IC market for China bright?

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China is regarded as the next global IC hotspot. While the country is working to meet its internal demand, there's some disparity in forecasts as to how much capacity will grow, and how quickly. The Chinese central government projects one new 8-inch and one new 6-inch fab a year, equaling a 28 percent annual growth in IC capacity to 20 billion units/year. The government expects the IC market to grow at a similar 25 to 32 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR). IC Insights, (Scottsdale, AZ) expects the China IC market to reach 40.4 billion units in 2005. Local municipal governments are even more optimistic. Beijing city government officials say they anticipate from five to eight 8-inch lines by 2005; 20 by 2010. Shanghai government officials say it looks for 10 8-inch lines by 2005. Other local governments say they plan on more than 20 6-inch-plus lines by 2005. If the municipal governments' hopes are realized, capacity in 2005 will be at least five times the current 5.88 billion ICs, or about 30 billion units, or 38 percent CAGR. —Staff Report


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