Category Archives: Lithography

Worldwide industrial semiconductor revenues grew by 11.8 percent year over year, reaching $49.1 billion in 2017, according to the latest analysis from IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO). Industrial electronics equipment demand was broad-based, with continued growth in commercial and military aircraft, LED lighting, digital signage, digital video surveillance, climate control, smart meters, traction, photovoltaic (PV) inverters, human machine interface and various medical electronics like cardiac equipment, hearing aids, endoscopy and imaging systems. The industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1 percent through 2022.

Optical semiconductors delivered excellent performance, due to the continued strength of the general LED lighting market. Power discretes demand has ramped up in industrial motor drives, EV chargers, PV inverters, traction and lighting equipment. General purpose analog has a strong five-year growth in various industrial markets, especially in factory automation, power and energy, and lighting. Microcontrollers (MCUs) are also projected to experience broad-based growth in the long term, thanks to advances in power efficiency and integration features.

“The resilient economy in the United States, and strong demand in China, carried the lion’s share of industrial equipment demand in 2017,” said Robbie Galoso, associate director and principal analyst, industrial semiconductors, for IHS Markit. “A European resurgence also provided a strong tailwind for semiconductor growth.”

Global industrial semiconductor market share rankings

Strategic acquisitions continued to play a major role in shaping the overall semiconductor market rankings in key industrial semiconductor segments. All the following top 10 industrial semiconductor suppliers achieved revenue growth in 2017:

  1. Texas Instruments (TI) maintained its position as the largest industrial semiconductor supplier in 2017.
  2. The acquisition of Linear Technology catapulted Analog Devices into second position.  The combined Analog Devices and Linear Technology company generated $2.8 billion in industrial revenue in 2017. This acquisition boosted ADI’s industrial market shares in diversified segments within factory automation, military aerospace, video surveillance, test and measurement, medical, and power and energy applications.
  3. Intel ranked third, as the company’s Internet of Things (IoT) division continued to generate double-digit revenue growth attributed to innovation and strength in its factory automation, video surveillance and medical segments. Growth was also aided by the proliferation of smart and connected devices and a tremendous uplift in data analytics.
  4. Ranking fourth, Infineon’s strong revenue growth continued to be led by industrial applications, especially in factory automation, traction and various power and energy segments like PV, electric vehicle chargers and power supplies, where its leading discrete and power management devices are used.
  5. In fifth position, STMicroelectronics solid industrial revenue stream stems from a variety of applications, including factory and building automation, where its MCU, analog and discrete components are used.
  6. Micron’s organic revenue from industrial businesses continued to flourish in 2017, pushing the company into sixth place, driven by dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) growth in industrial IoT (IIoT) markets, spanning factory automation, video surveillance and transportation.
  7. Toshiba ranked seventh, with industrial electronics revenue growing to $1.5 billion in 2017. Growth was driven by power transistor discretes, MCU, optical and logic integrated circuit (IC) solutions in manufacturing and process automation, power and energy, and building and home control.
  8. Microchip Technology ranked eighth, and its revenue growth was primarily supported by MCU solutions in manufacturing and process automation, power and energy, and building and home control.
  9. ON Semiconductor was ranked ninth in 2017, driven by manufacturing and process automation, including machine vision, power and energy, building automation and hearing aids and other medical devices.
  10. NXP ranked tenth in the industrial market, with its strong presence in manufacturing and process automation, building and home control, medical electronics and other industrial applications.

Although not part of the top 10 ranking, China’s massive investments in LED manufacturing were especially noteworthy. Chinese firm MLS rose from 18th to 13th place, after posting 50 percent revenue growth and reaching $1 billion in 2017. MLS beat out other leading general lighting LEDs suppliers Nichia, Osram and Cree.

SEMI, the global industry association representing the electronics manufacturing supply chain, today reported that worldwide semiconductor manufacturing equipment billings reached a historic quarterly high of US$17.0 billion for the first quarter of 2018, surging 59 percent in March to end the quarter with an all-time monthly high of $7.8 billion.

The US$17.0 billion in quarterly billings shatters the previous record set in the fourth quarter of 2017. First quarter 2018 billings are 12 percent higher than the previous quarter and 30 percent higher than the same quarter a year ago. The data are gathered jointly with the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) from over 95 global equipment companies that provide data on a monthly basis.

The quarterly billings data by region in billions of U.S. dollars, quarter-over-quarter growth and year-over-year rates by region are as follows:

1Q2018
4Q2017
1Q2017
1Q18/4Q17
(Qtr-over-Qtr)
1Q18/1Q17
(Year-over-Year)
Korea
6.26
4.64
3.53
35%
78%
China
2.64
1.77
2.01
49%
31%
Taiwan
2.27
2.89
3.48
-22%
-35%
Japan
2.13
1.96
1.25
9%
70%
Europe
1.28
1.04
0.92
23%
39%
Rest of World
1.27
1.22
0.63
4%
103%
North America
1.14
1.58
1.27
-28%
-10%
Total
16.99
15.10
13.08
12%
30%

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org) and SEAJ, June 2018

 

The Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) from SEMI provides comprehensive market data for the global semiconductor equipment market. A subscription includes three reports: the monthly SEMI Billings Report, which offers a perspective of the trends in the equipment market; the monthly Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS), a detailed report of semiconductor equipment billings for seven regions and 24 market segments; and the SEMI Semiconductor Equipment Forecast, which provides an outlook for the semiconductor equipment market. For more information or to subscribe, please contact SEMI customer service at 1.877.746.7788 (toll free in the U.S.) or 1.408.943.6901 (International Callers). More information is also available online: www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/EquipmentMarket.

BISTel, a provider of intelligent, real-time data management, advanced analytics and predictive solutions for smart manufacturing announced today an innovative new Chamber Matching (CM) application that enables semiconductor manufacturers to better guard against events that negatively impact yield.

For semiconductor wafer manufacturers, optimizing wafer chamber performance is critical to ensuring high quality, high yield wafers. For customers to achieve this goal and maximize the performance of their fleet, analyzing variations in chamber performance and quickly recognizing which parameters are changing over time is critical to assuring the maximum possible yield from each chamber. BISTel’s new Chamber Matching (CM) application enables customers to quickly determine the best performing chamber – often referred to as the reference chamber or golden chamber. Customers can then compare the reference chamber to all other chambers to help maximize performance.

“CM is the second of four exciting new intelligent manufacturing solutions we have introduced to the market, and that will have an immediate impact on our customers wafer quality and yield,” noted W.K. Choi, Founder and CEO, BISTel. “With these advance new tools, we can perform real time monitoring and analysis to quickly identify the golden chamber and provide our customers the opportunity to maximize the performance of their equipment and processes.”

Key Features and Benefits

BISTel’s new Chamber Matching (CM) solution quickly identifies mis-matching and drifting sensors and it can analyze an unlimited number of chambers simultaneously. In addition, CM:

  • Provides real time monitoring to improve quality and yield.
  • Executes statistical analysis to quickly identify the best performing chamber or “Golden Chamber.”
  • Performs full trace analysis on all sensors and ranks chambers and parameters worse to best.
  • Enables customers to easily conduct time-based, chamber performance analysis.
  • Is completely FDC system independent

BISTel is a provider of real-time, intelligent manufacturing solutions that collect and manage big data, monitor the health of equipment, optimize process flows, analyze large data and quickly identify root cause failures to mitigate risk. BISTel solutions help customers reduce costs, improve quality, and increase yield. Founded in 2000, BISTel has more than 340 employees worldwide. The company is headquartered in South Korea, with offices in California, China, Singapore and Texas. BISTel has a deep customer following in semiconductor, FPD, and PCB/SMT manufacturing as well as automotive, Biotech and steel manufacturing. Its new A.I. based manufacturing intelligence platform will include new auto learning, predictive, self-healing, and continuous improvement features that accelerate smart manufacturing. For more information visit bistel.com

By Deb Vogler

This year’s Advanced Lithography TechXPOT at SEMICON West will explore the progress on extreme ultra-violet lithography (EUVL) and its economic viability for high-volume manufacturing (HVM), as well as other lithography solutions that can address the march to 5nm and onward to 3nm. Several session speakers offered their insights into the readiness of EUVL for 5nm and how other lithography solutions will enable 3nm. See the full list of speakers and program agenda at http://www.semiconwest.org/programs-catalog/lithography-5nm-and-below.

Diverging viewpoints on EUVL readiness for 5nm

Mike Lercel, Director of Strategic Marketing at ASML

ASML expects its first customer to start volume manufacturing with EUV at the 7nm logic node and the mid-10nm DRAM node in the 2018/2019 timeframe. “EUV will replace the most difficult layers that require multiple patterning, and many layers will continue to be allocated to immersion tools for the foreseeable future,” said Lercel. “For the 5nm logic node, more layers are expected to migrate to EUV.”

Three ASML customers have early-access versions of the next-generation TWINSCAN NXT:2000i for the development of advanced logic and DRAM nodes. “This system delivers 2.0nm cross-matched on-product overlay, achieved through several hardware advancements,” noted Lercel. “It is also significant because this mix-and-match use with EUV features a significantly different hardware platform.” TWINSCAN NXT:2000i features a new alignment sensor and improved wafer table flatness, endurance, and clamping mechanism to enhance matching to EUV.

ASML has achieved good industrialization progress of its pellicle, with tests confirming that pellicles can withstand 245W source power and an offline power lifetime test indicating 400W capability. Compared to the 7nm logic node, the requirements for EUV masks will become tighter at 5nm, but Lercel noted that ASML sees good progress with the industry infrastructure to support 5nm in areas such as reducing mask blank defects. “We will continue to improve pellicle transmission for enhanced throughput, but there are no fundamental changes in pellicle requirements for 5-3nm logic nodes. We see no infrastructure showstoppers for the introduction of EUVL at the 5nm node.”

Stephen Renwick, Director of Imaging Physics at Nikon Research Corporation of America

Renwick said that the 7nm logic node is expected to be fabbed mostly using 193i lithography. “EUV will struggle to be ready for 5nm, limited by yield issues caused by stochastic effects in the resist,” said Renwick. “Ready or not, though, it will be used.” Renwick suggests that introducing multiple-patterning with EUV may be needed but would increase costs. “193i lithography will continue to be used with quadruple-patterning and in combination with other techniques – there is no single solution.”

Figure 1. Normalized cost/layer vs. lithography method. SOURCE: Nikon Research Corporation of America

When choosing between immersion lithography and EUV for different customer segments at 5nm, Renwick noted that the cost depends on the layer. “Some time ago, we calculated that the costs of either 193i triple-patterning or 193i SADP with two cuts were roughly equal to single-patterning with EUV,” explained Renwick (Figure 1). “That agreed with chipmakers’ public estimates and meant that the choice of lithography method depended more on the performance tradeoffs involved, such as 193i’s better line-edge roughness. At the 5nm node, we are probably faced with quad-patterning from 193i, double-patterning from existing EUV tools, or single-patterning from as-yet undelivered high-numerical aperture (NA) EUV tools.” Renwick believes that the competition between low-NA EUV double-patterning and 193i quad-patterning will be similar to the current situation (i.e., comparison of 193i triple-patterning or 193i SADP with two cuts vs. single-patterning with EUV), but for high-NA EUV tools he believes it’s too early to say.

Other challenges Renwick sees on the horizon for EUVL at 5nm are stochastic effects in EUV resists. “They cause yield problems on contact arrays and unacceptable line-edge roughness on line/space patterns,” said Renwick. “It’s unlikely that these effects will go away without increasing the litho dose, which will further challenge throughput performance.” He also questions whether EUV pellicles, though under development, will be “ready for prime time.”

Harry Levinson, Sr. Director of Strategic Lithography Technology and Sr. Fellow at GLOBALFOUNDRIES

Levinson said additional fundamental engineering work is needed to ready EUV lithography for 5nm. “Among the top problems are stochastics-induced resist defects, which increase significantly as dimensions shrink below those for 7nm,” explained Levinson (Figure 2). “Higher exposure doses will be required to address these issues related to stochastics at 5nm, which will require higher source output” (than 7nm).

Levinson said there will be greater motivation to use EUVL at the 5nm node vs. at 7nm to offset the large number of exposures associated with 193nm immersion multiple-patterning solutions. “The primary application of EUV lithography at 7nm will be for contact, via and cut layers,” Levinson noted. “It will be important to enable EUVL for metal masks at the 5nm node, which increases the need for an ample supply of very low defect EUV mask blanks.” Levinson added that the 7nm node is already stressing defect inspection capabilities, and no actinic defect inspection system is yet available for patterned masks. “This situation becomes more problematic with widespread application of EUVL to metal layers.”

Mask development for 5nm

Christopher C. Progler, CTO & Strategic Planning at Photronics

Progler said that the basic infrastructure for delivering EUV masks is available, especially for dark field layers and near in nodes. “The interconnected or more open frame patterns will need refinements to the processes and two to three nodes out will need certain new infrastructure,” said Progler. Overall, the main challenges for initial insertion are about creating a cost-effective and rapid-turn EUV mask process, he said. “The industry can certainly deliver EUV masks in some form. It is more a question of doing it efficiently and productively to match the stated value proposition of EUV over other lithographic methods. We don’t want a pick two of ‘cost, cycle time, capability’ sort of mask solution.”

More specifically, Progler explained that after the initial EUV mask development for 5nm focused on contacts and block layers, the major push for N5 switched to delivering single-exposure EUV metal patterning as early as possible. “This has opened some new challenges for masks given the resolution, critical pattern density and tight pitch defect requirements of the re-aggregated single-layer metal mask designs,” said Progler. “For example, on the resolution side, we are accelerating the insertion of higher dose photoresists and also driving patterning module improvements in CD control, mask LER and sidewall angle.” Progler added that at N5, the mask 3D structure itself – including the sidewall – will have a greater impact on lithography because it is tied to stochastic error rates on the wafer.

“Reliable, wide-area metrology for some of these 2D and 3D mask parameters is currently hard to come by. We may see an evolution of the blank structure at some point in N5, including hard mask options for pattern stability and expect earlier insertion of EUV mask process correction with model-based hot spot detection and rule checking as well. We also hope mask-scanner dedication is not needed, but there are some indications process sensitivity may push us earlier in this direction.” He added that to reduce metal layer defects, more attention needs to be devoted to advanced repair and model-based validation. “We are, unfortunately, still in a situation of blurry vision and high native defect counts alongside possible in situ contamination during mask changes.”

Figure 2. Resist stochastics-induced defects. Graph courtesy of Peter DeBisschop, imec; Source: GLOBALFOUNDRIES

Progler pointed out that, with the advent at 5nm, metal masks will require some level of actinic blank inspection for yield, increasing the cost of an already expensive mask technology. “So, unless we want to contend with double and triple photomasks’ starts to deliver a single metal layer, it will be very important to tighten the multi-sensor inspection, defect abatement, and repair loops,” said Progler. He does see some clouds forming around high-volume manufacturing pellicles for metal layers. “This remains an open question, mainly for thermal and materials reasons, not to mention cost and cycle time,” Progler said. “We may be pessimistic, but we do not see an HVM pellicle solution converging in the required timeframe, which means leaning even more on a wafer-level inspection in the validation loop.” He believes that streamlining validation will be a differentiator. “I can imagine one losing most of the EUV cycle time benefits by endlessly circling masks around if this is not done well.”

How does the industry get to 3nm?     

ASML plans to ship its first high-NA EUV prototope/pilot systems between 2020 and 2023 to support 3-2nm process development. “System designs are now being finalized and the platform is starting to come to life,” said Lercel. ASML supplier ZEISS is building a high-NA cleanroom for optics production. ASML believes that EUV, high-NA and DUV systems will be used together at the most advanced nodes and is designing to account for this mixed environment. “As chipmakers drive toward smaller geometries in the most advanced nodes like 3nm, they face unprecedented challenges in devices and materials. This will make the process control requirements even more challenging.” ASML is tackling these challenges with its YieldStar metrology platform, e-beam metrology (HMI) and computational lithography solutions that are designed to expand the process window, enhance process control, and improve patterning defect detection. “This ‘Holistic Lithography’ approach will become increasingly important to ensure throughput and yield at the most advanced nodes.”

Levinson said that the issues he projects for 5nm will need to be addressed further at 3nm. “The challenges associated with resists at 3nm dimensions are such that it isn’t clear that chemically amplified resists will be capable of meeting requirements,” said Levinson. “If true, we would be seeing the most significant change in resist platforms in a quarter of a century. Potentially cost-reducing technologies such as directed self-assembly (DSA) are always welcome, but EUVL will be the lithographic workhorse through the 3nm node, and likely beyond.”

At 3nm, mask makers will confront the realities of higher EUV NA tools. “We will need to implement thinner mask absorbers, new films, and perhaps hard masks,” Progler said. “This puts us in a new materials regime for masks, and history has shown us the mask industry takes a long time to refine processes and tools for new mask materials.” He explained that the small scale of the mask ecosystem and the small number of large suppliers available to address the challenges accounts for this lengthy time frame.

Still, looking ahead, Progler noted that Photronics has already done a few studies on the impact of proposed half-field, high NA anamorphic optics on masks. “We uncovered some challenges that need to be addressed, particularly at boundaries and within the overall mask flow,” said Progler. As mask resolution continues to scale down, the industry will need fundamentally higher resolution mask making and inspection processes, requiring next-generation multi-beam mask writing and electron beam inspection, he explained.

At 3nm and below, Progler noted that the metrology needs for masks, while not as severe as that for wafers at these nodes, will test the mask equipment infrastructure in ways that could challenge the relatively small mask industry. “Of course, EUV multi-patterning comes into play as well, and with that, the SRAF sizes will drop below 20nm, requiring an asymmetric compensation over a much wider influence area than the OPC people are used to considering.” With EUV multi-patterning, Progler explained that it will be increasingly important to match or pair EUV masks and to consider how 3D effects and stochastics will drive new technology to enable new requirements for high-speed metrology and simulation components. “All the justifiable hand-wringing over EPE with ArF multi-patterning today gets introduced to the EUV scene when masks are ganged together to make a single device layer,” said Progler.

Originally published on the SEMI blog.

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $2.69 billion in billings worldwide in April 2018 (three-month average basis), according to the April Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Billings Report published today by SEMI. The billings figure is 10.7 percent higher than the final March 2018 level of $2.43 billion, and is 26.0 percent higher than the April 2017 billings level of $2.13 billion.

“April 2018 monthly billings for North American equipment manufacturers surpassed the October 2000 record high of $2.6 billion,” said Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI. “Storage, artificial intelligence and big data are driving strong demand for semiconductors, offsetting smartphone sales that have lagged expectations this year.”

The SEMI Billings report uses three-month moving averages of worldwide billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Billings
(3-mo. avg)
Year-Over-Year
November 2017
$2,052.3
27.2%
December 2017
$2,398.4
28.3%
January 2018
$2,370.1
27.5%
February 2018
$2,417.8
22.5%
March 2018 (final)
$2,431.8
16.9%
April 2018 (prelim)
$2,691.4
26.0%

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org), May 2018

SEMI, the global industry association representing the electronics manufacturing supply chain, today announced that the WT | Wearable Technologies Conference 2018 USA will co-locate July 11-12 with SEMICON West 2018 in San Francisco. The electronics industry’s premier U.S. event, SEMICON West — July 10-12 at Moscone North and South — will highlight engines of industry expansion including smart transportation, smart manufacturing, smart medtech, smart data, big data, artificial intelligence, blockchain and the Internet of Things (IoT). Click here to register.

“We are excited that the WT | Wearables Technologies Conference has joined SEMICON West to co-locate in 2018,” said David Anderson, president of SEMI Americas. “Our strategic partnership brings new content and more value to our extended supply chain. Every day the semiconductor industry makes chips smaller and faster with ever-higher performance. These innovations enable new wearable applications for smart living, smart medtech and healthcare that are continuously improving our lives. The WT | Wearable Technologies Conference speakers at SEMICON West 2018 will demonstrate just how they use semiconductor technology to deliver leading-edge wearables.”

“It is a great pleasure to collaborate with the leading global electronics manufacturing association and its successful SEMICON West event,” said Christian Stammel, CEO of WT | Wearables Technologies. “Since the beginning of our platform in 2006, the semiconductor industry has been a major driver of wearables and IoT innovation. All major developments in the WT application markets like healthcare (smart patches), safety and security (tracking solutions), lifestyle and sport (smartwatches and wristbands) and in the industrial field (AR / VR) were driven by semiconductor and MEMS innovations. Our program of expert speakers at SEMICON West will share the latest insights in the wearables market as the SEMI and WT ecosystems explore collaboration and innovation opportunities.”

IC Insights recently released its May Update to the 2018 McClean Report.  This Update included a look at the top-25 1Q18 semiconductor suppliers, a discussion of the 1Q18 IC industry market results, and an update of the 2018 capital spending forecast by company.

Overall, the capital spending story for 2018 is becoming much more positive as compared with the forecast presented in IC Insights’ March Update to The McClean Report 2018 (MR18).  In the March Update, IC Insights forecast an 8% increase in semiconductor industry capital spending for this year. However, as shown in Figure 1, IC Insights has raised its expectations for 2018 capital spending by six percentage points to a 14% increase.  If this increase occurs, it would be the first time that semiconductor industry capital outlays exceeded $100 billion.  The worldwide 2018 capital spending forecast figure is 53% higher than the spending just two years earlier in 2016.

Although Samsung says it still does not have a full-year capital spending forecast for this year it did say it will spend “less” in semiconductor capital outlays in 2018 as compared to 2017, when it spent $24.2 billion.  However, as of 1Q18, with regard to its capex, its “foot is still on the gas!”  Samsung spent $6.72 billion in capex for its semiconductor division in 1Q18, slightly higher than the average of the previous three quarters.  This figure is almost 4x the amount the company spent just two years earlier in 1Q16!  Over the past four quarters, Samsung has spent an incredible $26.6 billion in capital outlays for its semiconductor group. Wow!

IC Insights has estimated Samsung’s semiconductor group capital spending will be $20.0 billion this year, $4.2 billion less than it spent in 2017.  However, given the strong start to its spending this year, it appears there is currently more upside than downside potential to this forecast.

With the DRAM and NAND flash memory markets still very strong, SK Hynix is expected to ramp up its capital spending this year to $11.5 billion, 42% greater than the $8.1 billion it spent in 2017. The increased spending by SK Hynix this year will primarily focus on bringing on-line two large memory fabs—M15, a 3D NAND flash fab in Cheongju, South Korea and its expansion of its huge DRAM fab in Wuxi, China.  The Cheongju fab is being pushed to open before the end of this year.  The Wuxi fab is also targeted to open by the end of this year, a few months earlier than its original planned start date of early 2019.

Figure 1

After strong year-over-year growth of 24% in 2017, worldwide semiconductor revenue is forecast to grow for the third consecutive year in 2018 to $450 billion, up 7.7% over 2017, according to a new Semiconductor Applications Forecaster (SAF) from International Data Corporation (IDC). The SAF also forecasts that semiconductor revenues will log a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% from 2017-2022, reaching $482 billion in 2022.

The overall memory market was the key story of last year, due to strong demand, limited supply, and product mix constraints. The DRAM and NAND memory markets grew to $73 billion and $49 billion respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 77% and 52% for 2017. Excluding DRAM and NAND, the overall semiconductor market grew by 12% year over year. For 2018, non-memory semiconductors are forecast to grow $11 billion to $302 billion. Both DRAM and NAND will continue to grow this year, but are expected to decline from 2019-2021 before recovering slightly in 2022.

The strong memory market resulted in Samsung Electronics capturing the top semiconductor manufacturer spot away from Intel and raised the profile of all the memory manufacturers, which now represent three of the top five semiconductor companies compared to only two the previous year. Revenue concentration continued to increase for the overall market with the top 10 companies making up 60% of the semiconductor market compared to 56% in 2016 and 53% in 2015.

“Market consolidation in the semiconductor industry over the past five years continues to shape the competitive landscape for semiconductor suppliers as each company continues to refine its core markets and make acquisitions to find new and emerging sectors for growth. The pace of change and technology is expected to accelerate as machine learning and autonomous systems enable a more diverse set of architectures to address the opportunity. This will fuel the engine of growth for semiconductor technology over the next decade,” said Mario Morales, program vice president, Semiconductors at IDC.

The automotive market and the industrial markets will continue to be the leading areas of growth for the semiconductor market throughout the forecast period, growing at a 9.6% and 6.8% CAGR from 2017-2022. “The key drivers of electrification, connectivity and infotainment, advanced driver assistance (ADAS), and autonomous driving features will continue to drive the growth of semiconductor content on a per vehicle basis,” said Nina Turner, research manager for Semiconductors at IDC.

Other key findings from IDC’s Semiconductor Application Forecaster (excluding memory) include:

  • Semiconductor revenue for the computing industry segment will decline 4.0% this year and will show a negative CAGR of -0.7% for the 2017-2022 forecast period. Two bright spots for the computing segment are computing and enterprise SSDs, growing in high double digits and 9.8% CAGR respectively for 2017-2022.
  • Semiconductor revenue for the mobile wireless communications segment will grow 5.5% year over year this year with a CAGR of 5.8% for 2017-2022. Semiconductor revenue for 4G mobile phones will experience an annual growth rate of 10.9% in 2018 and a CAGR of 3.1% for 2017-2022. 5G will also drive growth in the later part of the forecast as the technology becomes mainstream by the middle of the next decade.
  • Communications infrastructure semiconductors are forecast to grow at a 1.7% CAGR from 2017-2022 with the strongest growth coming from consumer networks.

By Walt Custer, Custer Consulting Group

Broad global & U.S. electronic supply chain growth

The first quarter of this year was very strong globally, with growth across the entire electronics supply chain. Although Chart 1 is based on preliminary data, every electronics sector expanded –  with many in double digits. The U.S. dollar-denominated growth estimates in Chart 1 have effectively been amplified by about 5 percent by exchange rates (as stronger non-dollar currencies were consolidated to weaker U.S. dollars), but the first quarter global rates are very impressive nonetheless.

Walt Custer Chart 1

U.S. growth was also good (Chart 2) with Quarter 1 2018 total electronics equipment shipments up 7.2 percent over the same period last year. Since all the Chart 2 values are based on domestic (US$) sales, there is no growth amplification due to exchange rates.

Walt Custer Chart 2

We expect continued growth in Quarter 2 but not at the robust pace as the first quarter.

Chip foundry growth resumes

Taiwan-listed companies report their monthly revenues on a timely basis – about 10 days after month end. We track a composite of 14 Taiwan Stock Exchange listed chip foundries to maintain a “pulse” of this industry (Chart 3).

Walt Custer Chart 3

Chip foundry sales have been a leading indicator for global semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment shipments. After dropping to near zero in mid-2017, foundry growth is now rebounding.

Chart 4 compares 3/12 (3-month) growth rates of global semiconductor and semiconductor equipment sales to chip foundry sales. The foundry 3/12 has historically led semiconductors and SEMI equipment and is pointing to a coming cyclical upturn. It will be interesting to see how China’s semiconductor industry buildup impacts this historical foundry leading indicator’s performance.

Walt Custer Chart 4

Passive Component Shortages and Price Increases

Passive component availability and pricing are currently major issues. Per Chart 5, Quarter 1 2018 passive component revenues increased almost 25 percent over the same period last year. Inadequate component supplies are hampering many board assemblers with no short-term relief in sight.

Walt Custer Chart 5

Peeking into the Future

Looking forward, the global purchasing managers index (a broad leading indicator) has moderated but is still well in growth territory.

Walt Custer Chart 6

The world business outlook remains positive but requires continuous watching!

Walt Custer of Custer Consulting Group is an  analyst focused on the global electronics industry.

Originally published on the SEMI blog.

By Jay Chittooran

Jonathan Davis 3Testifying before a U.S. interagency panel weighing trade tariffs against China, a representative from the semiconductor manufacturing industry yesterday called for the removal of more than 100 products from the list of proposed tariffs, stressing that an escalation of the U.S.-Sino dispute could trigger a full-blown trade war and hasten deep, unintended damage including higher consumer prices, an expanded U.S. trade deficit, and a slowdown in U.S. economic growth.

Jonathan Davis, global vice president of industry advocacy at SEMI, the global association representing the electronics manufacturing supply chain, threw the industry’s weight behind protections for valuable intellectual property. But Davis argued that “if implemented as proposed, these tariffs will potentially cost tens of millions annually in additional taxes and lost revenue owing to reduced exports, threaten thousands of high-paying U.S. jobs, and not solve U.S. concerns with China.” Davis said the undue harm will ultimately undercut the ability of U.S. chipmakers to sell overseas, stifling innovation and curbing U.S. technological leadership.

In testimony at the hearing before the government panel that included representatives from the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), Departments of Treasury, Commerce, State and Defense, and the Council of Economic Advisers, Davis explained that more than 100 lines – products defined for the purpose of setting import duties – of the proposed tariffs would hamstring the semiconductor supply chain. The tariff lines include fundamental components of the semiconductor manufacturing process that are oxygen for the chip industry. As part of his testimony, Davis also submitted comments on the impact of the tariffs.

Charles Gray, general counsel at Teradyne, who also testified at the hearing, explained that the tariffs will threaten growth while penalizing U.S. companies with supply chains that touch China. Gray and Davis were among more than 100 industry leaders who provided more than 3,000 comments in the May 15-17 hearing to evaluate the impact and efficacy of the proposed tariffs.

The hearing followed the Trump administration’s heated, longstanding criticism of China for what it considers unfair trade practices, focusing specifically on intellectual property violations. In recent months, the administration has begun implementing trade actions against China that will increase tariffs, restrict cross-border investment, and introduce significant uncertainty for U.S. businesses.

The Section 301 investigation that determined China’s forced transfer of technology and intellectual property discriminated against U.S. firms prompted a proposed 25 percent tariff on $50 billion in U.S. imports from China – a punitive measure that would squarely hit the semiconductor manufacturing industry.

SEMI continues to educate policymakers on the deep damage tariffs would exact on the long-term health of the semiconductor industry and the critical importance of balanced trade to the future of the semiconductor industry.

For more information on trade or how to participate in SEMI’s public policy program, please contact Jay Chittooran, SEMI public policy manager, at [email protected].