February 22, 2007 – The latest data from Semiconductor International Capacity Statistics (SICAS) shows that actual wafer starts have slowed behind rising capacity additions, causing utilization rates to decelerate further below the 90% mark historically used to signal new capacity investments.
Total IC capacity was 1.8837 million wafer starts/month (WSPW, 200mm equivalent), 4.2% higher than 3Q06 and 15.2% higher than 4Q05, well outpacing actual wafer starts — which inched up just 1.8% Q-Q and 8.5% Y-Y to 1.6283 million WSPW. Capacity utilization fell to 86.4% from 88.5% in the prior quarter, for its lowest level since 1Q05 (84.8%).
As has been the trend, most of the increase in capacity additions and output was at leading-edge nodes (<0.12-micron), with 10%-11% increases quarter-on-quarter in capacity and output, and >50% increases year-on-year, keeping utilization rates around 93%.
The big drop came from trailing-edge (0.16–0.2 micron), where output was throttled back by 10% from 3Q and utilization rates fell to 74.3%. Foundries also took a hit during 4Q with a 9% decline in output (to 241.1 thousand WSPW), dropping utilization rates to 80.9% from 91.5% in 3Q.
300mm chipmaking operations also contributed heavily to the increase in capacity, adding another 16.2% to 554.4 thousand WSPW. Actual 300mm wafer starts rebounded a bit in 4Q (12.5% vs. 3Q), but not enough to prevent utilization rates from slipping further into the mid-80% range — its lowest total in more than two years, and down from a plateau of ~97% during mid-2006.
Total semiconductors (including discretes) saw another 4% jump in capacity in 4Q to 2026.1 thousand WSPW, but just a 1.0% increase in actual starts, for overall utilization of 86.8%. Total MOS capacity rose 4.4% sequentially and 17.0% vs. a year ago to 1799.8 thousand WSPW, while MOS wafer starts were up just 2.2% Q-Q and 10.1% Y-Y to 1568.6 thousand WSPW.
TOTAL MOS
…………….1Q04……..2Q04……..3Q04……..4Q04……..1Q05……..2Q05……..3Q05……..4Q05……..1Q06……..2Q06……..3Q06……..4Q06
Capacity (WSPW x 1000)
…………..1265.3…..1297.0…..1345.3…..1363.4…..1403.9…..1427.6…..1482.9…..1538.2…..1611.0…..1660.4…..1723.3…..1799.8
% Q-Q……2.4…………2.5…………3.7…………1.3…………3.0…………1.7…………3.9…………3.7…………4.7…………3.1…………3.8…………4.4
% Y-Y……..10.6……..8.4………..9.5…………..10.3……..11.0……..10.1………10.2………12.8………14.8……..16.3……..16.2……..17.0
Actual (WSPW x 1000)
……….1190.0…..1240.6…..1249.6…..1179.0…..1201.6…..1278.1…..1345.7…..1424.3…..1453.5…..1524.7…..1534.7…..1568.6
% Q-Q…..4.6……….4.3……….0.7……….-5.6………..1.9……….6.4……….5.3……….5.8……….2.1……….4.9……….0.7……….2.2
% Y-Y……24.5……..20.0……….14.0………….3.6…………1.0…………3.0…………7.7…………20.8……21.0……19.3……14.0……10.1
Utilization rate…….94.0…….95.7……..92.9………86.5………85.6…….89.5…….90.7…….92.6…….90.2…….91.8…….89.1…….87.2
TOTAL ICs
…………….1Q04……..2Q04……..3Q04……..4Q04……..1Q05……..2Q05……..3Q05……..4Q05……..1Q06……..2Q06……..3Q06……..4Q06
Capacity (WSPW x 1000)
…………..1372.5……1405.8……1454.3……1466.4……1508.3……1529.9…..1580.1…..1634.7…..1702.8…..1744.4…..1808.0…..1883.7
% Q-Q…..2.4………..2.4………..3.5………..0.8………..2.9………..1.4………..3.3………..3.5………..4.2………..2.4………..3.6………..4.2
% Y-Y……9.8…………7.5…………8.6…………9.4…………9.9…………8.8…………8.7…………11.5……12.9……..14.0……..14.4……..15.2
Actual (WSPW x 1000)
……….1281.6……1340.9……1345.2……1260.9…..1279.6…..1362.5…..1424.0…..1500.4…..1524.6…..1591.2…..1600.3…..1628.3
% Q-Q…..4.4………..4.6………..0.3………..-6.3……….1.5………..6.5………..4.5………..5.4………..1.6………..4.4………..0.6………..1.8
% Y-Y…….23.9……..19.3……..13.2……..2.7…………..-0.2…………1.6…………..5.9………….19.0………19.1……..16.8……..12.4…….8.5
Utilization rate……93.4…….95.4…….92.5…….86.0…….84.8…….89.1…….90.1…….91.8……89.5……91.2……88.5……86.4
WaferNEWS source: SICAS