July 13, 2011 — SEMI’s Dan Tracy expects 12.1% growth in equipment spending overall for the semiconductor manufacturing sector in 2011. SEMI projects 2011 semiconductor equipment sales to reach $44.33 billion according to the mid-year edition of the SEMI Capital Equipment Forecast. Tracy discusses the forecast with Debra Vogler, senior technical editor.
Fab equipment spending will grow 19% to $35.1 billion, but assembly and packaging expenditures will drop: SEMI predicts -18% to $3.18 billion. Test equipment spending will also dip, down 5.5% (to $3.92 billion) from 2011.
The investments are going to upgrades to advanced technology in wafer processing and packaging. Some of the growth also results from investments in existing fabs, adding capacity. SEMI notes that 2011 will be one of the biggest spending years ever for semiconductor manufacturing equipment; a record in the wafer fab sector particularly.
Taiwan is expected to be the largest market for equipment spending in both 2011 and 2012. In 2011, North America will be the second largest market in equipment spending ($9.25 billion), with an almost 61% increase in spending over the previous year. Korea will be third in terms of equipment spending ($7.98 billion). All regions should experience growth.
| Region |
2010 (all amounts are in US$ billions) |
2011 forecast | % Change | 2012 forecast | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 2.33 | 3.64 | 56.2 | 3.94 | 8.2 |
| Japan | 4.44 | 5.12 | 15.3 | 5.15 | 0.6 |
| North America | 5.76 | 9.25 | 60.6 | 8.26 | -10.7 |
| Korea | 8.33 | 7.98 | -4.2 | 8.08 | 1.3 |
| Taiwan | 11.19 | 10.62 | -5.1 | 10.66 | 0.4 |
| China | 3.63 | 3.89 | 7.2 | 3.99 | 2.6 |
| Rest of world (ROW) | 3.85 | 3.83 | -0.5 | 3.71 | -3.1 |
| TOTAL | 38.54 | 44.33 | 12.1 | 43.79 | -1.2 |
Look for 2012 spending to be basically flat, adds Tracy, with single-digit dips in wafer fab and bumps packaging and test.
| Equipment type |
2010 (all amounts are in US$ billions) |
2011 forecast | % Change | 2012 forecast | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wafer processing | 29.54 | 35.10 | 18.8 | 34.39 | -2.0 |
| Semiconductor test | 4.15 | 3.92 | -5.5 | 4.06 | 3.6 |
| Assembly and packaging | 3.88 | 3.18 | -18.0 | 3.26 | 2.5 |
| Other | 1.98 | 2.13 | 7.6 | 2.08 | -2.3 |
| TOTAL | 39.55 | 44.33 | 12.1 | 43.79 | -1.2 |
Want a second opinion? Check out the 2011-2012 semiconductor fab capex forecasts from Needham, Credit Suisse, RBC Capital, and Barclays. And more data from Gartner, VLSI, and IC Insights.
Subscribe to Solid State Technology/Advanced Packaging.
Follow Solid State Technology on Twitter.com via editors Pete Singer, twitter.com/PetesTweetsPW and Debra Vogler, twitter.com/dvogler_PV_semi.