Category Archives: Displays

During SEMICON China 2016 on March 15-17 in Shanghai, key government decision makers, IC fund managers, and global industry analysts will share their insights on China’s IC manufacturing policy. SEMI expects record numbers of global industry executives will attend the world’s largest electronics manufacturing exposition to learn about the opportunities, challenges, and risks in China’s quickly changing market.

In 2016, semiconductor equipment spending is expected to be $5.3 billion, 9 percent above 2015 spending. In 2016, total spending on semiconductor materials in China will be $6.2 billion, with China representing the highest growth rate of all the regions tracked by SEMI.  SEMI is tracking ten 300mm facilities in China that are currently in production, with eight of these facilities either upgrading or ramping. Another three are either in construction or changing product type.  In addition, SEMI is tracking another six 300mm projects in various stages of planning.

The global industry is watching and taking cues from the bold industry investment policy and its implementation with its massive potential impact on the global semiconductor manufacturing supply chain.  The policies represent major opportunities for China and global semiconductor companies who understand and have the ambition to play in the new ecosystem.

Dr. C.C. Wei, general manager and co-CEO of TSMC will present the grand opening keynote at SEMICON China. Keynote speakers from SMIC, National IC Investment Fund, BOE, Applied Materials, LAM Research, TEL and STATS ChipPAC will also present. The entire semiconductor industry ecosystem – including device manufacturing, equipment, materials, assembly and test services, design, and more – will participate.

2016 is the first year that SEMICON China will present forums on the entire ecosystem “Build China’s IC Manufacturing Ecosystem.” In addition, forums will include: Mobile and IOT Technology Forum (co-organized with JEDEC), China Memory Strategic Forum, Sensor Hub Solution for Wearable and IOT, LED China, and Power Semiconductors.

“Tech Investment Forum-China 2016” will be held on March 16. The Tech Investment Forum has already become an important platform between the investment and semiconductor industry in China. This year, Mr. Lu Jun, the president of SINO IC Capital will give a keynote speech. There will also be a session where startup companies can pitch to venture investors for project funding.

China Semiconductor Technology International Conference (CSTIC) precede at SEMICON China. Organized by SEMI and IEEE-EDS, CSTIC 2016 covers all aspects of semiconductor technology and manufacturing (more than than 400  papers), including devices, design, lithography, integration, materials, processes, and manufacturing, as well as emerging semiconductor technologies and silicon material applications.

FPD China and the LED China Conference are co-located with SEMICON China, leveraging synergies in these emerging and adjacent markets. Featuring more than 900 exhibitors occupying more than 2,600 booths, SEMICON China is the largest exposition of its kind in China with over 50,000 people expected to attend.

SEMICON China 2016 is approved by the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, co-organized by SEMI and the China Electronic Chamber of Commerce (CECC). Sponsors include: JCET, SMIC, TEL, Applied Materials, LAM Research, ASE, GCL, and ANJI.

For more information on SEMICON China 2016, visit www.semiconchina.org/

SEMICON Korea 2016 at COEX in Seoul opens tomorrow with more than 540 exhibiting companies and an expected 40,000 attendees. Today’s SEMICON Korea press conference expressed a positive lookout, for both 2016 and for longer-term growth drivers, like the Internet of Things (IoT).

Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI, reported at the Press Conference that even with slightly decreased annual spending, Korea is expected to remain the second largest equipment market for the second year in a row. In 2014, the materials market in Korea surpassed Japan to become the second largest materials market after Taiwan. This year, we expect Korea to represent about a $7.3 billion market, representing 16 percent of the world materials market.

Much of the semiconductor manufacturing capacity in Korea is targeted towards both advanced NAND Flash and DRAM. Korea represents the largest region of installed 300mm fab capacity in the world. Korean semiconductor manufacturers represent about 60 percent of the worldwide Memory output, and is the market leader for installed Memory fab capacity.  According to the SEMI World Fab Forecast, memory was a significant driver for semiconductor equipment spending in 2015 and is expected to remain the largest spending segment 2016, driven mainly by investments for 3D NAND. The primary driver for the Memory market continues to be mobility, keeping the pressure on scaling and added functionality.

Korea fab equipment spending (front-end) in 2016 is forecast to be US$ 8.1 billion. The combined equipment and materials spending outlook for Korea in 2016 will likely top $15.3 billion. The semiconductor, semiconductor equipment, and materials supply chain in Korea is increasingly deep and broad and filling out as a complete ecosystem.

In addition, the LED market will experience strong double-digit growth in lighting applications over the next several years. Overall LED fab capacity continues to expand, and many manufacturers are transitioning to manufacturing with 4-inch diameter sapphire wafers. Korean manufacturers are prominently positioned in the global LED rankings.

Tomorrow’s keynotes at SEMICON Korea will be presented by AUDI, Synopsys, and Texas Instruments. Highlights include: Semiconductor Technology Symposium which addresses the global trends and new technologies of the semiconductor manufacturing process; Market Seminar; Supplier Search Program; OEM Supplier Search Meeting; Presidents Reception; and International Standards meetings.

SEMICON Korea 2016 is a semiconductor technology event for market trends and breaking technology developments, featuring deep technical forums, business programs and standards activities.

Sponsors of SEMICON Korea 2016 include: Special sponsors Samsung, SK Hynix, and Dongbu HiTek; Platinum sponsors Lam Research, Applied Materials, Wonik, Exicon, ASE Group, Advantest, EO Technics, and TEL; and Gold sponsors Hitachi High-Tech and PSK.

The event is co-located with LED Korea 2016.  For more information on the events, visit SEMICON Korea: www.semiconkorea.org/en/  and LED Korea: www.led-korea.org/en/.

The Critical Materials Council (CMC) and TECHCET have issued a call for papers to be presented at the “Critical Materials for Device Driven Scaling” Seminar to be held May 5-6, 2016 in Hillsboro, Oregon, USA. Semiconductor manufacturing industry experts from IDMs, OEMS, and materials suppliers will gather to discuss actionable information on critical materials used in HVM fabs, while also looking at issues associated with new materials needed for future devices. Tim G. Hendry, Vice President, Technology & Manufacturing and Group Director of Fab Materials, Intel Corp., will provide the keynote address.

Following the annual members-only CMC meeting to be held May 3-4, the 2016 CMC Seminar is open to the public. Business drives our world, but technology enables the profitable business of manufacturing new devices in IC fabs, and new devices need new materials. In addition to panel discussions, presentation sessions will focus on the following topics:

  1. Semiconductor Market Briefing: application-specific demands for devices and materials
    II. Tracking the Supply Chain down to Earth, Wind, and Fire: manufacturing and supply chain
    III. Emerging Materials Evolutions: alternate logic channels and new memory switches, and
    IV. Materials Revolutions: beyond silicon CMOS.

Attendees will include industry experts handling supply-chains, business-development, R&D, and product management, as well as academics and analysts. The early-bird registration fee (before March 15th) for the CMC Seminar is $349; the standard registration fee is $425 (after March 15th). CMC member companies will be attending this meeting, as it is an important part of their membership. Additional information can be found online at http://cmcfabs.org/seminars.

To submit a paper for consideration, please send a 1-page abstract focusing on critical materials supply dynamics by February 29, 2016 to [email protected].

The Critical Materials Council for Semiconductor Device Fabricators was originally started by SEMATECH in the early 1990’s, and is now managed by TECHCET. It actively works to identify issues surrounding the supply, availability, accessibility, or lack thereof, of semiconductor process materials, current and emerging, also known as “Critical Materials”. This is done by collectively working to solve common materials related issues in a non-competitive environment. The CMC supports the continuous improvement of the Materials Supply Chain Community for Semiconductor Fabricators. For more information see www.CMCFabs.org .

With demand for notebook PCs stagnating due to the economic downturn and the rise of tablet PCs, notebook brands and panel makers are increasingly turning to higher display resolutions to increase consumer enthusiasm. Worldwide notebook panel demand fell 12 percent year over year in 2015 to reach 176 million units, according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), a global source of critical information and insight. With notebook inventory piling up, brands and panel makers are hoping that upgrading the display resolution of their product lines will spur more demand growth. Full high-definition (FHD) panels will comprise 20 percent of the notebook market in the first quarter (Q1) of 2016, growing to 30 percent in Q3 2016.

“Panel makers for notebook PC brands remain conservative in their 2016 outlook, and they are looking for economical ways to increase sales and reduce backlogged inventory,” said Linda Lin, senior analyst of display research for IHS Technology. “After panel prices crashed to the break-even point in the fourth quarter of 2015, lowering prices to increase panel demand is no longer an option, so upgrading features is the only option left.”

According to the IHS Large Area Display Market Tracker, resolution upgrades are simple for consumers to recognize. Also, lower panel prices now mean the upgrades can be made more easily and affordably, for notebook PCs. In fact, the panel cost gap between high-definition (HD) displays and FHD displays narrowed to just $10 dollars in 2015. “Increasing resolutions above the FHD level is the next trend to watch for in notebook display products,” Lin said.

Samsung Display and LG Display are both leaders in promoting FHD resolution notebook displays with in-plane switch (IPS), wide-view angle and low-color shift technology. “These two leading South Korean panel makers are promoting their FHD IPS displays, targeting the high-end notebook PC segment, so that they can more efficiently manage the panel price gap between FHD IPS and general specification panels,” Lin said.

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 75.7 million units in the fourth quarter of 2015, a 8.3 percent decline from the fourth quarter of 2014, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. For the year, 2015 PC shipments totaled 288.7 million units, an 8 percent decline from 2014.

“The fourth quarter of 2015 marked the fifth consecutive quarter of worldwide PC shipment decline,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. “Holiday sales did not boost the overall PC shipments, hinting at changes to consumers’ PC purchase behavior. On the business side, Windows 10 generally received positive reviews, but as expected, Windows 10 migration was minor in the fourth quarter as many organizations were just starting their testing period.”

“All regions registered a decrease in shipments. Currency devaluation issues continued to impact EMEA, Latin America and Japan,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “Collectively EMEA, Japan and Latin America saw their markets reduced by nearly 10 percent in 2015.”

Gartner’s outlook for PC shipments in 2016 is for a decline of 1 percent compared with 2015, with the potential for a soft recovery in late 2016. Ms. Kitagawa said the PC market is still in the middle of structural change which will reduce the PC installed base in the next few years.

In the fourth quarter of 2015, Lenovo registered a worldwide PC shipment decline for the third consecutive quarter. However, Lenovo declined less than the industry average, and it extended its lead in the market. Lenovo accounted for 20.3 percent of worldwide PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2015 (see Table 1). Lenovo did particularly well in North America to offset shipment declines in EMEA, Latin America and Japan.

Table 1
Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 4Q15 (Thousands of Units)

Company

4Q15 Shipments

4Q15 Market Share (%)

4Q14 Shipments

4Q14 Market Share (%)

4Q15-4Q14 Growth (%)

Lenovo

15,384

20.3

16,061

19.4

-4.2
HP

14,206

18.8

15,452

18.7

-8.1
Dell

10,236

13.5

10,783

13.1

-5.1
Asus

6,002

7.9

6,201

7.5

-3.2
Apple

5,675

7.5

5,519

6.7

2.8
Acer Group

5,277

7.0

5,939

7.2

-11.2
Others

18,940

25.0

22,635

27.4

-16.3
Total

75,720

100.0

82,590

100.0

-8.3

Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs, and ultramobile premium. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels.
Source: Gartner (January 2016)

HP’s fourth quarter PC shipments declined in the worldwide market and across all regions. The decline in the regions were mostly the same or better than the regional average except for the U.S. market. The steep decline in the U.S. market was in part because of unusually high shipment volume in the fourth quarter of 2014, led by low-priced Bing notebooks targeting holiday sales.

Dell’s PC shipments declined across all regions except Japan where the company grew by single digits compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. Although Dell’s shipments declined in EMEA and the U.S., Dell declined less than the regional averages.

In the U.S., PC shipments totaled 16.9 million units in the fourth quarter of 2015, a 3.1 percent decline from the fourth quarter of 2014 (see Table 2). Despite an 8.4 percent decline in shipments, HP maintained the No. 1 position in the U.S., accounting for 27.1 percent of PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2015. Dell continued to be the number 2 vendor in the U.S., as its shipments declined less than the industry average.

“Holiday sales had a limited impact on PC sales in the U.S. market,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “Notebooks were off the top wish list of holiday gifts. Unlike 2014 holiday sales, there were not many holiday mega deals for laptops, especially in value segments. At the same time, consumers’ interest shifted to other consumer electronics devices such as TV’s and wearables. “

Table 2
Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 4Q15 (Thousands of Units)

Company

4Q15 Shipments

4Q15 Market Share (%)

4Q14 Shipments

4Q14 Market Share (%)

4Q15-4Q14 Growth (%)

HP

4,577

27.1

4,994

28.7

-8.4
Dell

4,132

24.5

4,193

24.1

-1.5
Apple

2,160

12.8

2,027

11.6

6.5
Lenovo

2,134

12.6

1,763

10.1

21.1
Asus

1,202

7.1

1,200

6.9

0.1
Others

2,691

15.9

3,252

18.7

-17.3
Total

16,895

100.0

17,430

100.0

-3.1

Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs, and ultramobile premium. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels.
Source: Gartner (January 2016)

PC shipments in EMEA totaled 22.5 million units in the fourth quarter of 2015, a decline of 16 percent year-over-year. In Western Europe, some countries, such as the UK, showed solid Windows 10 promotions during the holiday season, and shipments in the French market remained good. Overall high inventory levels plagued Western Europe. In Eastern Europe, the PC market experienced modest growth in low-single digits, driven by consumer demand for new hybrid devices and PC replacements to move to Windows 10.

The Asia/Pacific PC market reached 26 million units in the fourth quarter of 2015, a 1.5 percent decline from the fourth quarter of 2014. Buyers did not rush to replace with newer PC models with Windows 10. PC vendors looked for profitability over shipment volume, focusing on segments such as gaming PCs; bundling of desktops with large monitor screens and ultramobile device models. Preliminary results indicate that the China PC market declined 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared with a year ago.

For the year, worldwide PC shipments declined for the fourth consecutive year, which started in 2012 with the launch of tablets. “In 2015, local currency devaluation also played a key role in the market conditions,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “EMEA, Latin America and Japan faced a major impact from the devaluation, showing double-digit declines in 2015. In contrast, the U.S. and Asia/Pacific experienced minor declines of almost flat to low single-digit declines as the currency issue did not affect these regions.”

The top six vendor accounted for more of the overall PC market in 2015. These vendors accounted for 73.1 percent of shipments in 2015, up from 70.4 percent of shipments in 2014 (see Table 3). Lenovo maintained the number one position, accounting for 19.8 percent of PC shipments, followed by HP with 18.2 percent market share. Dell rounded out the top three vendors, accounting for 13.6 percent of shipments.

Table 3
Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2015 (Thousands of Units)

Company

2015 

Shipments

2015 Market 

Share (%)

2014 

Shipments

2014 Market Share (%)

2015-2014 Growth (%)

Lenovo

57,123

19.8

58,956

18.8

-3.1
HP

52,551

18.2

54,996

17.5

-4.4
Dell

39,159

13.6

40,499

12.9

-3.3
Asus

21,198

7.3

22,671

7.2

-6.5
Apple

20,741

7.2

19,598

6.2

5.8
Acer Group

20,340

7.0

24,015

7.7

-15.3
Others

77,624

26.9

92,945

29.6

19.7
Grand Total

288,735

100.0

313,681

100.0

-8.0

Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs, and ultramobile premium. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels.
Source: Gartner (January 2016)

These results are preliminary. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Gartner’s PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program.

The SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) opened yesterday with the theme “Integrating for Growth: Markets, Technology, Ecosystem.” The packed conference of C-level executives gave the year’s first strategic outlook of the global electronics manufacturing industry.

Opening keynoter Mary J. Miller, deputy assistant secretary of research and technology at the U.S. Army, discussed future national defense needs and technological innovation capabilities. The most serious changes the Army needs to deal with are: technology parity (“high tech loses its advantage if everyone has it”); interconnected, global environment; and an unpredictable enemy- from individual actors to nation-states.

In the Economic Trends session, presenters took on macroeconomic trends and detailed industry-specific forecasts:

  • Duncan Meldrum, Hilltop Economics, believes that the effects of the financial crisis linger with the global economy more than two percent below potential – a full seven years after the financial crisis. However, the U.S. is farthest along the adjustment path. Looking at semiconductor Millions of Square Inches (MSI) outlook, he finds that the forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are both up about 2.8 percent while 2017 is expected to bring recovery (6.4 percent).
  • Bill McClean, IC Insights, cited expectations for improvement in global GDP and less strength of the U.S. dollar, forecasting the worldwide semiconductor market to grow 4 percent to $367 billion in 2016. He estimates that semiconductor capital spending will increase 1 percent to $66 billion and semiconductor materials revenues will increase 4 percent to $48 billion in the same period. McClean also predicts that the domestic production share of the Chinese semiconductor market will increase from 12.7 percent in 2015 to 18.1 percent in 2020.
  • Bob Johnson, Gartner, forecasts that the short-term outlook is weak but improving towards the end of the year. He believes that high single-digit growth will return in 2017 when 10nm starts volume production and 3D NAND ramp begins, and that China investment will boost spending in 2017-2019.
    Dan Tracy, SEMI, stated packaging is a key enabler of functionality in the mobile space – due to thin, small form factor multi-die and SiP applications growing. He also stressed that Fan-out wafer-level packaging (FO-WLP) is disruptive and will have a significant impact on the consumption of semiconductor packaging materials in the coming years.
  • Ezra Greenberg, McKinsey & Company, believes that the world is roughly 10 years into a dramatic transition as a result of four disruptive trends: growth and urbanization in emerging markets, rapid technological changes, increasing connectivity, and the aging of populations. The disruptions are producing change so significant that “management intuition that has served us in the past will become obsolete.”

The afternoon session focused on Market Perspectives, including China’s growing role in the ecosystem. Handel Jones, International Business Strategies, believes the many acquisitions – like OmniVision, STATS ChipPAC, and NXP’s RF Power – were made to gain fast access to products and IP. Multiple funding sources have been set up for the establishment of semiconductor manufacturing in China with large government and commercial funding coming into focus. The China supply ecosystem will go through many changes and bring major opportunities for the global industry. Mark Lipacis, Jefferies, emphasized that in contrast to 10-15 years ago, recent semiconductor M&A has been received positively by shareholders. China’’s emergence as an important industry player as it targets to double its industry share by 2020.

Jiri Marek, Robert Bosch, talked about how smart sensors are the enabler for the Internet of Thing (IoT). Connected devices will grow from today’s 5 billion to 20–50 billion devices. He highlighted sensor data fusion which enables use-cases, like activity monitoring, augmented reality, and intent prediction (location-based services and well-being recommendations).

Manish Bhatia, SanDisk, spoke about the exponential growth of data and devices: 44 trillion gigabytes of digital data by 2020; 26 billion connected devices by 2020; 1.7 trillion digital images created in 2016; and 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube every minute. With product categories blurring in terms of computing power and storage, he stressed that semiconductor makers need to focus on broader product portfolios and on solutions, not components.

Days 2 and 3 at ISS will delve deeper into the industry – technology, manufacturing, and collaboration with presentations from: Amkor Technology, ASM International, ASML, GlobalFoundries, IM Flash Technologies, Intel, Intel Capital, Micron, Qualcomm, SMIC, and SUNY Poly/CNSE. Additional keynote speakers include Ken Hansen, president and CEO of Semiconductor Research Corporation, and Haruyoshi Kumura, fellow at Nissan. In the final session of the last day, a panel on “It’s 2050… Moore’s Law is Dead… What’s the New Business Model” features Brewer Science, Cisco Systems, GlobalFoundries, Intel, Synopsys, and VLSI Research.

The SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) examines global economic, technology, market, business and geo-political developments influencing the semiconductor processing industry along with their implications for your strategic business decisions. For more than 35 years, ISS has been the premier semiconductor conference for senior executives to acquire the latest trend data, technology highlights and industry perspective to support business decisions, customer strategies and the pursuit of greater profitability.

Viewpoints: 2016 outlook


January 11, 2016

Each year, Solid State Technology turns to industry leaders to hear viewpoints on the technological and economic outlook for the upcoming year. Read through these expert opinions on what to expect in 2016.

New technologies will fuel pockets of growth in 2016

Plisinski_headshotBy Mike Plisinski, Chief Executive Officer, Rudolph Technologies, Inc.

While the 2016 outlook for the semiconductor industry as a whole appears increasingly uncertain, there are areas where significant growth remains likely. In particular, advanced packaging, driven by growing consumer demand in applications ranging from smartphones and tablets to the Internet of Things (IoT), shows great promise for continued innovation.

First, we see outsourced assembly and test (OSAT) manufacturers driving the development of new packaging technology. For example, we’ve seen major gains in the adoption of fan-out packaging and copper pillar technology, evidenced by ongoing capacity expansion, and the addition of new players—the most obvious perhaps being the large ongoing investment by a leading foundry in Asia where our inspection equipment has received a prominent role. We see more and more manufacturers choosing to add yield management and/or advanced process control (APC) software, to obtain a competitive advantage in not only cost, but also reliability. This is achieved by transforming ultra-large data sets into useful information used for predictive analytics (reducing costs) and analysis across the supply chain (improving reliability).

The growth in advanced packaging is also driving the adoption of sophisticated lithography techniques for these new technologies. Our JetStep advanced packaging stepper is now in high-volume manufacturing use at several top OSATs. The system allows our customers the flexibility to handle all of the current advanced processes within a single tool, which provides a compelling cost of ownership value. We also see emerging processes, such the adoption of rectangular panel substrates, in some packaging applications, certainly in fan-out, but also embedded and other packaging technologies. Rectangular panels promise significant gains in economy-of-scale and processing efficiency.

Lastly, expansion in radio frequency (RF) device capability continues to grow, with the increasing number of devices that communicate wirelessly and the increasing number of frequencies with which they communicate. Measuring the electrode and piezo layers of SAW/BAW filters will only grow as more and more filters are required in mobile devices. Beyond mobile, the expansion in RF is also driven by WiFi, Bluetooth and IoT requirements for connectivity, so we expect it to accelerate even as the smartphone growth curve flattens.

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

By Heidi Hoffman, FlexTech Alliance, a SEMI Strategic Alliance Partner

Flexible and printed electronics applications are becoming real. Forecasters are predicting a nearly $30 billion market for internet-connected devices in a combined industry and consumer sector.  Of those, healthcare is the strongest flexible, hybrid electronics (FHE) segment, where performance is of the highest value and reliability is life-and-death critical.  The savings to be realized from these devices and more successful self-treatment will potentially in part make up for the shortages in doctors, nurses and care-givers as people live much longer lives and encounter more health problems than before.

Demand is high for increasing the manufacturability of all of these products — lowering the per unit price and increasing value to the customer– and is the reason the U.S. Government is putting its muscle (and funds) into advanced manufacturing of FHE with NextFlex – America’s Flexible Hybrid Electronics Manufacturing Institute.

NextFlex was announced last August, and has since released its first project call asking for proposals on advanced manufacturing methodologies for health monitoring and structural health monitoring.  The products will incorporate a hybrid approach where commercial-off-the-shelf signal processing electronics are integrated onto the flexible substrate that allows for the fabrication of fully functional, mechanically flexible, sensor systems. The intelligence on small, flexible silicon can be incorporated onto flexible substrates for more conformable electronics and eliminate big, bulky, boxy electronics that are far from comfortably worn.

Over 70 organizations submitted pre-proposals to NextFlex with a wide range of projects designed to advance FHE manufacturing know-how.  Much of the work in sight will be presented at the NextFlex/FlexTech/SEMI event ─ 2016FLEX ─ designed to survey recent developments in printed electronics and hear how FHE is developing cost effective solutions for manufacturing advanced products and systems. Specific development programs will be discussed on how and when FHE can and should be used in a variety of commercial and military applications.  The 2016 FLEX technical conference will also feature presentations on the current state of FHE from a manufacturing perspective, including methods for integrating electronics with sensors onto flexible substrates.

Read more about 2016FLEX at www.2016FLEX.com.  The event brings together 600+ of the industry’s technology leaders to present and explore the latest products, processes, materials and equipment in the flexible and printed electronics ecosystem.

By Denny McGuirk, SEMI president and CEO

“In like a lion, out like a lamb” is just half the story for 2015.  While initial expectations forecasted a double-digit growth year, the world economy faded and dragged our industry down to nearly flat 2015/2014 results.

However, 2015 will be remembered for a wild ride that fundamentally changed the industry.  In 2015 a wave of M&A activity swept across the industry supply chain — unlike any single year before — with scores of transactions and notable multi-billion dollar companies being absorbed.  In 2016, we all will be working within a newly reconfigured supply chain.

Increasingly, in this business landscape, collaboration is required simultaneously across the extended supply chain — customers’ customers’ customers are now routinely part of the discussion in even unit process development.  Facilitating interaction and collaboration across the extended supply chain is part of what SEMI does and I’ll be updating you in next week’s letter on how, but first, let’s review what’s happened and what’s happening.

2015 Down 1%: “In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb”

2015 had an optimistic start with a strong outlook and good pace in Q1 and 1H.  In January 2015 forecasters projected semiconductor equipment and materials growing in a range of 7 percent to nearly 14 percent vs. 2014.  Global GDP, as late as May 2015, was pegged at 3.5 percent for 2015 after coming in at only 3.4 percent in 2014.  In August, estimates dropped to 3.3 percent, in November estimates dropped further to 3.1 percent for the year.

As our industry has matured, semiconductor equipment and materials growth rates are ever more tightly correlated to shifts in global GDP.  With global GDP unexpectedly dropping, the second half saw declining book-to-bill activity and the year will likely end flat or slightly negative for 2015.  Though nearly flat, the numbers are still impressive with a healthy $37.3 billion annual revenue for semiconductor manufacturing equipment and $43.6 billion for semiconductor materials.

An important change is since the 2009 financial crisis, electronics, chips, and semiconductor equipment and materials markets have been much more stable year-to-year than in the years prior to 2009.  Also, the movement of the three segments is much more synchronized compared to the earlier years of boom and bust. For SEMI’s members this means cycles are becoming more muted — enabling members to shift business models accordingly to better maintain prosperity.

Fab-Equipmt-600w Capital-Equip-600w

 

2015’s $125+ Billion M&A:  Inflection Point for Silicon Valley Icons and Global Titans

2015 is a year that will be viewed as an inflection point in our industry.  The unprecedented M&A volume (more than $125 billion for semiconductor related companies) and the size of individual deals through the electronics supply chain will forever  change the industry.

historic-proportions

While there have been waves of consolidation for semiconductor Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) in the 1980s and 1990s, and semiconductor equipment and materials in the 1990s and 2000s, the fabless semiconductor companies are the latest wave undergoing consolidation.  Although, in 2015, not just fabless, but all segments saw major deals — even iconic chemical brands DuPont and Dow Chemical announced their intention to merge.

Large and familiar brands like Broadcom (Avago), SanDisk (Western Digital), Altera (Intel), Freescale (NXP), and KLA-Tencor (Lam Research) have been merged and will continue forward as part of their acquirers.  China is on the move with its ambitions to quickly grow its indigenous semiconductor supply chain with recent acquisitions of ISSI, OmniVision, NXP RF power unit, and notably Mattson in the semiconductor equipment segment.

In an age when new fab costs are pushing double-digit billions of dollars and leading-edge device tapeouts are surpassing $300 million per part, consolidation is a strategy to increase scale, leverage R&D, and compete better.  For SEMI’s members, the winner-take-all stakes increase and raise expectations for technology, product performance, application development, speed, and support.  This, in turn, means that SEMI members have an increased need for a newly drawn pre-competitive collaboration model along the extended electronics supply chain and for Special Interest Groups (SIGs) to drive collective action in focused sub-segments and for specific issues.

Collaboration-is-critical-6

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org), 2015

2016 Up ~1%: Stay Close to your Customer and your Customer’s Customer and …

Current projections for semiconductor equipment and materials suggest that 2016 will not be a high growth year.  The span of forecasts ranges from almost -10 percent to +5 percent.  At SEMI’s Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS), 10-13 January, we will be taking a deep-dive into the 2016 forecast and on the business drivers and will have a much better picture of the consensus outlook.

However, it is already quite clear that following this enormous wave of consolidation, the industry will look different and will offer new and different opportunities.  Listening to SEMI’s members, I’ve heard that during this period of upheaval it’s absolutely critical to stay close to one’s customers – but more than that – to have access and ongoing direct dialogue with the customer’s customer … and customers’ customers’ customers.

In light of the cost of research and development, the magnitude of risks, and the speed of new consumer electronics adoption, SEMI members find that they need to intimately know emerging requirements two to three steps away in the supply chain, and may require rapid and innovative development from their own sub-suppliers to meet product delivery in time.  In parallel, we see system integrators (electronics providers) staffing up with semiconductor processing engineers and equipment expertise, both for differentiation of their own products and for potential strategic vertical manufacturing.

2016 will mark an acceleration of collaboration and interdependence across the extended supply chain.  Next week, I’ll provide an update letter on SEMI’s related activities with an overview of what SEMI is doing to meet the realities of a reshaped industry.  SEMI’s role is evolving, and more important now than ever, in helping the industry achieve together, what it cannot accomplish alone.

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Whether showing off family photos on smartphones or watching TV shows on laptops, many people look at liquid crystal displays (LCDs) every day. LCDs are continually being improved, but almost all currently use color technology that fades over time. Now, a team reports in ACS Nano that using aluminum nanostructures could provide a vivid, low-cost alternative for producing digital color.

Conventional color technology used in displays is susceptible to photobleaching, or fading. So researchers have looked toward aluminum nanoparticles that can display colors in electronics, thanks to a property called ‘plasmon resonance.’ To create plasmonic color devices, researchers group nanostructures into arrays called pixels. Color is generated by scattering light onto the pixels, with different arrangements creating different colors. Aluminum plasmonic pixels are advantageous for use in electronic displays because they are inexpensive and can be made in an ultrasmall size, which can increase image resolution. But these pixels create muted and dull colors. In a recent publication, Stephan Link and colleagues developed a method that allows the red end of the color spectrum to be more vibrant. Now, the same team reports another approach that makes the blue end of the spectrum much more brilliant, too.

The researchers used a three-step design approach to create aluminum nanostructure pixels that exploit ‘Fano interference’ — an interaction between the plasmon resonance and the pixel’s array structure — to produce vibrant blue-end colors. Combining their previous research with this new development, the team was able to create pixels with extremely vivid colors across the entire visible spectrum. The researchers then incorporated a set of red, green and blue pixels into a liquid crystal display that could be electrically turned on and off, demonstrating this work’s potential use in commercial flat-panel displays.