Semiconductor fab equipment spending forecast, 2011 wrap-up

December 6, 2011 — SEMI projects that worldwide sales of new semiconductor manufacturing equipment will reach $41.8 billion in 2011, according to the year-end edition of the SEMI Capital Equipment Forecast, released by SEMI at the annual SEMICON Japan exposition. Equipment revenues of $41.8 billion are roughly equivalent with 2007 investment levels.

SEMI expects, following a 151% market increase in 2010, the equipment market to expand by 4.7% in 2011. Capex will decline about 10.8% in 2012, then resume growth in 2013.

Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI, called the modest rate of increase "expected" and "not surprising…given the exceptional growth in the market from 2009 to 2010." McGuirk notes that this is the nature of highly cyclical markets, like the semiconductor industry.

Wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is expected to increase 9.3% in 2011 to almost $32.7 billion. Assembly and packaging equipment will decline by 12.5% to $3.4 billion in 2011. The market for semiconductor test equipment will decline by 10.3%, reaching $3.7 billion this year.

Growth is expected in Europe (66.9%), North America (53.0%), Japan (31.2%), and China (2.3%) year-over-year in 2011. North America became the largest market for equipment with $8.8 billion, followed by Taiwan ($8.1 billion), South Korea ($8.0 billion), and Japan ($5.8 billion). Taiwan, South Korea, and Rest of World experienced negative growth rates in 2011.

In 2012, only South Korea is expected to have positive growth (7.5%). In 2013, the market is expected to rebound for all regions except South Korea, due to high growth in 2012.

The following results are given in terms of market size in billions of U.S. dollars and percentage growth over the prior year:

Forecast by Equipment Segment

Equipment Type	2010**	2011 Forecast	% Chg	2012 Forecast	% Chg	2013 Forecast	% Chg
Wafer Processing	29.91	32.68	9.3%	28.90	-11.6%	31.27	8.2%
Test	4.15	3.72	-10.3%	3.56	-4.4%	3.58	0.5%
Assembly & Packaging	3.88	3.39	-12.5%	3.04	-10.4%	3.25	6.8%
Other*	1.99	2.00	0.8%	1.78	-11.0%	1.96	9.8%
Total	$39.93	$41.80	4.7%	$37.28	-10.8%	$40.05	7.4%

Forecast by Region

Region	2010**	2011 Forecast	% Chg	2012 Forecast	% Chg	2013 Forecast	% Chg
Taiwan	11.25	8.05	-28.4%	6.88	-14.6%	8.33	21.1%
South Korea	8.63	7.99	-7.5%	8.59	7.5%	8.36	-2.7%
N. America	5.75	8.80	53.0%	6.77	-23.1%	7.20	6.3%
Japan	4.44	5.82	31.2%	5.23	-10.2%	5.69	8.8%
Rest of World	3.84	3.47	-9.7%	2.93	-15.5%	3.15	7.5%
China	3.68	3.77	2.3%	3.53	-6.2%	3.80	7.7%
Europe	2.34	3.90	66.9%	3.35	-14.1%	3.52	4.9%
Total	$39.93	$41.80	4.7%	$37.28	-10.8%	$40.05	7.4%

Source: SEMI November 2011

* Totals and percentages may differ due to rounding of numbers
** 2010 data was revised upwards about one percent. The revision is due to the addition of missing company data and corrected input.

The Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) from SEMI provides comprehensive market data for the global semiconductor equipment market. A subscription includes three reports: the monthly SEMI Book-to-Bill Report, which offers an early perspective of the trends in the equipment market; the monthly Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (SEMS), a detailed report of semiconductor equipment bookings and billings for seven regions and over 22 market segments; and the SEMI Semiconductor Equipment Consensus Forecast, which provides an outlook for the semiconductor equipment market.

SEMI is a global industry association serving the nano- and microelectronics manufacturing supply chains. For more information, visit www.semi.org

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