January 13, 2004 – A recent report from IDC predicts 18% growth in 2004 for the semiconductor industry, driven by double-digit growth in shipments of personal computers and mobile phones, and increasing contributions from the Asia-Pacific region.
The study predicts $160 billion in revenues in 2003, nearly doubling to $282 billion in 2008, with a 12.5% compound annual growth rate. A major contributor to the growth will be China, which is becoming a hotbed for both production and consumption of PCs and cell phones — it’s already the top worldwide consumer of mobile phones and the second largest consumer of PCs. Mainland China currently represents about one-quarter of the $60 billion overall demand for semiconductors in the Asia-Pacific region, and will swell to nearly half the region’s total by 2008, according to IDC research VP Mario Morales.
Other predictions from the IDC report:
– By the end of 2003, Japan will have surpassed the Americas as the second largest consumer region for semiconductors;
– Suppliers’ capital spending will grow strongly in 2004, as they focus on 2.5G cellular technology, WLANs, and broadband and mobile infrastructures;
– A shakeout is in store for IP houses and fabless wired communication chip suppliers, while companies dealing with flash memory, analog, and wireless semiconductor vendors will also see consolidation;
– China along with Taiwan, which will begin to aggressively aggregate IP, will both drive fabless startup activity, while the US and Europe experience a slowdown.