July 27, 2011 – BUSINESS WIRE — Organic light emitting diode (OLED) lighting can be manufactured into aesthetically pleasing, unique products. However, the immature technology is costly today, and even with a price decline of more than an order of magnitude over the next 10 years, OLED lights will remain uncompetitive with other lighting options, Lux Research finds. OLED lighting will comprise a $58 million market in 2020.
Lux Research expects OLED lighting costs to drop from $18/lumen today to $0.71/lumen on glass and $0.18/lumen on flexible substrates by 2020 — not enough to encourage broad adoption. There is no "killer application" for OLED lighting that could catapult the LED technology to high-volume manufacturing, which would drop costs further, laments Jonathan Melnick, a Lux Research Analyst and lead author of "Finding the End of the Tunnel for OLED Lighting."
Lux Research considered potential applications for OLED lighting by market segment for the report: Designer lighting, luminaires, general illumination, wearable lighting, automotive, and aerospace. OLED form factors benefit designer lighting, where aesthetic imperatives can trump price. Commercial flexible panels, expected on the scene in 2015, will boost adoption in this market. The designer lighting market for OLEDs will reach $32 million in 2020.
Luminaires will be the second largest market, hitting $22 million in 2020. The cost of OLED lamps, which can reach to thousands of dollars each, will be prohibitive for many prospective customers.
Flexible OLED lighting will find its niche, beating out conventional glass panels. In 2020, of the $58 million OLED lighting market, Lux Research projects 63% will be flexible substrates.
The report, "Finding the End of the Tunnel for OLED Lighting," analyzes prospects for OLED lighting fixtures. Lux Research provides strategic advice and on-going intelligence for emerging technologies. Visit www.luxresearchinc.com for more information.
The situation is different for OLED displays.