davis said.
While SEMI is predicting a 19 percent increase in wafer fab spending this year, a cyclical decline in spending by the test and assembly sector will drag down the total, resulting in a 12 percent increase in overall equipment spending this year. Of the $44.3 billion in expected equipment spending, a respectable $9 billion will be in North America, exceeded only by Taiwan’s spending. Dan Tracy, director of SEMI’s Industry Research and Statistics operation, said the test forecast depends partly on the “wild card” of investments by the memory IC vendors.
Next year could see “some slight cuts” in overall fab equipment spending, a predicted 1.2 percent decline, Davis said. The materials sector, driven by strong unit growth, will continue to grow by $2 billion, from $46 billion this year to $48 billion next year.
At a Monday market briefing by market research firm Gartner Inc. and SEMI, Gartner research vice president Dean Freeman said the rest of 2011 will be buffeted by concerns over oil prices, sovereign debt, jobs, and housing. “Oil drives our economy,” Freeman noted, adding that “no one is putting many bets on the second half of this year, but 2012 should be stronger.”
The 41st edition of SEMICON West comes as longtime CEO Stanley T. Myers plans to retire later this year from executive management of the worldwide trade association he has led for 15 years. SEMI board chairman Doug Neugold, CEO of ATMI Inc., said Myers was a “culturally sensitive, positive, and excited” leader during his years as SEMI’s chief executive.
Neugold said as the search continues for a new chief executive, the board will work this year and next to re-evaluate SEMI’s organization. “This is an important year in the evolution of SEMI,” he said.
Leo Berlinghieri, CEO of MKS Instruments, is the SEMI board member leading the association’s initiatives in Washington, D.C. “At a time when the discussion in Washington is about cuts, cuts, cuts, it is sometimes hard to get our messages across,” Berlinghieri said.
Funding for the key U.S. research labs is “slipping compared with the rest of the world.” And he called for more H1B visas for scientists and engineers educated in the U.S., some of whom are forced to leave the country after completing their educations. Though Congress continues to renew the investment tax credit, Berlinghieri said Washington should make the tax credit permanent.
SEMICON West continues to broaden its focus, with more attention paid to LEDs, MEMS, printed and flexible electronics, and the needs of the fabless and fab-lite semiconductor companies. The show will include more than 100 hours of technical sessions, including TechXPOTs on lithography, new logic and memory device types, advanced packaging, MEMS, and other emerging markets.