By Ji-Won Cho, SEMI Korea
SEMI Korea has hosted a SEMI member event every year for its members since 2008 to provide networking opportunities and insight on the ever-changing issues in the industry. This year, over 225 SEMI members in Korea from 132 companies ─ including the chipmakers, Samsung and Dongbu Hitek ─ participated in SEMI Members Day on October 6. Almost 70 percent of the attendees were executive level. Five speakers shared their thought-provoking perspectives: global semiconductor outlook, technology trends, flexible AMOLED technology, autonomous vehicle, and robot industry.
Soo Kyum Kim, director at IDC Korea, presented “Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook.” Kim pointed out that global semiconductor market will decrease 2.9 percent in 2016 and recover slightly 0.6 percent in 2017 while the dedicated foundry market will face a short correction. He also forecasted that the CAGR of global semiconductor market will be 2.6 percent between 2017 and 2020. This growth will be led by non-traditional areas; automotive, industrial and smart home. He believes that IoT and Intelligent system penetration will drive both MPU and MCU in processor market.
Sei Cheol Lee, principal analyst at NH Securities, presented “Semiconductor Technology Trends.” Lee discussed how the solid state drives (SSD) and UFS markets are rapidly growing and 3D NAND stack will move from 48 to 64 layers. Lee added that increasing layers will lead to more dry etch than wet etch in processes and incease in KrF patterning, PECVD/ALD, and test. Lee forecasted that the test market will grow to $3 billion in 2017 from only $2.2 billion in 2016 due to high-end SSD and DDR4’s bus speed enhancement.
Minsu Kang, analyst at IHS Technology, spoke about the Flexible AMOLED Industry Outlook. According to his presentation, flexible displays are mainly used for smartwatch and smartphone, but set manufacturers are also trying to apply them with foldable or rollable form-factors. Flexible AMOLED has clear advantages for flexible display technology, in terms of form-factor, size, PPI and picture quality. He pointed out that flexible AMOLED was expected to increase to over 13 percent of OLED panel shipment in 2016, and it will continue to grow rapidly because more set manufacturers are adopting the technology. Apple may try to apply it to their smartphone in 2017.
Kang highlighted that many panel manufacturers have been trying to increase flexible AMOLED capacity since 2015, but need to develop experience. He added that the curved forms of flexible display will be the mainstream until 2020, but foldable forms may be the mainstream after. It depends on how the innovation resonates with the user experience
Seyong Kim, senior manager at Renesas Electronics Korea, presented “Technology Trends of the Autonomous Vehicle.” He said it may be fully realized between 2025 and 2030. Each country is now focusing on establishing the safety standards as like ISO 26262 to gain the initiatives.
Concerning the connected car, he mentioned the most important issue was security. Kim also added that a growing autonomous vehicle industry will need more semiconductors but the market share likely will remain under 10 percent of the entire semiconductor market.
Dongkyeong Kim, head of R&D center at Future Robot, wrapped up the day with a presentation on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Intelligent Robots in the semiconductor industry. Kim stated that development of semiconductor technology has driven the Big Data and AI eras and it will increasingly result in strong demand for semiconductors. According to Kim, globally the robot industry has invested 1.8 billion USD and 50 percent of the amount was invested by China in 2015.
The attendees were interested in the topics and an ongoing dialogue took place during the Q&A after each presentation. In the survey, more than 92 percent of attendees responded that they were satisfied. The attendees recommended additional topics for next year’s program, including equipment and materials outlook, advanced packaging market outlook, and technology roadmap.
Jin Soo Ko, VP of Teradyne said, “SEMI Members Day was the best in terms of agenda and contents since I attended from 2007. I am very satisfied with all programs and networking opportunities provided by SEMI.”
Hyun-Dae Cho, president of SEMI Korea, said, “The SEMI Korea Members Day connects our members to peers and industry executives and gives first-hand information on the trends and technology in the industry. I hope SEMI members enjoyed the opportunities through this annual event.”
For information on becoming a SEMI member, visit www.semi.org/en/Membership.