November 16, 2007 – A month after semiconductor equipment demand slid to some significant lows in several areas, data for the most recent month shows things haven’t gotten any better, and in fact may be a little worse.

Global bookings tallied by North American-based vendors were flat sequentially in October at $1.23B, representing a -16% decline from a year ago. Billings were down about 4% M-M and 5% Y-Y to $1.49B. Those add up to a book-to-bill ratio (B:B) of 0.83, meaning just $83 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

In a statement, SEMI president/CEO Stanley Myers noted that actual sales of new equipment are following bookings trends, which have been heading south since a cyclical peak earlier this summer. He reiterated the sentiment that for the year equipment sales will be “comparable to or slightly above 2006 sales.”

Revisiting last month’s rundown of how ugly equipment sales are becoming, with updated data:

– In terms of dollars, October bookings were the lowest since Jan. 2006, down -25% since a peak in May ($1641.9B).
– A similar five-month streak of Y-Y double-digit % declines hasn’t been seen since late 2005 (July-Nov).
– Billings (in US$) have fallen -15.8% since a peak in June ($1786.1).
– Recalculating Sept. data muted a previous -10.2% M-M drop in billings (what was a five-year low) to -7.4%…but we’re now four straight months of negative growth and counting.
– Three straight months of Y-Y % declines haven’t been seen since Nov. 2005.
– The B:B is now at four straight months of <0.84 (not since Feb-April 2005), and nine months below parity and counting — the previous ministreak was four months in Aug-Nov 2006, and before that, 17 months spanning late 2004-early 2006.

North American equipment bookings, billings — October 2006-October 2007

Month…….Billings…….%M-M………%Y-Y……….Bookings……..%M-M……..% Y-Y………B:B
……………..(US $M)…………………………………………….(US $M)…………………………………..
………………(3-mo. avg.)………………………………….(3-mo.avg.)……………………………………..

Sept’06…………..1672.8……-4.0%……..53.7%……….1639.2…….-5.2%…….66.6%……..0.98
Oct’06…………..1562.9……-6.6%……..36.4%……….1468.6……-10.4%…….34.3%……..0.94
Nov’06…………..1486.1……-4.9%……..26.0%……….1426.5…….-2.8%…….30.5%……..0.96
Dec’06…………..1482.3……-0.2%……..21.1%……….1497.2……..5.0%…….31.0%……..1.01
Jan’07…………..1448.0……-2.3%……..15.0%……….1445.8…….-3.4%…….17.9%……..1.00
Feb’07………….1423.0……-1.3%……..11.3%……….1398.1…….-3.1%……..8.3%……..0.98
Mar’07………….1436.4……..0.9%……….7.3%………..1419.6………1.5%………2.5%……..0.99
Apr’07………….1594.7……..11.0%……..10.1%………..1567.5………10.4%………-2.1%……..0.98
May’07………….1670.2……..4.7%………15.0%………..1641.9………4.7%………1.4%……..0.98
June’07…………1768.1……..5.9%……….13.5%………..1607.6……..-2.1%………-9.8%……..0.91
July’07………….1685.8…….-4.7%……..2.9%………..1406.3…….-12.5%……-18.9%……..0.83
Aug’07………..1682.3……-0.2%……..-3.5%……….1371.2…….-2.5%……-20.7%……..0.82
Sept’07 (f)……….1557.4…….-7.4%……..-6.9%……….1235.0……-9.9%……-24.7%……..0.79
Aug’07 (p)………..1488.1……-4.4%……..-4.8%……….1231.6…….-0.3%……-16.1%……..0.83