January 7, 2012 – As the annual Consumer Electronics Show and hordes of techie enthusiasts descends over Las Vegas this week, one display technology — 4K × 2K — is expected to grab most of the attention, says NPD DisplaySearch.

4K LCD TV shipments will exceed OLED TV shipments through 2015, the firm says, due to both delays by OLED TV makers and increased promotion of 4K LCD TVs. Many Chinese brands are currently launching their own products domestically. OLED TVs should start hitting the market in 2013, but with low volumes and high prices. Note that 4K technology can be applied to OLED TVs as well, and eventually will be introduced for some premium TV segments, the firm points out.

"The global TV market—and North America in particular—are experiencing either slow or negative growth in 2012, and brands are eager to demonstrate new technologies that might create a spike in demand," stated Paul Gagnon, Director for Global TV Research at NPD DisplaySearch. Gagnon added, “OLED TV was prominently featured during the previous two CES shows as the next-generation TV display technology, but the lack of market launch so far has caused several set makers to start emphasizing 4K×2K resolution TVs for premium market segments."

Forecast for OLED TV and 4K LCD TV. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch)

Overall TV demand is expected to fall in 2012, as consumers worldwide grapple with tough economic conditions and TV prices fall at only marginal rates. DisplaySearch estimates LCD TV shipments in 2012 were 205 million, slightly lower than in 2011, while plasma TV shipments sunk 24% to 13 million. The firm sees 2013 initially taking shape as a flat market due to persistent economic uncertainty, but ultimately smoothing into gradual growth as conditions improve and as price declines in the TV market accelerate.