NAND overtakes DRAM spending: 2011 capex predictions

August 24, 2011 — Semiconductor capital spending will expand almost 12% this year, approaching $63 billion, as large foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) forge ahead with capacity additions and technology migration. Expect a 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7% 2010-2015.

Foundry spending will grow by 36% in 2011, outpacing IDM spending by 30%. Foundry spending will account for a full quarter of total semi industry capex from 2011-2015. Semiconductor assembly and test services (SATS) companies are expected to contribute 7% to capital expenditures.

Significant industry structure changes will have long-term implications:
NAND flash spending will overtake DRAM for the first time in 2011 and it won’t look back, outpacing DRAM through most of the foreseeable future. Despite NAND’s surging market, the memory category overall will spend less year over year (YOY) than in 2010.

Spending on logic and other non-memory products will grow 25-30%.

View Gartner’s report, Market Trends: Logic and Foundry Suppliers Drive 2011 Capex Strength to learn more:

See Gartner’s 2010-2015 forecast summary here.

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