An oversupply of polysilicon will double in 2018 despite strong demand in solar and semiconductor markets, according to a report Opportunities in The Solar Cell Market For Thin Film Technology, recently published by The Information Network (www.theinformationnet.com), a New Tripoli, PA-based market research company.
Consumption of polysilicon is booming as the semiconductor industry, particularly DRAM and NAND, is reaching record revenue and shipment growth. Solar installations are also growing strongly, increasing 35.5% in 2016.
Nevertheless, increased capacity put in place by polysilicon incumbents and capacity growth of Chinese manufactures pegged to increase 35% in 2017 is giving rise to an oversupply that will grow from 7.1% in 2016 to 15.0% in 2018.
As shown in the Table below, the industry will see an oversupply of 76,000 metric tonnes in 2018.
| 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | |
| New PV (MW) | 78,260 | 86,909 | 101,361 |
| Inventory Requirement (MW) | 3,913 | 4,345 | 5,068 |
| Inventory % of demand | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Total PV Module Shipments (MW) | 82,173 | 91,254 | 106,429 |
| Efficiency loss | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total PV Cell Shipments (MW) | 84,638 | 93,992 | 109,622 |
| Thin Film Supply (MW) | 4,696 | 4,606 | 4,460 |
| Polysilicon Consumed (Tonne/MW) | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Total Solar Poly Required (MT) | 423,696 | 464,804 | 546,845 |
| Poly demand from Semis (MT) | 34,180 | 40,119 | 39,044 |
| Total Poly Demand (MT) | 457,876 | 504,923 | 585,889 |
| Poly Supply (MT) | 490,250 | 580,910 | 640,453 |
| Over Supply (MT) | 32,374 | 75,987 | 54,564 |
| % Over Supply | 7.1% | 15.0% | 9.3% |
| Source: The Information Network (www.theinformationnet.com) | |||
“In addition to polysilicon capacity increases, the transition from slurry wire slicing to diamond wire is creating more silicon wafers by reducing kerf loss, adding to the oversupply noted Dr. Robert Castellano, President of The Information Network.
The Information Network is a consulting and market research company addressing the semiconductor, LCD, HDD, and solar industries.