August 24, 2011 — The IC industry, which had a phenomenal growth year in 2010, is in a cautious mode under greater macro-economic uncertainty and hesitancy. Some positive news has emerged from data within IC Insight’s Mid-Year Update, such as the 200 billion IC shipment milestone in 2011, and the $300 billion mark expected in 2013.
IC Insights lowered its 2011 worldwide semiconductor industry growth forecast to 5% recently, with its 2011 IC market forecast falling to 4% growth.
However, IC sales will exceed $300 billion for the first time in 2013. The IC market first topped $10 billion in 1980, $100 billion in 1995, and $200 billion in 2005. While 10 years passed from $100 billion to $200 billion, the $200 billion to $300 billion jump will take only 8.
Total IC unit shipments should top 200 billion for the first time in 2011. More than 100 billion will be analog devices, an unprecendented number. Growth will be strongest in MOS memory devices (2008-2015), with average annual growth of 12%. NAND flash memory is also growing impressively: 20% average annual growth in the same period, thanks to surging tablet PC, smartphone, and solid-state drive sales. Smartphones contain nine times more NAND flash than a regular cellphone.
Smartphone shipments will grow 60% in 2011 (440 million units), continuing the strong growth cycle (56%) established in 2010. Between 1Q10 and 4Q11, quarterly smartphone shipments are expected to rise by an average of 13% per quarter.
The largest growth for IC application segments will belong to automotive chips. Analog vehicle chips will see 32% market growth in 2011. The Automotive Special Purpose Logic/MPR segment and 32-bit MCUs won’t be far behind. Sophisticated safety systems, driver information systems, and engine control units will keep the automotive IC market active through 2015. Also read: Automotive MEMS sensors recalculating for growth after 2010-2011 disruptions
Another segment experiencing change is portable computing, with touch-screen tablets favoring ARM-based processors. Intel and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are "scrambling" to compete with ARM-based processors, which were used in more than 90% of the 17 million tablets sold in 2010. Look for ARM to dominate in 2011 as well, and watch out for ARM on x86 MPU’s familiar turf, such as desktop PCs and network servers.
IC Insights’ Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report is a part of IC Insights new 2011 "Half-Year" McClean Report service. View http://www.icinsights.com/services/mcclean-report/ for more information.
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