DEC. 3–CHIBA, Japan–Leading manufacturers of semiconductor equipment expect sales to increase this year to $21.4 billion, more than eight percent above the $19.8 billion in sales posted in 2002 according to the year-end edition of the Capital Equipment Consensus Forecast, released by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (San Jose, Calif.)

Survey respondents anticipate the industry to sell $21.4 billion of new chip manufacturing, testing and assembly equipment in 2003.

The industry is expected to experience a robust recovery in 2004, rising 39 percent to $29.6 billion, and continue into 2005 with 18 percent growth to $35 billion. In 2006, as new capacity goes into production, the industry cycle is expected to contract 6.6 percent.

“Recent improvements in bookings and global economic indicators are giving equipment companies reason to be more optimistic about the short-term prospects for a robust recovery in the equipment market,” said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. “Recovery in the global semiconductor market, coupled with increased capacity utilization, the introduction of newtechnologies, and improving sales of electronics support the view that 2004 and 2005 should be strong years for the capital equipment market.”

Recovery in 2004 is projected across all technology segments. Wafer process equipment, which is largest segment by dollar value, is expected to rise 38.6% to $19.8 billion, with other front end equipment growing 32.7% to $2.1 billion. Test equipment, which is showing the strongest growth in 2003, should see sales increasing 40.4% to $5.5 billion, and assembly and packaging equipment is forecast to rise 40.3% to $2.2 billion.

For 2003, Japan and Korea are expected to show the strongest growth, rising 46% to $5.7 billion and 70% to $2.8 billion respectively. The rest of world region, which includes China, should grow 15% this year to $3.1 billion, followed by Europe at 11% to $2.4 billion. Sales in Taiwan are expected to contract 16% in 2003 to $2.9 billion, and North America is forecast to decline 24% this year to $4.5 billion, however both regions are expected to rebound strongly next year as all regions are forecast to show robust growth in 2004.

The SEMI Year-end Consensus Forecast is based on interviews conducted between October and November 2003 with North American and European companies representing a majority of the total sales volume for the global semiconductor equipment industry.