November 13, 2007 – Total global chip sales are looking a little better than anticipated six months ago, though 2008 looks a little bit less optimistic by the same amount, according to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS)’s newly issued autumn 2007 forecast.
In a nutshell, global chip sales are expected to come in at roughly $257.2 billion, for about 3.8% annual growth, slightly better than the 2.3% growth predicted in the WSTS’ spring forecast, an upgrade mainly attributed to “a very strong third quarter,” the WSTS said in a statement. Looking at the general trend over the three-year period (see table below), the WSTS’ outlook hasn’t changed much since May — it still sees 2008 as the peak year for positive growth, at about 9.1% growth total chip sales (vs. 10.2% in May projections), followed by 6.2% in 2009 (vs. 5.2%).
Two major segments in particular, microprocessors and logic devices, are doing better than anticipated this year — micros are on pace for about 4.3% growth vs. a earlier-projected -1.2% decline, and the logic segment is seen finishing this year with 10.9% growth instead of 6.4%. That more than balanced some volatility in smaller segments — e.g. sensor sales declining -3.5% this year instead of a 4.0% increase, plus slower-than-expected sales in discrete and optoelectronics.
Also note the change in future forecast for memory sales, which are seen a little lower in 2008 (4.6% vs. 7.2% in the WSTS’ May outlook), but are seen rebounding with double-digit growth in 2009 (10.7% vs. 4.4% predictions).
By region, the Americas continues to be the underperformer with -4.7% growth this year, though that’s better than the anticipated -7.6% from the WSTS’ May figures. The Asia-Pacific region (7.0% vs. 5.5%) and Japan (4.7% vs. 2.6%) are outperforming expectations this year. In 2008, Asia should see about 12% growth, followed by a surging US market (7.2%), a surprisingly strong Europe (6.2%), and steady Japan market (4.2%). In 2009 it’s back to mid-single-digit growth for everyone.
The WSTS pulls data from 73 member companies, representing 85% of the world semiconductor market, including the top 20 semiconductor companies.
WSTS spring 2007 outlook
(US $M and % growth Y-Y)*
……………………………………………….2007……….2008……….2009
(spring) TOTAL WORLD……….253,506……….279,243……….293,769
(growth %)……………………………..2.3%……….10.2%……….5.2%
(autumn) TOTAL WORLD……….257,235……….280,564……….297,913
(growth %)……………………………..3.8%……….9.1%……….6.2%
(spring) Americas………………..41,508……….44,460……….46,658
(growth %)……………………………..-7.6%……….7.1%……….4.9%
(autumn) Americas…………….42,818……….45,903……….48,704
(growth %)……………………………..-4.7%……….7.2%……….6.1%
(spring) Europe…………………….41,468……….44,821……….46,891
(growth %)……………………………..3.9%……….8.1%……….4.6%
(autumn) Europe………………..41,184……….43,752……….46,129
(growth %)……………………………..3.2%……….6.2%……….5.4%
(spring) Japan…………………….47,618……….50,939……….52,495
(growth %)……………………………..2.6%……….7.0%……….3.1%
(autumn) Japan…………………….48,613……….50,662……….52,576
(growth %)……………………………..4.7%……….4.2%……….3.8%
(spring) Asia-Pacific………………..122,912……….139,023……….147,725
(growth %)……………………………..5.5%……….13.1%……….6.3%
(autumn) Asia-Pacific……………124,620……….140,247……….150,503
(growth %)……………………………..7.0%……….12.5%……….7.3%
(spring) Discrete…………………….17,064……….18,545……….18,718
(growth %)……………………………..2.9%……….8.7%……….0.9%
(autumn) Discrete………………..16,801……….18,214……….18,674
(growth %)……………………………..1.3%……….8.4%……….2.5%
(spring) Opto…………………………17,053……….18,946……….19,818
(growth %)……………………………..4.7%……….11.1%……….4.6%
(autumn) Opto…………………….15,866……….17,518……….18,548
(growth %)……………………………..2.5%……….10.4%……….5.9%
(spring) Sensors…………………….5,555……….6,287……….6,829
(growth %)……………………………..4.0%……….13.2%……….8.6%
(autumn) Sensors………………….5,155……….5,538……….5,874
(growth %)……………………………..-3.5%……….7.4%……….6.1%
(spring) Total ICS…………………….213,834……….235,465……….248,403
(growth %)……………………………..2.1%……….10.1%……….5.5%
(autumn) Total ICS…………………..219,414……….239,294……….254,817
(growth %)……………………………..4.7%……….9.1%……….6.5%
– Analog………………………………………36,770……….41,209……….43,328
(growth %)………………………………….-0.5%……….12.1%……….5.1%
– Analog………………………………….36,612……….40,991……….42,792
(growth %)………………………………….-0.9%……….12.0%……….4.4%
– Micro (spring)………………………………53,311……….58,235……….62,253
(growth %)………………………………………-1.2%……….9.2%……….6.9%
– Micro (autumn)………………………………56,254……….62,223……….66,317
(growth %)………………………………………4.3%……….10.6%……….6.6%
– Logic (spring)………………………………63,999……….71,954……….75,958
(growth %)………………………………………6.4%……….12.4%……….5.6%
– Logic (autumn)………………………………66,706……….73,481……….76,426
(growth %)………………………………………10.9%……….10.2%……….4.0%
– Memory (spring)………………………………59,753……….64,068……….66,863
(growth %)………………………………………2.2%……….7.2%……….4.4%
– Memory (autumn)………………………………59,841……….62,598……….69,282
(growth %)………………………………………2.3%……….4.6%……….10.7%
* Rounding to whole US $M may cause totals by region and product group to differ slightly.
Source: WSTS