Category Archives: Metrology

Semiconductor revenues are expected to increase 12.8% in 2018 as a result of continued strong memory prices. Units are expected to grow 7.2%. The forecast is based on moderate smartphone sales with a possible return to lower memory prices in the second half of the year. This, among other market issues, will push 2018 wafer demand to over 115 million units in 300mm equivalents according to Semico Research’s newest report, Semico Wafer Demand Update Q2 2018 (MA111-18).

“Semiconductor manufacturers are rolling out new products targeted at artificial intelligence applications. Products require both the most advanced technologies for AI training functions as well as potentially high-volume products for edge devices,” says Joanne Itow, Manager Manufacturing Research for Semico. “On the other side of the technology spectrum, mature processes for sensors and analog products such as biometric sensors, RF and power management continue to be in high demand aided by growth in Internet of Things (IoT) applications along with more ‘smart devices’ that are beginning to build in algorithms that are the precursor to full-fledged AI devices.”

Key findings include:

  • 2018 NAND revenues are expected to increase 18.9%.
  • MCU revenues are expected to exceed $17 billion in 2018.
  • Total Communication MOS Logic wafer demand is expected to increase 4.0% in 2018.
  • Sensor units are expected to grow 20.4% in 2018.

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $2.49 billion in billings worldwide in June 2018 (three-month average basis), according to the June Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Billings Report published today by SEMI. The billings figure is 8.0 percent lower than the final May 2018 level of $2.70 billion, and is 8.1 percent higher than the June 2017 billings level of $2.30 billion.

“Global billings of North American equipment manufacturers declined for the current month by 8 percent from the historic high but is still 8 percent higher than billings for the same period last year,” said Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI. “Billings remain robust.”

The SEMI Billings report uses three-month moving averages of worldwide billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Billings
(3-mo. avg)
Year-Over-Year
January 2018
$2,370.1
27.5%
February 2018
$2,417.8
22.5%
March 2018
$2,431.8
16.9%
April 2018
$2,689.9
25.9%
May 2018 (final)
$2,702.3
19.0%
June 2018 (prelim)
$2,485.7
8.1%

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org), July 2018

SEMI publishes a monthly North American Billings report and issues the Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) report in collaboration with the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ). The WWSEMS report currently reports billings by 24 equipment segments and by seven end market regions. SEMI also has a long history of tracking semiconductor industry fab investments in detail on a company-by-company and fab-by-fab basis in its World Fab Forecast and SEMI FabView databases. These powerful tools provide access to spending forecasts, capacity ramp, technology transitions, and other information for over 1,000 fabs worldwide. For an overview of available SEMI market data, please visit www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo.

In its upcoming Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2018 (to be released at the end of July), IC Insights forecasts that the 2018 global electronic systems market will grow 5% to $1,622 billion while the worldwide semiconductor market is expected to surge by 14% this year to $509.1 billion, exceeding the $500.0 billion level for the first time.  If the 2018 forecasts come to fruition, the average semiconductor content in an electronic system will reach 31.4%, breaking the all-time record of 28.8% that was set in 2017 (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Historically, the driving force behind the higher average annual growth rate of the semiconductor industry as compared to the electronic systems market is the increasing value or content of semiconductors used in electronic systems.  With global unit shipments of cellphones (-1%), automobiles (3%), and PCs (-1%) forecast to be weak in 2018, the disparity between the moderate growth in the electronic systems market and high growth of the semiconductor market is directly due to the increasing content of semiconductors in electronic systems.

While the trend of increasing semiconductor content has been evident for the past 30 years, the big jump in the average semiconductor content in electronic systems in 2018 is expected to be primarily due to the huge surge in DRAM and NAND flash ASPs and average electronic system sales growth this year. After slipping to 30.2% in 2020, the semiconductor content percentage is expected to climb to a new high of 31.5% in 2022.  IC Insights does not anticipate the percentage will fall below 30% any year through the forecast period.

The trend of increasingly higher semiconductor value in electronic systems has a limit.  Extrapolating an annual increase in the percent semiconductor figure indefinitely would, at some point in the future, result in the semiconductor content of an electronic system reaching 100%.  Whatever the ultimate ceiling is, once it is reached, the average annual growth for the semiconductor industry will closely track that of the electronic systems market (i.e., about 4%-5% per year).

The Mid-Year Update to the 2018 McClean Report revises IC Insights’ worldwide economic and IC industry forecasts through 2022 that were originally presented in The 2018 McClean Report issued in January.

The Figure shows that IC Insights forecasts that China-headquartered companies will spend $11.0 billion in semiconductor industry capex in 2018, which would represent 10.6% of the expected worldwide outlays of $103.5 billion.  Not only would this amount be 5x what the Chinese companies spent only three years earlier in 2015, but it would also exceed the combined semiconductor industry capital spending of Japan- and Europe-headquartered companies this year.

Since adopting the fab-lite business model, the three major European producers have represented a very small share of total semiconductor industry capital expenditures and are forecast to account for only 4% of global spending in 2018 after representing 8% of worldwide capex in 2005.  Although there may be an occasional spike in capital spending from European companies (e.g., the surge in spending from ST and AMS in 2017), IC Insights believes that Europe-headquartered companies will represent only 3% of worldwide semiconductor capital expenditures in 2022.

It should be noted that several Japanese semiconductor companies have also transitioned to a fab-lite business model (e.g., Renesas, Sony, etc.).  With strong competition reducing the number and strength of Japanese semiconductor manufacturers, the loss of its vertically integrated businesses and thus missing out on supplying devices for several high-volume end-use applications, and its collective shift toward fab-lite business models, Japanese companies have greatly reduced their investment in new wafer fabs and equipment. In fact, Japanese companies are forecast to represent only 6% of total semiconductor industry capital expenditures in 2018, a big decline from the 22% share they held in 2005 and an even more precipitous drop from the 51% share they held in 1990.

Although China-headquartered pure-play foundry SMIC has been part of the list of major semiconductor industry capital spenders for quite some time, there are four additional Chinese companies that are forecast to become significant semiconductor industry spenders this year and next—memory suppliers XMC/YMTC, Innotron, JHICC, and pure-play foundry Shanghai Huali.  Each of these companies is expected to spend a considerable amount of money equipping and ramping up their new fabs in 2018 and 2019.

Due to the increased spending by startup China-based memory manufacturers, IC Insights believes that the Asia-Pac/Others share of semiconductor industry capital spending will remain over 60% for at least the next couple of years.

HEIDENHAIN announced the appointment of David Doyle as CEO of HEIDENHAIN CORPORATION, effective Oct. 1, 2018.  At that time, Doyle will assume full responsibility for the HEIDENHAIN CORPORATION customer-focused operations for the U.S., Canada and Mexico. This change will complete the succession plan for Rick Korte, current CEO of HEIDENHAIN CORPORATION who will be retiring at that time after more than 34 years of service.

“I am happy to announce the next phase of the succession plan for our North American operations, with the promotion of David Doyle to CEO,” said Korte. “I have the utmost confidence in David and trust he will continue to grow our business and support our customers with World Class service in all areas.”

Doyle started with HEIDENHAIN CORPORATION in 2016 as Vice President of Sales & Marketing, bringing with him more than twenty-five years of experience in international capital equipment business and technical support management.  He currently serves as its President and Managing Director.

“I want to thank Rick Korte for leading HEIDENHAIN CORPORATION in tremendous growth over these many years, and for the guidance he has provided to not only myself, but to the many staff members who have called HEIDENHAIN home for so long,” said Doyle.  “I am looking forward to leading the HEIDENHAIN CORPORATION team through the next phase of development and to reaching our growth objectives in North America by continuing to put our Customers First.”

DR. JOHANNES HEIDENHAIN GmbH, headquartered in Traunreut, Germany, develops and supports motion control feedback solutions for the machine tool, semiconductor, electronics assembly and test, metrology, automation, medical, energy, biotechnology and other global markets. HEIDENHAIN employs approximately 6,000 people worldwide in its core business activities.

BY PAUL VAN DER HEIDE, director of materials and components analysis, imec, Leuven, Belgium

To keep up with Moore’s Law, the semiconductor industry continues to push the envelope in developing new device architectures containing novel materials. This in turn pushes the need for new solid-state analytical capabilities, whether for materials characterization or inline metrology. Aside from basic R&D, these capabilities are established at critical points of the semiconductor device manufacturing line, to measure, for example, the thickness and composition of a thin film, dopant profiles of transistor’s source/drain regions, the nature of defects on a wafer’s surface, etc. This approach is used to reduce “time to data”. We cannot wait until the end of the manufacturing line to know if a device will be functional or not. Every process step costs money and a fully functional device can take months to fabricate. Recent advances in instrumentation and computational power have opened the door to many new, exciting analytical possibilities.

One example that comes to mind concerns the development of coherent sources. So far, coherent photon sources have been used for probing the atomic and electronic structure of materials, but only within large, dedicated synchrotron radiation facilities. Through recent developments, table top coherent photon sources have been introduced that could soon see demand in the semiconductor lab/fab environment.

The increased computational power now at our finger tips is also allowing us to make the most of these and other sources through imaging techniques such as ptychography. Ptychog- raphy allows for the complex patterns resulting from coherent electron or photon interaction with a sample to be processed into recognizable images to a resolution close to the sources wavelength without the requirement of lenses (lenses tend to introduce aberrations). Potential application areas extend from non-destructive imaging of surface and subsurface structures, to probing chemical reactions at sub femto-second timescales.

Detector developments are also benefiting many analytical techniques presently used. As an example, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) can now image, with atomic resolution, heavy as well as light elements. Combining this with increased computational power, allows for further devel- opment of imaging approaches such as tomography, holography, ptychography, differential phase contrast imaging, etc. All of which allow TEM/STEM to not only look at atoms in e.g. 2D materials such as MoS2 in far greater detail, but also opens the possibility to map electric fields and magnetic domains to unprecedented resolution.

The semiconductor industry is evolving at a very rapid pace. Since the beginning of the 21st century, we have seen numerous disruptive technologies emerge; technologies that need to serve is an increasingly fragmented applications space. It’s no longer solely about ‘the central processing unit (CPU)’. Other applications ranging from the internet of things, autonomous vehicles, wearable human-electronics interface, etc., are being pursued, each coming with unique requirements and analytical needs.

Looking ten to fifteen years ahead, we will witness a different landscape. Although I’m sure that existing techniques such as TEM/STEM will still be heavily used – probably more so than we realize now (we are already seeing TEM/STEM being extended into the fab). We will also see developments that will push the boundaries of what is possible. This would range from the increased use of hybrid metrology (combining results from multiple different analytical techniques and process steps) to the development of new innovative approaches.

To illustrate the latter, I take the example of secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). With SIMS, an energetic ion beam is directed at the solid sample of interest, causing atoms in the near surface region to leave this surface. A small percentage of them are ionized, and pass through a mass spectrometer which separates the ions from one another according to their mass to charge ratio. When this is done in the dynamic-SIMS mode, a depth profile of the sample’s composition can be derived. Today, with this technique, we can’t focus the incoming energetic ion beam into a confined volume, i.e. onto a spot that approaches the size of a transistor. But at imec, novel concepts were intro- duced, resulting in what are called 1.5D SIMS and self-focusing SIMS (SF-SIMS). These approaches are based on the detection of constituents within repeatable array structures, giving averaged and statistically significant information. This way, the spatial resolution limit of SIMS was overcome.

And there are exciting developments occurring here at imec in other analytical fields such as atom probe tomography (APT), photoelectron spectroscopy (PES), Raman spectroscopy, Rutherford back scattering (RBS), scanning probe microscopy (SPM), etc. One important milestone has been the development of Fast Fourier Transform-SSRM (FFT-SSRM) at imec. This allows one to measure carrier distributions in FinFETs to unparalleled sensitivity.

Yet, probably the biggest challenge materials characterization and inline metrology face over the next ten to fifteen years will be how to keep costs down. Today, we make use of highly specialized techniques developed on mutually exclusive and costly platforms. But why not make use of micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) that could simultaneously perform analysis in a highly parallel fashion, and perhaps even in situ? One can imagine scenarios in which an army of such units could scan an entire wafer in the fraction of the time it takes now, or alternatively, the incorporation of such units into wafer test structure regions.

Market shares of semiconductor equipment manufacturers shifted significantly in Q1 2018 as Applied Materials, the top supplier dropped, according to the report “Global Semiconductor Equipment: Markets, Market Shares, Market Forecasts,” recently published by The Information Network, a New Tripoli-based market research company.

The chart below shows shares for the first quarter (Q1) of calendar year 2017 and 2018. Market shares are for equipment only, excluding service and spare parts, and have been converted for revenues of foreign companies to U.S. dollars on a quarterly exchange rate.

Applied Materials lost significant market share YoY, from 18.4% of the $13.1 billion Q1 2017 market to 17.7% of the $17.0 billion Q1 2018 market. This drop follows a 1.8 share-point loss by Applied Materials for CY 2017 compared to 2016. The company competes with Lam Research and TEL in the deposition and etch market, and both gained share at the expense of Applied Materials.

At the other end of the spectrum, smaller semiconductor companies making up the “other” category lost 2.4 share points as a whole.

Much of the equipment revenue growth was attributed to strong growth in the DRAM and NAND sectors, as equipment was installed in memory manufacturers Intel, Micron Technology, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Toshiba, and Western Digital. The memory sector, which grew grown 61.5% in 2017, is forecast to add another 28.5% in 2018 according to industry consortium WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics).

TEL recorded growth of 120.3% YoY in Korea, much of it on NAND and DRAM sales to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and 69.5% YoY in Japan, much of it on NAND sales to Toshiba at its Fab 6 in Kitakami, Japan. Lam Research gained 42.2% and 70.5% YoY, respectively, in Korea and Japan.

Following the strong growth in the semiconductor equipment market, The Information Network projects another 11.5% growth in 2018 for semiconductor equipment.

Smart technologies take center stage tomorrow as SEMICON West, the flagship U.S. event for connecting the electronics manufacturing supply chain, opens for three days of insights into leading technologies and applications that will power future industry expansion. Building on this year’s record-breaking industry growth, SEMICON West – July 10-12, 2018, at the Moscone Center in San Francisco – spotlights how cognitive learning technologies and other disruptors will transform industries and lives.

Themed BEYOND SMART and presented by SEMI, SEMICON West 2018 features top technologists and industry leaders highlighting the significance of artificial intelligence (AI) and the latest technologies and trends in smart transportation, smart manufacturing, smart medtech, smart data, big data, blockchain and the Internet of Things (IoT).

Seven keynotes and more than 250 subject matter experts will offer insights into critical opportunities and issues across the global microelectronics supply chain. The event also features new Smart Pavilions to showcase interactive technologies for immersive, virtual experiences.

Smart transportation and smart manufacturing pavilions: Applying AI to accelerate capabilities

Automotive leads all new applications in semiconductor growth and is a major demand driver for technologies inrelated segments such as MEMS and sensors. The SEMICON West Smart Transportation and Smart Manufacturing pavilions showcase AI breakthroughs that are enabling more intelligent transportation performance and manufacturing processes, increasing yields and profits, and spurring innovation across the industry.

Smart workforce pavilion: Connecting next-generation talent with the microelectronics industry

SEMICON West also tackles the vital industry issue of how to attract new talent with the skills to deliver future innovations. Reliant on a highly skilled workforce, the industry today faces thousands of job openings, fierce competition for workers and the need to strengthen its talent pipeline. Educational and engaging, the Smart Workforce Pavilion connects the microelectronics industry with college students and entry-level professionals.

In the Workforce Pavilion “Meet the Experts” Theater, recruiters from top companies are available for on-the-spot interviews, while career coaches offer mentoring, tips on cover letter and resume writing, job-search guidance, and more. SEMI will also host High Tech U (HTU) in conjunction with the SEMICON West Smart Workforce Pavilion. The highly interactive program supported by Advantest, Edwards, KLA-Tencor and TEL exposes high school students to STEM education pathways and useful insights about careers in the industry.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $38.7 billion for the month of May 2018, an increase of 21.0 percent compared to the May 2017 total of $32.0 billion. Global sales in May were 3 percent higher than the April 2018 total of $37.6 billion. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“The global semiconductor market has posted consistent growth of greater than 20 percent for 14 consecutive months, and May 2018 marked the industry’s highest-ever monthly sales,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “The Americas led the way once again, with sales increasing by more than 30 percent compared to last year, and sales were up across all major semiconductor product categories on both a year-to-year and month-to-month basis.”

Year-to-year sales increased solidly across all regions: the Americas (31.6 percent), China (28.5 percent), Europe (18.7 percent), Japan (14.7 percent), and Asia Pacific/All Other (8.7 percent). Month-to-month sales increased more modestly across all regions: China (6.3 percent), Japan (2.6 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (1.2 percent), the Americas (1.1 percent), and Europe (1.0 percent).

SEMICON West next week will host a White House-led discussion of the anticipated national leadership strategy for semiconductors, a multi-agency initiative led by top U.S. government national security and economic organizations.

On Wednesday, July 11, a panel of U.S. officials representing agencies involved in leading the strategy will address federal research and development (R&D), investment and acquisition priorities aimed at ensuring the U.S. remains the global leader in the semiconductor industry.

As global economic trends and technologies such as artificial intelligence evolve, and foreign governments increasingly lure microelectronics manufacturing investments overseas, the U.S. strategy for manufacturing advanced semiconductors and driving research and development (R&D) in technology innovation has become an economic priority.

The White House selected SEMICON West, organized by SEMI, as the site for the discussion and this urgent call to action because of the event’s central role in bringing together critical industries across the global electronics supply chain. The multi-agency panel will outline activities and new policies under development to ensure U.S. strategic leadership in microelectronics, including focused investment in innovations key to the next generation of devices for commercial and government use. The initiative also includes public-private partnerships to accelerate the capabilities of advanced semiconductors for critical applications such as artificial intelligence (AI), cyber, secure communications, the internet of things (IoT) and big data analytics.

PANEL:
National Strategy for Semiconductor and Microelectronic Innovation
TIME AND DATE:
10:30 to 11:30 a.m., Wednesday, July 11
LOCATION:
Yerba Buena Theater, 700 Howard St., San Francisco
MODERATOR:
Dr. Lloyd Whitman, Principal Assistant Director, Physical Sciences and Engineering, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
PANELISTS:
Dr. Sankar Basu, Program Director, Computer and Information Science and Engineering, National Science Foundation
Dr. Eric W. Forsythe, Flexible Electronics Team Leader, U.S. Army Research Laboratory
Dr. Jeremy Muldavin, Deputy Director of Defense Software & Microelectronics Activities, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Systems Engineering
Dr. Robinson Pino, Acting Research Division Director, Advanced Scientific Computing Research, Office of Science, Department of Energy

 

SEMICON West is organized by SEMI Americas to connect more than 2,000 member companies and 1.3 million professionals worldwide to advance the technology and business of electronics manufacturing. SEMICON West is celebrating its 47th year as the flagship event for the semiconductor industry. Find more at www.semiconwest.org.