April 16, 2007 – Data for semiconductor equipment demand seemed to be holding steady in January and February, according to initial data from SEMI — but apparently equipment demand was really in line with other slowing trends in the industry, as the group now admits its tool sales & orders data were incorrectly too high.
Revised data from SEMI now shows January equipment sales were just $1.45 billion, nearly 10% below the $1.60 billion initially reported, and actual bookings were more than 13% below initial estimates, at $1.44 billion instead of $1.67 billion. The book-to-bill ratio for January was at an even 1.00, not 1.04 as initially reported.
February data also turns out to be lower than SEMI had indicated — about 9% lower in sales ($1.43 billion vs. $1.58 billion) and more than 15% off in bookings ($1.49 billion vs. $1.65 billion), pushing the B:B below parity to 0.98 instead of a 1.05 mark that suggested healthy demand (orders outpacing sales).
SEMI blames a data input error in its February report for the miscalculation, and a spokesperson further clarified that the changes were “based on revised data from one or more participants.” Such miscalculations are rare but have happened occasionally in the past given the complex collection of data from 60+ SEMI members, the spokesperson explained. SEMI says additional processes have been implemented to catch such errors in the future.
So, here is the revised version of the past 12 months of SEMI’s semiconductor equipment sales/orders data:
North American equipment bookings, billings — Jan 2006-Feb 2007
Month…….Billings…….%M-M………%Y-Y……….Bookings……..%M-M……..% Y-Y………B:B
………… (3-mo. avg.)……………………………………(3-mo. avg.)……………………………………..
Jan’06…………..1259.4…….2.9%………0.1%……….1225.9……..7.3%…….24.3%……..0.97
Feb’06…………..1283.3…….1.9%……..-3.6%……….1293.2……..5.5%…….26.3%……..1.01
Mar’06…………..1338.7…….4.3%………5.2%……….1385.3……..7.1%…….40.2%……..1.03
Apr’06…………..1448.5…….8.2%……..16.9%……….1602.4…….15.7%…….60.4%……..1.11
May’06…………..1452.6…….0.3%……..19.8%……….1619.0……..1.0%…….59.5%……..1.11
June’06………….1557.4…….7.2%……..35.2%……….1782.3…….10.1%…….71.7%……..1.14
July’06………….1637.9…….5.2%……..51.9%……….1734.6…….-2.7%…….72.2%……..1.06
Aug’06…………..1742.8…….6.4%……..65.1%……….1729.7…….-0.3%…….69.6%……..0.99
Sep’06…………..1672.8……-4.0%……..53.7%……….1639.2…….-5.2%…….66.6%……..0.98
Oct’06…………..1562.9……-6.6%……..36.4%……….1468.6……-10.4%…….34.3%……..0.94
Nov’06 (f)……….1486.1……-4.9%……..26.0%……….1426.5…….-2.8%…….30.5%……..0.96
Dec’06 (f)……….1482.3…..-0.20%…….21.10%……….1497.2…….5.00%……31.00%…….1.01
(old) Jan’07 (p)…..1604.5……8.2%……..27.4%………..1674.7……11.9%…….36.6%……..1.04
(new) Jan’07 (p)…..1448.0……-2.3%…….15.0%………..1445.8……-3.4%……17.9%……..1.00
(old) Feb’07 (p)…..1577.6……-1.7%……..22.9%………..1652.8……-1.3%…….27.8%……..1.05
(new) Feb’07 (p)…..1428.8……-1.3%…….11.3%………..1400.9……-3.1%…….8.3%………0.98
WaferNEWS source: SEMI