TECHCET’s outlook for 2016 for semiconductor process materials

By L. Shon-Roy, TECHCET Group

2015 is proving to be a net positive year, albeit that slowing has been occurring in the materials market segment. The semiconductor industry is marking a slowdown in response to lagging PC sales and decreasing growth rate of smart phones. Inventory right sizing is also occurring which is affecting the supply chain.

Gas and wet chemicals revenues for 2015 are expected to be up by ~8% to 9% for 2015, and for 2016 growth is expected to be a slower ~5% to 6%. Although a slower year expected in 2016, this could change, given China’s continued moves to stimulate growth in their economy and the US’ further delay in increasing interest rates.

The exception to market growth in the gas and wet chemicals segment include materials and precursors that support the leading edge and 3D devices, i.e. atomic layer deposition materials, multi-patterning dielectrics, and atomic layer etching / cleaning materials. CMP consumables will also continue to grow. – 2015 revenues are estimated to grow 5% over 2014. However, increased competition in tungsten slurries and continued cost reduction measures may force prices and revenues down making for a growth rate closer to 4% for 2016.

For the consumable equipment component materials market segment, its strong tie to equipment sales will slow revenue growth in 2016, expected to be down by next year, impacting revenues by approximately -5%. This will be a difficult shift from what some components fabricators claim was a great year, albeit most of the healthy growth was seen in Asia vs. the US.