October 17, 2011 — 2011 semiconductor sales have taken a hit from macro-economic trends in Europe and the US, as well as Japan’s and other natural disasters, says Semico. As consumer confidence remains low and inventories persist at higher-than-normal levels, Semico predicts a tablet market shakeout, lower semiconductor prices and demand, and different growth levels in different semiconductor sectors.
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| Figure. 2011 wafer demand by product, by technology node. SOURCE: Semico. |
Semiconductor revenues will decline by 1.4% in 2011. Semiconductor units will grow 3.9% over 2010: modest levels compared to 25% growth year-over-year from 2009 to 2010. Wafer demand will also trend up in the single digits, at 6.5% growth, Semico predicts.
The growth is impacting product segments differently:
NAND chips: over 20% growth
DRAM units: -1.6%
DSP: decline in unit sales
Wireless communication: over 20% sales growth.
In 2011, demand for 45nm and smaller node wafers will bump up to 24.0% of total wafer demand (these nodes commanded 16.7% of total demand in 2010). Semicon calls 45nm chips the "sweet spot" for foundries. GlobalFoundries is on track to launch 32nm; TSMC is seeing weaker-than-expected demand for 28nm.
The Semico Wafer Demand Forecast is published quarterly and includes a breakout of wafer demand by semiconductor device by technology node for five years. The Semico IPI is a monthly report that provides accurate, forward-looking predictions on the direction and strength of the semiconductor market twelve months in the future. Semico is a semiconductor marketing & consulting research company.
To buy the 3rd Quarter Wafer Demand Forecast and the IPI Report as a single issue, or sign up for the entire year, contact Debi Antoni at 623-387-4650 or [email protected].