Mar. 10, 2008 – Worldwide semiconductor capacity and output both slowed significantly in 4Q07, but for the first time in a year and a half factory utilization rates crept up above the benchmark 90% level, which historically has signified an increase in tool investments — or at least it used to.

Total IC capacity rose 1.2% vs. 3Q and 12.4% vs. 4Q06 to 2117.9K wafer starts/week (WSPW). Actual wafer starts rose 1.8% Q-Q and 17.6% Y-Y to 1914.5K WSPW, for a utilization of 90.4%, up half a percent from 3Q07. Growth patterns were similar for total semiconductors, with output (1.7%, to 2087.4K WSPW) slightly outpacing capacity (1.3%, to 2321.7K WSPW), with utilization inching up to 89.9%.

After leading the charge in 3Q07 with double-digit increases in added capacity and increased output, foundries also pulled in the reins in 4Q, with just 1.9% growth in capacity (to 312.5K WSPW) and 1.3% in capacity (to 293.1K WSPW), for a utilization of 93.8%, about half a percent lower than in the prior quarter.

Even leading-edge chip manufacturing (<120nm MOS), though continuing to see heavy usage (>94% utilization), was not immume to the 4Q slowdown. After growth in the teens for >2 years, capacity growth slowed to just 1.7% (1037.5K WSPW) in 4Q, and 3.3% for actual wafer starts (987.5K WSPW). Totals were calculated by adding up two new SICAS categories, MOS <0.12μm to >e;0.8μm, and <0.08μm.

With all the slowing factory usage numbers, one key metric may bode well for equipment suppliers — the 300mm ramp continues to gain steam. Global chipmakers added another 7.7% more 300mm capacity in 4Q (781.9K WSPW in 200mm equivalent) and increased output by 10.4% (to 340.6K WSPW), which tightened utilization rates to a razor-thin 98.0%. That’s for a segment that now represents 37% of total IC capacity and 40% of production, vs. 29%-30% for each a year ago.

TOTAL MOS
…………….1Q04………2Q04………3Q04………4Q04………1Q05………2Q05………3Q05………4Q05………1Q06………2Q06………3Q06………4Q06………1Q07………2Q07………3Q07………4Q07

Capacity (WSPW x 1000)
…………..1265.3…..1297.0…..1345.3…..1363.4…..1403.9…..1427.6…..1482.9…..1538.2…..1611.0…..1660.4…..1723.3…..1799.8…..1794.4…..1895.4…..2019.1…..2044.8
% Q-Q…….2.4………..2.5………..3.7………..1.3………..3.0………..1.7………..3.9………..3.7………..4.7………..3.1………..3.8………..4.4……….-0.3………..5.6………..6.5………..1.3
% Y-Y…….10.6………8.4……….9.5……….10.3………11.0………10.1………10.2………12.8………14.8………16.3……….16.2……….17.0……….11.4……….14.2……..17.2……..13.6

Actual (WSPW x 1000)
…………..1190.0…..1240.6…..1249.6…..1179.0…..1201.6…..1278.1…..1345.7…..1424.3…..1453.5…..1524.7…..1534.7…..1568.6…..1569.2…..1700.4…..1821.7…..1855.3
% Q-Q………4.6…………4.3……….0.7…………-5.6………….1.9………..6.4…………5.3………….5.8…………2.1……….4.9………….0.7…………2.2…………0.0…………8.4…..7.1…..1.8
% Y-Y………24.5………20.0………14.0………….3.6………….1.0…………3.0…………7.7………..20.8………21.0……….19.3……….14.0………..10.1……….8.0………11.5…..18.7…..18.3

Utilization
rate………………94.0…………95.7…………92.9………….86.5…………85.6…………89.5…………90.7………….92.6…………90.2…………91.8…………89.1………..87.2………..87.4………..89.7…………90.2…………90.7

TOTAL ICs
…………….1Q04………2Q04………3Q04………4Q04………1Q05………2Q05………3Q05………4Q05………1Q06………2Q06………3Q06………4Q06………1Q07………2Q07………3Q07………4Q07

Capacity (WSPW x 1000)
…………..1372.5……1405.8……1454.3……1466.4……1508.3……1529.9…..1580.1…..1634.7…..1702.8…..1744.4…..1808.0…..1883.7…..1871.9…..1971.6…..2092.7…..2117.9
% Q-Q………2.4………….2.4………….3.5………….0.8………….2.9………….1.4…………3.3………..3.5………….4.2…………2.4…………3.6…………4.2………..-0.6………..5.3…..6.1…..1.2
% Y-Y……….9.8………….7.5…………..8.6…………9.4…………..9.9………….8.8…………8.7………11.5……….12.9………14.0……….14.4……….15.2……….9.9……..13.0…..15.7…..12.4

Actual (WSPW x 1000)
…………..1281.6……1340.9……1345.2……1260.9…..1279.6…..1362.5…..1424.0…..1500.4…..1524.6…..1591.2…..1600.3…..1628.3…..1629.9…..1760.2…..1881.2…..1914.5
% Q-Q………4.4………….4.6………….0.3…………-6.3…………1.5…………6.5…………4.5…………5.4…………1.6………..4.4…………0.6………….1.8………..0.1…………8.0…..6.9…..1.8
% Y-Y……..23.9………..19.3………..13.2………….2.7……….-0.2…………1.6…………5.9……….19.0……….19.1………16.8………12.4………….8.5…………6.9………10.6…..17.6…..17.6

Utilization
rate………………93.4…………95.4………….92.5…………86.0…………84.8……….89.1…………90.1…………91.8…………89.5…………91.2…………88.5…………86.4…………87.1…………89.3…………89.9…………90.4

WaferNEWS source: SICAS