Semico’s Inflection Point Indicator is a model developed by Semico Research, which has a history of accurately predicting semiconductor revenue inflection points four quarters in advance. After analyzing current trends, Semico announced this model indicates the semiconductor industry is repeating the pattern from 2011-2012, albeit at a muted level. Just in the past 4-5 years, the major end markets served by the semiconductor industry–tablets, notebooks, smartphones–have matured, causing growth rates to slow. On top of that, compared to 2012, most of the world’s economies are forecast to be weaker in 2016, with the exception of India. Finally, DRAM prices are expected to be weaker this year, compared to 2012. The positive growth in 2013-2014 was primarily due to the memory shortage and the subsequent rising prices.

Average selling prices (ASPs) in January recovered on lower revenues, which were down 6% year over year. Although ASPs rose 4.0% in January, they are still historically low.

Semico president Jim Feldhan commented, “In the past 8 months, the industry has seen ASPs in the $0.41 range 5 times. One has to go back to May 2009 to find a lower price, and 2009 was not a good year!”

The IPI Report is Semico’s most popular report series that accurately predicts semiconductor revenue inflection points four quarters in advance.