IC Insights will release the 2017 edition of its IC Market Drivers Report later this month.  The newly updated report reviews many of the end-use system applications that are presently impacting the IC market and are forecast to help propel it through 2020.

Total smartphone shipments are forecast to grow by 4% in 2016 to 1,490 million units after jumping by 13% to 1,430 million in 2015.  Moreover, smartphone shipments are forecast to grow by 5% in 2017, reaching 1,565 million units.  Overall, smartphone unit shipments are now forecast to grow at single-digit annual rates through 2020.

Smartphones accounted for over 50% of total quarterly cellphone shipments for the first time ever in 1Q13 (Figure 1).  Smartphone shipments fell to 340 million units in 1Q16 yet still represented 80% of total cellphones shipped that quarter, the same penetration as in 4Q15.  In 4Q16, it is expected that smartphone shipments will surge to a new record high of 437 million and represent 84% of all cellphones shipped that quarter.  On an annual basis, smartphones first surpassed the 50% penetration level in 2013 (54%) and are forecast to represent 97% of total cellphone shipments in 2020.

In contrast to smartphones, total cellphone handset shipments are forecast to decline by 2% in 2016 and are expected to drop by 1% in 2017 (Figure 2).  As shown, non-smartphone cellphone sales dropped by 30% in 2015 and are forecast to fall by another 22% this year.  Moreover, IC Insights expects the 2017 non-smartphone cellphone unit shipment decline to be steeper than 2016’s drop with a decline of 26%.

Figure 1

Figure 2