September 7, 2007 – Sales of analog ICs are mired in a “temporary” loss of momentum in 2007, resulting in the first year-on-year decline since the 2001 recession, but for 2008 the outlook looks a lot better, according to analysis from IC Insights.
The firm pegs analog IC sales slipping 2% this year to $36.2 billion, after a 16% jump in 2006, due to inventory corrections (primarily cell phones) and price erosion. Unit volumes are seen increasing just 4% (to 72.5 million shipments) vs. an average annual increase of 16% during 2002-2006, and will account for nearly half (49%) of all IC shipped this year, down from 51% in 2006 and 50% in 2005.
Application-specific analog ICs, which represent 61% of total analog IC sales (see figure), are seen declining 6% this year, well off the 11% CAGR from 2002-2006, the firm notes. Only automotive (24%) and wired telecom segments (5%) are expected to show any growth at all this year, with slumps in other categories including wireless (-16%), industrial (-12%), consumer (-9%), and computer (-6%) device categories.
Sales of standard analog ICs are also slowing, down to a projected 4% growth in 2007 (half the 8% CAGR seen in 2002-2006) to $14.0 billion, with demand for data conversion devices (+19%), amplifiers (+7%), and interface ICs (+9%) outpacing revenue declines in comparators (-7%), and voltage regulators and reference devices (-2% each).
Starting in 2008, though, it’s back to an upward trend for analog devices. IC Insights projects a 15% bounceback in 2008 to a record $41.7 billion, with record unit volumes of 81.8 million shipments, up 13% from 2007. Total analog IC sales CAGR from 2007-2011 is projected to be 6.2%, to $49.9 billion, with $31.7B of that in application-specific analog revenues, and $18.2B in standard analog ICs.
Analog sales forecast, 2007
(Revenues in US $M)
Standard…………………………………..2007 revenues………………….% of total
Amplifiers………………………………………………2580………………………………..7.1%
Interface………………………………………………..2105………………………………..5.8%
Voltage regulators & ref. devices………….6760………………………………18.7%
Data conversion………………………………………2390………………………………..6.6%
Comparators…………………………………………….240……………………………….0.7%
Total standard analog…………………………….14,075………………………………38.9%
Application-specific…………………….2007 revenues………………….% of total
Consumer……………………………………………..3275………………………………..9.1%
Computer………………………………………………3085………………………………..8.5%
Telecom………………………………………………..9625………………………………26.6%
Automotive…………………………………………….4500………………………………12.4%
Industrial/other………………………………………..1615………………………………..4.5%
Total application-specific analog……………….22,100………………………………61.1%
Total analog market…………………………….36,175…………………………….100.0%
Source: WSTS, IC Insights