Category Archives: Device Architecture

From the ground-breaking research breakthroughs to the shifting supplier landscape, these are the stories the Solid State Technology audience read the most during 2016.

#1: Moore’s Law did indeed stop at 28nm

In this follow up, Zvi Or-Bach, president and CEO, MonolithIC 3D, Inc., writes: “As we have predicted two and a half years back, the industry is bifurcating, and just a few products pursue scaling to 7nm while the majority of designs stay on 28nm or older nodes.”

#2: Yield and cost challenges at 16nm and beyond

In February, KLA-Tencor’s Robert Cappel and Cathy Perry-Sullivan wrote of a new 5D solution which utilizes multiple types of metrology systems to identify and control fab-wide sources of pattern variation, with an intelligent analysis system to handle the data being generated.

#3: EUVL: Taking it down to 5nm

The semiconductor industry is nothing if not persistent — it’s been working away at developing extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUVL) for many years, SEMI’s Deb Vogler reported in May.

#4: IBM scientists achieve storage memory breakthrough

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM).

#5: ams breaks ground on NY wafer fab

In April, ams AG took a step forward in its long-term strategy of increasing manufacturing capacity for its high-performance sensors and sensor solution integrated circuits (ICs), holding a groundbreaking event at the site of its new wafer fabrication plant in Utica, New York.

#6: Foundries takeover 200mm fab capacity by 2018

In January, Christian Dieseldorff of SEMI wrote that a recent Global Fab Outlook report reveals a change in the landscape for 200mm fab capacity.

#7: Equipment spending up: 19 new fabs and lines to start construction

While semiconductor fab equipment spending was off to a slow start in 2016, it was expected to gain momentum through the end of the year. For 2016, 1.5 percent growth over 2015 is expected while 13 percent growth is forecast in 2017.

#8: How finFETs ended the service contract of silicide process

Arabinda Daa, TechInsights, provided a look into how the silicide process has evolved over the years, trying to cope with the progress in scaling technology and why it could no longer be of service to finFET devices.

#9: Five suppliers to hold 41% of global semiconductor marketshare in 2016

In December, IC Insights reported that two years of busy M&A activity had boosted marketshare among top suppliers.

#10: Countdown to Node 5: Moving beyond FinFETs

A forum of industry experts at SEMICON West 2016 discussed the challenges associated with getting from node 10 — which seems set for HVM — to nodes 7 and 5.

BONUS: Most Watched Webcast of 2016: View On Demand Now

IoT Device Trends and Challenges

Presenters: Rajeev Rajan, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, and Uday Tennety, GE Digital

The age of the Internet of Things is upon us, with the expectation that tens of billions of devices will be connected to the internet by 2020. This explosion of devices will make our lives simpler, yet create an array of new challenges and opportunities in the semiconductor industry. At the sensor level, very small, inexpensive, low power devices will be gathering data and communicating with one another and the “cloud.” On the other hand, this will mean huge amounts of small, often unstructured data (such as video) will rippling through the network and the infrastructure. The need to convert that data into “information” will require a massive investment in data centers and leading edge semiconductor technology.

Also, manufacturers seek increased visibility and better insights into the performance of their equipment and assets to minimize failures and reduce downtime. They wish to both cut their costs as well as grow their profits for the organization while ensuring safety for employees, the general public and the environment.

The Industrial Internet is transforming the way people and machines interact by using data and analytics in new ways to drive efficiency gains, accelerate productivity and achieve overall operational excellence. The advent of networked machines with embedded sensors and advanced analytics tools has greatly influenced the industrial ecosystem.

Today, the Industrial Internet allows you to combine data from the equipment sensors, operational data , and analytics to deliver valuable new insights that were never before possible. The results of these powerful analytic insights can be revolutionary for your business by transforming your technological infrastructure, helping reduce unplanned downtime, improve performance and maximize profitability and efficiency.

The Electronic System Design (ESD) Alliance Market Statistics Service (MSS) today announced that the Electronic Design Automation (EDA) industry revenue increased 7.0 percent for Q3 2016 to $2093.7 million, compared to $1957.5 million in Q3 2015. The four-quarters moving average, which compares the most recent four quarters to the prior four quarters, increased by 3.7 percent.

“The industry realized solid growth in Q3, with all of the geographic regions – Americas, EuropeMiddle East and AfricaJapan, and Asia/Pacific – reporting revenue increases,” said Walden C. Rhines, board sponsor for the ESD Alliance MSS and chairman and CEO of Mentor Graphics. “Product categories CAE, Semiconductor IP, IC Physical Design & Verification, and services all reported increases in the third quarter.”

Companies that were tracked employed a record 35,515 professionals in Q3 2016, an increase of 6.2 percent compared to the 33,430 people employed in Q3 2015, and up 1.5 percent compared to Q3 2016.

The complete quarterly MSS report, containing detailed revenue information broken out by both categories and geographic regions, is available to members of the ESD Alliance.

Revenue by product category

Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) generated revenue of $666.7 million in Q3 2016 which represents a 5 percent increase compared to Q3 2015. The four-quarters moving average for CAE decreased 1.2 percent.

IC Physical Design & Verification revenue was $441.3 million in Q3 2016, an 8.2 percent increase compared to Q3 2015. The four-quarters moving average increased 2.8 percent.

Printed Circuit Board and Multi-Chip Module (PCB & MCM) revenue of $162.2 million for Q3 2016 represents a decrease of 0.1 percent compared to Q3 2015. The four-quarters moving average for PCB & MCM increased 0.9 percent.

Semiconductor Intellectual Property (SIP) revenue totaled $720.9 million in Q3 2016, a 10.4 percent increase compared to Q3 2015. The four-quarters moving average increased 10.1 percent.

Services revenue was $102.6 million in Q3 2016, an increase of 3 percent compared to Q3 2015. The four-quarters moving average increased 2.9 percent.

Revenue by region

The Americas, EDA’s largest region, purchased $932.9 million of EDA products and services in Q3 2016, an increase of 3.2 percent compared to Q3 2015. The four-quarters moving average for the Americas increased 1.3 percent.

Revenue in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) increased 2.3 percent in Q3 2016 compared to Q3 2015 on revenues of $297 million. The EMEA four-quarters moving average decreased 0.7 percent.

Third-quarter 2016 revenue from Japan increased 3.9 percent to $213.2 million compared to Q3 2015. The four-quarters moving average for Japan increased 5.5 percent.

The Asia/Pacific (APAC) region revenue increased to $650.6 million in Q3 2016, an increase of 16.6 percent compared to the third quarter of 2015. The four-quarters moving average increased 9 percent.

The complete MSS report, available to the ESD Alliance members, contains additional detail for countries in the Asia/Pacific region.

From artificial intelligence to the Internet of Things (IoT), far-reaching innovations are unfolding in virtually every technology sector around the globe, continuing to change the way consumers, businesses and machines interact while also spurring the next revolution in tech market growth, according to a new white paper from IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

For the white paper, IHS Markit surveyed its leading technology experts, who represent various industry segments including advertising, automotive, connected networks, consumer devices, entertainment, displays, media, semiconductors, telecommunications and others. These analysts were asked to provide their informed predictions for the global technology market in the New Year.

The Top Seven Technology Trends for 2017, as identified in this IHS Markit report and listed in no particular order, are as follows:

Trend #1 – Smart Manufacturing Accelerates With More Real-World Products

  • Companies use IoT to transform how products are made, how supply chains are managed and how customers can influence design.
  • Example: look for automation/operator tech firms to release their own Platforms-as-a Service (PaaS) offering in the cloud as they compete to offer and own IoT projects for the industrial market.

Trend #2 – Artificial Intelligence (AI) Gets Serious

  • Already, personified AI assistants from a handful of companies (Amazon’s Alexa, Apple’s Siri) have access to billions of users via smartphones and other devices.
  • However, even bigger, more profound changes are on their way as levels of human control are ceded directly to AI, such as in autonomous cars or robots.

Trend #3 – The Rise of Virtual Worlds

  • After several years of hype, the operative reality behind virtual, augmented and mixed digital worlds is set to manifest more fully in 2017. The technology for augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) will advance significantly as Facebook, Google and Microsoft consolidate their existing technologies into more exhaustive strategies.
  • New versions of VR-capable game consoles featuring 4K video and high dynamic range (HDR) will also create the medium for high-quality VR content, even if availability will be limited for the next few years.

Trend #4 – The “Meta Cloud” Era Arrives

  • Communication service providers plan to deliver a new wave of innovation, allowing for a single connection to the enterprise and acting as a gateway to multiple cloud service providers. IHS Markit refers to this as the meta cloud.
  • In 2017, new offerings will become available from traditional Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) vendors, coupled with expanded offers from the likes of IBM, Amazon and— most notably—Google via its Tensor chip. Watch for the development and deployment of more specialized silicon in the next two years.

Trend #5 – A Revolution in New Device Formats

  • The development of the consumer drone is the closest example of a product type evolved over the past few years that has quickly gone mass market. 3D printers and pens are heading the same way.
  • The next set of new devices may well materialize at the boundary of cheap 3D printing and inexpensive smartphone components to create completely novel device types and uses.

Trend #6 – Solar Still the Largest Source of Renewable New Power

  • The next year, 2017, will see photovoltaic (PV) technology retaining—and confirming—its position as the planet’s largest source of new renewable power.
  • More than a quarter of all PV capacity added worldwide in 2016 and 2017 will be in the form of solar panels. The growth of solar can be attributed to sharp drops in the cost of PV systems, combined with favorable country policies toward new renewable power.

Trend #7 – Low-Power Technologies Extend Reach to Inaccessible IoT Devices

  • The first batch of low-power, wide-area networks (LPWAN) will go live around the world in 2017 as an alternative to short-range wireless standards such as Wi-Fi and Bluetooth. LPWAN technologies will connect hard-to-reach, IoT devices more efficiently and at a lower cost, dealing with challenges stemming from range limitation to poor signal strength. As a result, opportunities will open up for telecom providers to support low-bit-rate applications.
  • In turn, the increased availability and low cost of LPWAN technologies will drive connectivity for smart metering, smart building and precision agriculture, among many other applications.

This article originally appeared on SemiMD.com and was featured in the December 2016 issue of Solid State Technology.

By David Lammers, Contributing Editor

When analyst Linley Gwennap is asked about the chances that fully-depleted silicon-on-insulator (FD-SOI) technology will make it in the marketplace, he gives a short history lesson.

First, he makes clear that the discussion is not about “the older SOI,” – the partially depleted SOI that required designers to deal with the so-called “kink effect.” The FD-SOI being offered by STMicroelectronics and Samsung at 28nm design rules, and by GlobalFoundries at 22nm and 12nm, is a different animal: a fully depleted channel, new IP libraries, and no kink effect.

Bulk planar CMOS transistor scaling came to an end at 28nm, and leading-edge companies such as Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and GlobalFoundries moved into the finFET realm for performance-driven products, said Gwennap, founder of The Linley Group (Mountain View, Calif.) and publisher of The Microprocessor Report, said,

While FD-SOI at the 28nm node was offered by STMicrelectronics, with Samsung coming in as a second source, Gwennap said 28nm FD-SOI was not differentiated enough from 28nm bulk CMOS to justify the extra design and wafer costs. “When STMicro came out with 28 FD, it was more expensive than bulk CMOS, so the value proposition was not that great.”

NXP uses 28nm FD-SOI for its iMX 7 and iMX 8 processors, but relatively few other companies did 28nm FD-SOI designs. That may change as 22nm FD-SOI offers a boost in transistor density, and a roadmap to tighter design rules.

“For planar CMOS, Moore’s Law came to a dead end at 28nm. Some companies have looked at finFETs and decided that the cost barrier is just too high. They don’t have anywhere to go; for a few years now those companies have been at 28nm, they can’t justify the move on to finFETs, and they need to figure out how they can offer something new to their customers. For those companies, taking a risk on FD-SOI is starting to look like a good idea,” he said.

A cautious view 

Joanne Itow, foundry analyst at Semico Research (Phoenix), also has been observing the ups and downs of SOI technology over the last two decades. The end of the early heyday, marked by PD-SOI-based products from IBM, Advanced Micro Devices, Freescale Semiconductor, and several game system vendors, has led Itow to take a cautious, Show-Me attitude.

“The SOI proponents always said, ‘this is the breakout node,’ but then it didn’t happen. Now, they are saying the Fmax has better results than finFETs, and while we do see some promising results, I’m not sure everybody knows what to do with it. And there may be bottlenecks,” such as the design tools and IP cores.

Itow said she has talked to more companies that are looking at FD-SOI, and some of them have teams designing products. “So we are seeing more serious activity than before,” Itow said. “I don’t see it being the main Qualcomm process for high-volume products like the applications processors in smartphones. But I do see it being looked at for IoT applications that will come on line in a couple of years. And these things always seem to take longer than you think,” she said.

Sony Corp. has publicly discussed a GPS IC based on 28nm FD-SOI that is being deployed in a smartwatch sold by Huami, a Chinese brand, which is touting the long battery life of the watch when the GPS function is turned on.

GlobalFoundries claims it has more than 50 companies in various stages of development on its 22FDX process, which enters risk production early next year, and the company plans a 12nm FDX offering in several years.

IP libraries put together

The availability of design libraries – both foundation IP and complex cores – is an issue facing FD-SOI. Gwennap said GlobalFoundries has worked with EDA partners, and invested in an IP development company, Invecas, to develop an IP library for its FDX technology. “Even though GlobalFoundries is basically starting from scratch in terms of putting together an IP library, it doesn’t take that long to put together the basic IP, such as the interface cells, that their customers need.

“There is definitely going to be an unusual thing that probably will not be in the existing library, something that either GlobalFoundries or the customers will have to put together. Over time, I believe that the IP portfolio will get built out,” Gwennap said.

The salaries paid to design engineers in Asia tend to be less than half of what U.S.-based designers are paid, he noted. That may open up companies “with a lower cost engineering team” in India, China, Taiwan, and elsewhere to “go off in a different direction” and experiment with FD-SOI, Gwennap said.

Philippe Flatresses, a design architect at STMicro, said with the existing FDSOI ecosystem it is possible to design a complete SoC, including processor cores from ARM Ltd., high speed interfaces, USB, MIPI, memory controllers, and other IP from third-party providers including Synopsys and Cadence. Looking at the FD-SOI roadmap, several technology derivatives are under development to address the RF, ultra-low voltage, and other markets. Flatresses said there is a need to extend the IP ecosystem in those areas.

Wafer costs not a big factor

There was a time when the approximately $500 cost for an SOI wafer from Soitec (Grenoble, France) tipped the scales away from SOI technology for some cost-sensitive applications. Gwennap said when a fully processed 28nm planar CMOS wafer cost about $3,000 from a major foundry, that $500 SOI wafer cost presented a stumbling block to some companies considering FD-SOI.

Now, however, a fully-processed finFET wafer costs $7,000 or more from the major foundries, Gwennap said, and the cost of the SOI wafer is a much smaller fraction of the total cost equation. When companies compare planar FD-SOI to finFETs, that $500 wafer cost, Gwennap said, “just isn’t as important as it used to be. And some of the other advantages in terms of cost savings or power savings are pretty attractive in markets where cost is important, such as consumer and IoT products. They present a good chance to get some key design wins.”

Soitec claims it can ramp up to 1.5 million FD-SOI wafers a year with its existing facility in 18 months, and has the ability to expand to 3 million wafers if market demand expands.

Jamie Schaeffer, the FDX program manager at GlobalFoundries, acknowledges that the SOI wafers are three to four times more expensive than bulk silicon wafers. Schaeffer said a more important cost factor is in the mask set. A 22FDX chip with eight metal layers can be constructed with “just 39 mask layers, compared with 60 for a finFET design at comparable performance levels.” And no double patterning is required for the 22FDX transistors.

Technology advantages claimed

Soitec senior fellow Bich-Yen Nguyen, who spent much of her career at Freescale Semiconductor in technology development, claims several technical advantages for FD-SOI.

FD-SOI has a high transconductance-to-drain current ratio, is superior in terms of the short channel effect, and has a lower fringing and effective capacitance and lower gate resistance, due partly to a gate-first process approach to the high-k/metal gate steps, Nguyen said.

Back and forward biasing is another unique feature of FD-SOI. “When you apply body-bias, the fT and fmax curves shift to a lower Vt.  This is an additional benefit allowing the RF designer to achieve higher fT and fmax at much lower gate voltage (Vg) over a wider Vg range.  That is a huge benefit for the RF designer,” she said. Figure 1 illustrates the unique benefit of back-bias.

“To get the full benefit of body bias for power savings or performance improvement, the design teams must consider this feature from the very beginning of product development,” she said. While biasing does not require specific EDA tools, and can be achieve with an extended library characterization, design architects must define the best corners for body bias in order to gain in performance and power. And design teams must implement “the right set of IPs to manage body biasing,” such as a BB generator, BB monitors, and during testing, a trimming methodology.

Nguyen acknowledged that finFETs have drive-current advantages. But compared with bulk CMOS, FD-SOI has superior electrostatics, which enables scaling of analog/RF devices while maintaining a high transistor gain. And drive current increases as gate length is scaled, she said.

For 14/16 nm finFETs, Nguyen said the gate length is in the 25-30 nm range. The 22FDX transistors have a gate length in the 20nm range. “The very short gate length results in a small gate capacitance, and total lower gate resistance,” she said.

For fringing capacitance, the most conservative number is that 22nm FD-SOI is 30 percent lower than leading finFETs, though she said “finFETs have made a lot of progress in this area.”

Analog advantages

It is in the analog and RF areas that FD-SOI offers the most significant advantages, Nguyen said. The fT and fMAX of 350 and 300 GHz, respectively, have been demonstrated by GlobalFoundries for its 22nm FD-SOI technology. For analog devices, she claimed that FD-SOI offers better transistor mismatch, high intrinsic device gain (Gm/Gds ratio), low noise, and flexibility in Vtuning. Figure 2 shows how 22FDX outperforms finFETs for fT/fMax.

“FDSOI is the only device architecture that meets all those requirements. Bulk planar CMOS suffers from large transistor mismatch due to random dopant fluctuation and low device gain due to poor electrostatics. FinFET technology improves on electrostatics but it lacks the back bias capability.”

The undoped channel takes away the random doping effect of a partially depleted (doped) channel, reducing variation by 50-60 percent.

Analog designers using FD-SOI, she said, have “the ability to tune the Vt by back-bias to compensate for process mismatch or drift, and to offer virtually any Vdesired. Near-zero Vt can also be achieved in FD-SOI, which enables low voltage analog design for low power consumption applications.”

“If you believe the future is about mobility, about more communications and low power consumption and cost sensitive IoT chips where analog and RF is about 50 percent of the chip, then FD-SOI has a good future.

“No single solution can fit all. The key is to build up the ecosystem, and with time, we are pushing that,” she said.

This article originally appeared on SemiMD.com and was featured in the December 2016 issue of Solid State Technology. 

By Ed Korczynski, Sr. Technical Editor

Researchers from IBM and Globalfoundries will report on the first use of “air-gaps” as part of the dielectric insulation around active gates of “10nm-node” finFETs at the upcoming International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM) of the IEEE (ieee-iedm.org). Happening in San Francisco in early December, IEDM 2016 will again provide a forum for the world’s leading R&D teams to show off their latest-greatest devices, including 7nm-node finFETs by IBM/Globalfoundries/Samsung and by TSMC. Air-gaps reduce the dielectric capacitance that slows down ICs, so their integration into transistor structures leads to faster logic chips.

History of Airgaps – ILD and IPD

As this editor recently covered at SemiMD, in 1998, Ben Shieh—then a researcher at Stanford University and now a foundry interface for Apple Corp.—first published (Shieh, Saraswat & McVittie. IEEE Electron Dev. Lett., January 1998) on the use of controlled pitch design combined with CVD dielectrics to form “pinched-off keyholes” in cross-sections of inter-layer dielectrics (ILD).

In 2007, IBM researchers showed a way to use sacrificial dielectric layers as part of a subtractive process that allows air-gaps to be integrated into any existing dielectric structure. In an interview with this editor at that time, IBM Fellow Dan Edelstein explained, “we use lithography to etch a narrow channel down so it will cap off, then deliberated damage the dielectric and etch so it looks like a balloon. We get a big gap with a drop in capacitance and then a small slot that gets pinched off.

Intel presented on their integration of air-gaps into on-chip interconnects at IITC in 2010 but delayed use until the company’s 14nm-node reached production in 2014. 2D-NAND fabs have been using air-gaps as part of the inter-poly dielectric (IPD) for many years, so there is precedent for integration near the gate-stack.

Airgaps for finFETs

Now researchers from IBM and Globalfoundries will report in (IEDM Paper #17.1, “Air Spacer for 10nm FinFET CMOS and Beyond,” K. Cheng et al) on the first air-gaps used at the transistor level in logic. Figure 1 shows that for these “10nm-node” finFETs the dielectric spacing—including the air-gap and both sides of the dielectric liner—is about 10 nm. The liner needs to be ~2nm thin so that ~1nm of ultra-low-k sacrificial dielectric remains on either side of the ~5nm air-gap.

These air-gaps reduced capacitance at the transistor level by as much as 25%, and in a ring oscillator test circuit by as much as 15%. The researchers say a partial integration scheme—where the air-gaps are formed only above the tops of fin— minimizes damage to the FinFET, as does the high-selectivity etching process used to fabricate them.

Figure 2 shows a cross-section transmission electron micrograph (TEM) of what can go wrong with etch-back air-gaps when all of the processes are not properly controlled. Because there are inherent process:design interactions needed to form repeatable air-gaps of desired shapes, this integration scheme should be extendable “beyond” the “10-nm node” to finFETs formed at tighter pitches. However, it seems likely that “5nm-node” logic FETs will use arrays of horizontal silicon nano-wires (NW), for which more complex air-gap integration schemes would seem to be needed.

—E.K.

Toshiba Corporation’s (TOKYO: 6502) Storage & Electronic Devices Solutions Company today announced the launch of JEDEC e∙MMCTM Version 5.1[1] compliant embedded NAND flash memory products supporting AEC-Q100 Grade2 [2] requirements. The line-up offers densities of 8GB, 16GB, 32GB and 64GB. Sample shipments start from today with mass production scheduled for the second quarter (April to June) of 2017.

The new products integrate NAND chips fabricated with 15nm process technology with a controller to manage basic control functions for NAND applications in a single package. As a complement to Toshiba’s previous product group of e∙MMC, which deliver the operating temperature range of -40 to +85°C required by car infotainment applications, the new products support applications such as instrument clusters that require e∙MMC storage solutions to operate at higher temperatures up to +105°C.

In the automotive market, demand for NAND flash memory is continuing to grow alongside advances in car infotainment, ADAS [3] and autonomous driving systems. Toshiba is meeting this demand by reinforcing its line-up of high performance and high density memory products and will continue to take leadership in the market.

Toshiba is also developing automotive UFS [4] products that support AEC-Q100.

Weisl-AndreasAndreas Weisl (38), former Vice President Europe of Korean LED manufacturer Seoul Semiconductor (SSC), has taken on the position of CEO at Seoul Semiconductor Europe GmbH based Munich, Germany, with effect from November 11, 2016.

The European headquarters has been consistently successful, establishing themselves since 2010. The global success story of SSC, which is marked by rapid growth, has been successfully implemented in Europe for many years now. SSC is among the leading companies in global markets and throughout the European LED market.

In his role as General Manager for Central and Northern Europe since 2010, and as Vice President Europe since 2014, Mr. Weisl is part of the SSC executive and is responsible for business developments in Europe. Mr Weisl has contributed significantly to the company’s success and looks back on more than eleven years of experience in the area of LEDs before coming to SSC in 2010. Previously he served as a manager, among other roles, at Osram Opto Semiconductors.

IC Insights will release its 20th anniversary edition of The McClean Report in January of next year.  The following represents a portion of the memory forecast that will appear in the new report.

After increasing by more than 20% in both 2013 and 2014, the memory market fell upon difficult times in 2015. Conditions that would normally be seen as favorable for boosting demand and increasing prices for memory devices such as supplier consolidation, limited capacity expansion, and a growing list of emerging applications did not prop up the market at all in 2015.   Instead, slow system demand in personal computers led to excess inventory and steep price cuts in the second half of 2015. This resulted in a 3% decline to $78.0 billion for the 2015 memory market. These same weak market conditions carried into the first half of 2016, but then memory prices began to firm in the second half of the year and the market finished the year on a strong note, though still down 1% year over year.

Looking to 2017, IC Insights’ forecast the total memory IC market will increase 10% to a new record high of $85.3 billion as gains in average selling prices for DRAM and NAND flash help boost total memory sales. Increases in the memory market are forecast to continue each year through the forecast, with sales topping $100.0 billion for the first time in 2020 and then reaching nearly $110.0 billion in 2021 (Figure 1).

From 2016-2021, the average annual growth rate for the memory market is forecast to be 7.3%; about 2.4 points more than the total IC market CAGR during this same time.  Memory units are expected to grow by a CAGR of 5.6%. Playing a bigger role in memory market growth through 2021 will be strengthening average selling prices (ASPs).  Memory market ASPs fell 3% in 2015 and declined another 10% in 2016 but are expected to increase in all but one year (2020) through the forecast at an average annual rate of 1.8%.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The DRAM market, which was the catalyst for strong total memory market growth in 2013 and 2014, tumbled 3% in 2015 and another 10% in 2016, dragging the total memory market down with it in both years (Figure 1).  For 2017, IC Insights forecasts a strong increase in DRAM average selling prices, which is expected to lift the DRAM market to 11% growth.   The NAND flash memory market—the only memory segment to show an increase in 2016—is expected to grow 10% in 2017.  Together, DRAM and NAND flash are forecast to help propel the total memory IC market up 10% in 2017.

By Christian G. Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics Group at SEMI 

Data from SEMI’s recently updated World Fab Forecast report reveal that 62 new Front End facilities will begin operation between 2017 and 2020.  This includes facilities and lines ranging from R&D to high volume fabs, which begin operation before high volume ramp commences.  Most of these newly operating facilities will be volume fabs; only 7 are R&Ds or Pilot facilities.

Between 2017 and 2020, China will see 26 facilities and lines beginning operation, about 42 percent of the worldwide total currently tracked by SEMI.  The majority of the facilities starting operation in 2018 are Chinese-owned companies. The peak for China in 2018 comes mainly from foundry facilities (54 percent). The Americas region follows with 10 facilities, and Taiwan with 9 facilities. See Figure 1.

Figure 1 depicts the regions in which new facilities will begin operation.

Figure 1 depicts the regions in which new facilities will begin operation.

By product type, the forecast for new facilities and lines include: 20 (32 percent) are forecast to be foundries, followed by 13 Memory (21 percent), seven LED (11 percent), six Power (10 percent) and five MEMS (8 percent). See Figure 2

Figure 2: New facilities & lines starting operation by product type from 2017 to 2020

Figure 2: New facilities & lines starting operation by product type from 2017 to 2020

Because the forecast extends several years, it includes facilities and lines of all probabilities, including rumored projects and projects which have been announced, but have a low probability of actually happening.  See Table 1.

FabForecast-table1

 

Probabilities of less than 50 percent are considered unconfirmed, while a probability of 80 to 85 percent means that the facility is currently in construction mode.  Projects with 90 percent probability are currently equipping. As the forecast gets farther out, more of the projects have lower probabilities.

The projects under construction, or soon to be under construction, will be key drivers in equipment spending for this industry over the next several years — with China expected to be the key spending market.

SEMI’s World Fab Forecast provides detailed information about each of these fab projects, such as milestone dates, spending, technology node, products, and capacity information. Since the last publication in August 2016, the research team has made 249 changes on 222 facilities/lines.

The World Fab Forecast Report, in Excel format, tracks spending and capacities for over 1,100 facilities including future facilities across industry segments from Analog, Power, Logic, MPU, Memory, and Foundry to MEMS and LEDs facilities.  Using a bottoms-up approach methodology, the SEMI Fab Forecast provides high-level summaries and graphs, and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab.

The SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses.  The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment. Also check out the Opto/LED Fab Forecast.

Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats.

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.55 billion in orders worldwide in November 2016 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.96, according to the November Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI.  A book-to-bill of 0.96 means that $96 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

SEMI reports that the three-month average of worldwide bookings in November 2016 was $1.55 billion. The bookings figure is 4.0 percent higher than the final October 2016 level of $1.49 billion, and is 25.1 percent higher than the November 2015 order level of $1.24 billion.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in November 2016 was $1.61 billion. The billings figure is 1.1 percent lower than the final October 2016 level of $1.63 billion, and is 25.2 percent higher than the November 2015 billings level of $1.29 billion.

“As 2016 comes towards a close, equipment spending is stronger than expected at the start of the year,” said Dan Tracy, senior director, SEMI. “Spending has been driven by 3D NAND, leading-edge foundry, and advanced packaging investments, and these segments are key for the expected spending growth in 2017.”

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving averages of worldwide bookings and billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

 

Billings
(3-mo. avg)

Bookings
(3-mo. avg)

Book-to-Bill

June 2016

$1,715.2

$1,714.3

1.00

July 2016

$1,707.9

$1,795.4

1.05

August 2016

$1,709.0

$1,753.4

1.03

September 2016

$1,493.3

$1,567.2

1.05

October 2016 (final)

$1,630.4

$1,488.4

0.91

November 2016 (prelim)

$1,613.2

$1,547.2

0.96

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org), December 2016