(July 14, 2008) SAN FRANCISCO — Setting the tone for the week’s events, Stan Myers lead off SEMICON West’s opening press conference, presenting the latest trends worldwide, midyear equipment forecast by market segment, and reporting the findings of the SEMI equipment productivity working group’s (EPWG).
In the assembly and packaging sector, Myers pointed to a 14% decline in equipment revenue from 2007 to 2008; a smaller percentage in comparison with the overall equipment forcast, which declined 20% overall. Additionally, forecast statistics indicate a rebound in the packaging sector slightly above 2007 numbers by 2010. Test and wafer processing will rebound at a slower pace.
On the materials side, Myers noted the slow but steady growth of the past few years will continue, but is entering a critical period. “The oil and energy crisis is affecting the chemical producers, hitting raw material prices for semi and solar suppliers.”
Myers also discussed the controversial topic of the industry’s eventual transition to 450-mm wafers, reporting findings of the EPWG. “The semiconductor industry is at a critical and important point in time,” he noted. “The decisions we make now will impact the future.”
The EPWG examined facts and myths surrounding the implication that the transition is necessary for the continuation of Moore’s Law, and cost of transistors. After conducting studies industry wide, the group determined that change to a larger wafer size in itself does not lead to significantly reduced costs, and that cost reductions for 300 mm were the result of other factors, such as the use of factory automation and ceasing to make improvements at 200 mm. Ultimately, the group recommends holding off on the transition for the time being.
“Sometime it might make sense,” said Myers, “Now is not the time. The industry should stay focused on smaller, cheaper, faster.” He added that as there are limited R&D funds available, focus should be on where those dollars can be best invested. Myers pointed to final manufacturing and materials as areas of concern that should be addressed first.