Semiconductor wafer shipments to reach a bottom in Q2-05, reports Advanced Forecasting

SARATOGA, CA — (MARKET WIRE) — 05/09/2005 — Total wafer shipments in Q1-2005 (1,465 M sq. in.) have declined 10% from a peak in Q3-2004, but are expected to reach a bottom in the second quarter of 2005, according to Advanced Forecasting, a leading forecasting house. Sales in Q1-2005 declined 1.4% from the previous quarter and were 4.2% lower then Q1-2004.

“Our Wafer Forecast accurately predicted, five months in advance, a slowdown beginning in Q3-04 that would last until Q2-05,” said Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting. “We reported to clients in early 2004 that the industry, which had been on a strong increase for more than 18 months, would lose momentum and peak in July 2004.” In actuality, from Q4-2002 to Q3-2004 shipments increased 50.4%, from 1,083 M sq. in. to 1,629 M sq. in. This forecast, as with each one of the firm’s quantitative-based forecasts, requires no retroactive modifications and accurately captures the oscillations in industry segments.

“As wafers are an enabling ingredient in the manufacturing process of semiconductors, a forecast that accurately predicts demand for wafers will also correlate to the numerous semiconductor materials, components, and equipment,” stated Dr. Moshe Handelsman, President of Advanced Forecasting, adding that “this list also includes worldwide shipments of IC units, the end product.” It is for this reason that Advanced Forecasting has found during its 19 years of analyzing client data that 3 out of every 4 products in the industry correlate directly or indirectly with the forecast used to predict wafer sales.

Advanced Forecasting will publicly discuss the forecasting techniques employed in its monthly forecasts at the 17th annual forecast seminar during Semicon West. Additional forecasts for the Wafer segment as well as IC Revenues, Semiconductor Equipment, and Materials will be disclosed. For information on this seminar please visit:


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