July 13, 2012 — Barclays Capital Inc. analysts held conversations with the light-emitting diode (LED) supply chain at SEMICON West, this week in San Francisco, CA. The show confirmed for Barclays that Q2 2012 orders for metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) tools remained flattish with the trough-like Q1 numbers.
Top MOCVD suppliers Veeco and Aixtron confirm that activity is picking up into H2 2012. Sub-component suppliers to the MOCVD makers, as well as adjacent LED equipment suppliers, are anticipating gradual order growth in Q3 and Q4 2012.
Key accounts that are in the process or on the cusp of placing orders in the remainder of 2012 include Sanan and 3E in China, Toyoda Gosei and Showa Denko in Japan, a little bit of Epistar in Taiwan exiting the year, and likely Samsung in Q4 for equipment installation in 2013. Additionally, Nichia also appears to be actively ramping capacity, though this will not benefit Veeco or Aixtron, given Nichia’s internal tool production.
Barclays Capital estimates that MOCVD chamber shipments will pick up from 67 in H1 2012 to 80 in H2. The risk to MOCVD orders comes from the hard disk drive (HDD) sector, and how much it decelerates in H2, though service should provide a buffer here.
Get the full report from Barclays at http://live.barcap.com/PRC/servlets/dv.search?contentPubID=FC1838394&bcllink=decode