As might be expected, this week’s SEMICON West is a much more upbeat affair than it was the past couple years, with the industry well into a recovery from one of the worst downturns in its history. During the first day of exhibits yesterday, booth traffic seemed lively in a way it hasn’t been recently. SEMI’s annual press briefing before the opening of the show reflected the prevailing mood.
Jonathan Davis, president, SEMI North America“This is really an exciting time as the industry begins a multi-year recovery,” said Jonathan Davis, president of SEMI North America, as he opened the presentations, adding later, “I kind of want to savor this moment. I don’t know how many more times I’m going to be able to stand up here and say that the market’s going to double this year.”
Davis was alluding to the latest predictions for semiconductor equipment sales, which are expected to rise from $15.92 billion in 2009 to $32.50 billion this year. Combined predictions from eight of the industry’s analysts show semiconductor revenue rising this year by 28.7%. That’s up considerably from what they were predicting at the start of the year, according to Stan Meyers, SEMI’s president and CEO. “The forecast from the same group in January was 14.9%,” he said. “So basically they doubled their view of the semiconductor industry in just six months.”
Gartner expects significant electronics growth this year, with PC unit production expected to rise 22% and cell phone unit production 14%. Samsung Electronics, the biggest television manufacturer in the world, recently raised its flan panel television sales targets from its earlier predicted 39 million units to 50 million units this year, according to Meyers. “This is all good news,” he said. “More demand, more products, more silicon, more materials and more equipment.”
It could be better, however. Although forecasts for semiconductor revenue have a nice trend upward, equipment spending as a percentage of that revenue is moving in the opposite direction, peaking at 24% in 2000 and hitting a low of 7% in 2009. “I’m very concerned at this point about the lower percentage of revenue investment in equipment,” Meyers said, adding, “I’m concerned that we may not be investing enough to maintain the innovative approaches.”
— Aaron Hand, SEMICON West Daily News