Dec. 5, 2001 – San Jose, CA – The deterioration of the current semiconductor capital spending cycle is evident in the year-end 2001 edition of the SEMI Consensus Forecast, which was presented by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) at a press conference during the SEMICON Japan exposition.
SEMI estimates that the equipment market will decline by 38% in 2001 to $29.6 billion. The forecast indicates that 2001 will be a year in which the capital equipment market will post the single greatest annual decline in the sector’s history while also marking its second largest year on record.
“Following its best-ever year in 2000, the semiconductor equipment industry will suffer its steepest annual decline in 2001 due to the weakened global economy, reduced end-user demand, oversupply of semiconductor devices and excess manufacturing capacity,” said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. “While expectations are for the market to remain flat, to slightly down in 2002, the majority of industry participants believe that this quarter marks the cyclic trough for equipment orders.”
The SEMI Consensus Forecast includes input from 60 of the trade association’s member companies in the US, Europe, and Japan. Data was collected from surveys issued between October and November 2001 by the SEMI industry research and statistics department. Respondents represent approximately 80% of the total sales volume for the global semiconductor equipment industry.
By region, total equipment sales are expected to reach $28.7 billion in 2002, with North America accounting for $8.5 billion, 2% above the $8.3 billion in regional sales forecast for 2001. Japan follows with expected sales of $7.1 billion, 13% below the forecast 2001 sales of $8.2 billion. Europe should post $3.87 billion in sales, nearly 4% below the $4 billion expected this year. The “Rest of World” regional category, which includes China and other Asia-Pacific countries, is expected to see 6% growth in 2002 to $3.5 billion.
Projecting forward, the survey respondents anticipate cyclic upturn and vigorous market growth, with 29% increase in equipment sales to $37 billion in 2003 and 23% growth to nearly $46 billion in 2004.