August 7, 2007 – In what might be called “memory rubbernecking,” two industry groups have laid out the gory details of how DRAM chipmakers performed in 2Q07, and to nobody’s surprise the numbers are pretty ugly.
“The industry as a whole experienced painful price drops amid an extremely oversupplied situation,” iSuppli said in a statement that tallied up the 2Q final numbers: global DRAM down 24% to $7.3 billion, with ASPs sliding another 39%, though that’s slightly better than the 40% plunge the firm had been projecting. Only one top-10 supplier (Etron Technology Inc.) managed positive sales growth in the quarter, while Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and Micron Technology Inc. gained share on the rest of the market — even though they suffered ~15%-16% declines in revenue.
A big part of the problem was increased product availability, with a 23% increase in megabit shipments (following a 21% bump in 1Q07) indicating that oversupply condition “was even more severe than anticipated,” the firm said in a report.
Samsung widened its lead in terms of DRAM sales with a 28.4% share, and also retook the top spot from rival Hynix in terms of unit shipments, iSuppli noted. Elpida fell behind the pack a little bit, but the firm is somewhat bullish on the Japan firm’s future performance, noting it’s in the midst of a transition, and its JV with Powerchip, “Rexchip,” is now in pilot production and should add more 70nm capacity later this year.
Also noteworthy was Micron, which swelled megabit shipments by 30% in 2Q, the most since a strategic diversification in 2002.
DRAMeXchange also pointed to a ~24% sales decline among top branded DRAM makers in 2Q, though it says most are still following capex plans laid out earlier in the year to expand 300mm capacity and migrate to 70nm capacity. That transition, coupled with market penetration of 1Gbit DDR2 devices, is expected to create >90% Y-Y supply bit growth.
DRAMeXchange zeroed in on the divergent product mixes among the top two DRAM players, and how it affected their 2Q results for better or worse. Samsung’s <80nm production became more than half its commodity DRAM production, with Q-Q supply bit growth up by as much as 31%, and niche memory about half of total memory output -- which pushed ASPs down 33%, while DRAM sales only fell 13%. Hynix, meanwhile, saw 21% Q-Q bit growth, and because it had more production in commodity DRAM, it took a bigger hit -- ASPs down 43%, sales down 30%, according to DRAMeXchange.
Looking ahead to 2H07, iSuppli notes that Qimonda is planning a capex cutback, and the top 5 suppliers (Samsung, Hynix, Qimonda, Elpida, and Micron) all are forecasting cutbacks in shipments. “The market clearly hit the bottom in the second quarter, and the suppliers’ profitability will be much better in the second half of the year,” iSuppli projects.
Preliminary DRAM revenues, 2Q07
(Revenues in US $M)
Company…………………2Q07 revenues………….vs. 1Q07 (%)…………………vs. 2Q06 (%)………….2Q07 marketshare
Samsung………………………..2083.8………………….2503.0 (-16.7%)…………………2150.0 (-3.1%)…………………28.4%
Hynix……………………………..1518.0…………………..2160.0 (-29.7%)…………………1174.0 (29.3%)…………………20.7%
Qimonda…………………………..988.0…………………..1283.0 (-23.0%)………………..1206.0 (-18.1%)…………………13.5%
Elpida………………………………885.0……………………1171.0 (-24.4%)…………………764.0 (15.8%)…………………12.1%
Micron……………………………..741.8…………………….880.0 (-15.7%)…………………..854.0 (-13.1%)…………………10.1%
Nanya……………………………..347.0…………………….510.0 (-32.0%)…………………..534.0 (-35.0%)…………………4.7%
Powerchip………………………318.0……………………..527.0 (-39.7%)…………………..342.0 (-7.0%)…………………4.3%
ProMos……………………………224.0…………………….393.0 (-43.0%)…………………..260.0 (-13.8%)…………………3.1%
Etron………………………………..94.0……………………..85.0 (10.6%)………………………57.0 (64.9%)…………………1.3%
Winbond……………………………38.0…………………….45.0 (-15.6%)……………………..36.0 (5.6%)………………………..0.5%
Others…………………………….96.3………………………101.0 (-4.7%)…………………….109.0 (-11.7%)………………….1.3%
TOTAL………………………….7333.8………………………9658.0 (-24.1%)…………………7486.0 (-2.0%)…………………100.0%
Preliminary DRAM unit shipments, 2Q07
(Units in millions, 512Mbit equivalent)
Company…………………2Q07 units…………………vs. 1Q07 (%)…………………vs. 2Q06 (%)………….2Q07 marketshare
Samsung………………………619.0………………………..461.0 (34.3%)…………………302.0 (105.0%)…………………24.2%
Hynix………………………….575.0………………………..470.0 (22.3%)…………………217.0 (165.0%)…………………22.5%
Qimonda……………………….336.4………………………..262.0 (28.4%)…………………216.7 (55.3%)…………………13.2%
Elpida………………………….320.9………………………..284.0 (13.0%)…………………140.0 (129.2%)…………………12.6%
Micron…………………………222.8………………………..171.4 (30.0%)…………………139.5 (59.7%)…………………8.7%
Powerchip………………….167.0………………………..160.0 (4.4%)…………………90.0 (85.6%)…………………6.5%
Nanya…………………………155.8………………………..124.4 (25.3%)…………………107.0 (45.6%)…………………6.1%
ProMos………………………..119.7………………………..108.0 (10.8%)…………………59.7 (100.7%)…………………4.7%
Others………………………….36.6………………………..27.0 (35.3%)…………………17.9 (104.4%)…………………1.4%
TOTAL………………………..2553.2………………………..2067.7 (23.5%)…………………1289.7 (98.0%)…………………100.0%
Source: iSuppli Corp.
Global branded DRAM revenues, 2Q07
(Revenues in US $M)
Company…………….2q07……..vs. 1Q07 (%)……..Marketshare (%)
Samsung……………..1991………….2282 (-12.8)……..27.2
Hynix……………………1529……………2189 (-30.1)……..20.9
Qimonda………………992………………1319 (-24.8)……..13.6
Elpida……………………905………………1175 (-23.0)……..12.4
Micron……………………828……………..1063 (-22.1)……..11.3
Nanya……………………308………………489 (-37.0)…………….4.2
Powerchip…………….249……………….475 (-47.6)…………….3.4
Promos………………….232……………….399 (-41.9)…………….3.2
Etron………………………97…………………87 (11.5)…………….1.3
Winbond………………….72………………..91 (-20.4)…………….1.0
Others……………………104……………….101 (3.2)…………….1.4
TOTAL……………………7307………….9670 (-24.4)……..100.0
Global DRAM makers ranking by camp, 2Q07
Company/group…………….1Q06…………….2Q06…………….3Q06…………….4Q06…………….1Q07…………….2Q07
Samsung……………………..26.5%…………….26.4%…………….25.7%…………….26.8%…………….23.6%…………….27.2%
Hynix/ProMOS…………….17.5%…………….19.4%…………….20.7%…………….23.8%…………….26.8%…………….24.1%
Elpida/Powerchip……….13.9%…………….14.9%…………….15.8%…………….15.7%…………….17.1%…………….15.8%
Qimonda/Nanya…………….22.9%……………22.5%……………23.5%…………….19.9%…………….18.7%…………….17.8%
Micron…………………………..15.2%……………13.6%……………11.4%…………….11.2%…………….11.0%…………….11.3%
Others…………………………..3.9%……………….3.1%……………..2.8%…………….2.6%…………….2.8%…………….3.7%
Source: DRAMeXchange