May 16, 2006 – Sales of etch equipment are expected to increase by nearly a third from the beginning of 2006 to the second half of the year, leading to a plateau in 3Q and a potential decline in 4Q, according to new projections from analyst firm Advanced Forecasting. Following an 18% decline in the 12 months through February, that growth in etch sales back to levels seen in the boom year of 2000, driven by demand in Taiwan.

“The etch equipment segment has been struggling to recover since the 83% decline it suffered during the 2001 recession, with the exception of a robust 1H04,” said Rosa Luis, director of marketing and sales for Advanced Forecasting, based in Saratoga, CA.

The firm is forecasting a slowdown in 2H06 for the etch equipment market, mirroring a similar decline in 2001 as well as weakness seen in 2H04 that followed a similarly strong period, she noted.

Overall worldwide wafer processing equipment billings have declined nearly 15%, with bookings down more than 21%, due to declines in exposure and write, inspection/measurement, etch, and CVD equipment, the firm added. Together, the firms account for nearly two-thirds of the wafer processing equipment segment.

Tool demand struggling to recover
Equipment orders and sales, Feb. 2005-2006 vs. Feb. 2004-2005

…………………CVD………..Etch…………Inspection/………..Expose/write……Wafer processing
…………………………………………………measurement
Bookings….-22.0%……..-16.7%……..-19.0%…………….-18.6%………..-21.6%
Billings…….-14.7%……..-18.2%……..-15.5%…………….-12.4%……….-14.6%

Source: Advanced Forecasting