Category Archives: Metrology

BY PETE SINGER, Editor-in-Chief

At a SEMICON West press conference, SEMI released its Mid-year Forecast. Worldwide sales of new semiconductor manufacturing equipment are projected to increase 19.8 percent to total $49.4 billion in 2017, marking the first time that the semiconductor equipment market has exceeded the market high of $47.7 billion set in 2000. In 2018, 7.7 percent growth is expected, resulting in another record-breaking year—totaling $53.2 billion for the global semiconductor equipment market.

“It’s really an exciting time for the industry in the terms of technology, the growth in information and data and that’s all going to require semiconductors to enable that growth,” said Dan Tracy, senior director, IR&S at SEMI.

The average of various analysts forecast the semiconductor industry in general 12% growth for the year. “It’s a very good growth year for the industry,” Tracy said. “In January, the consensus was about 5% growth for the year and with the improvement in the market and the firmer pricing for memory we see an increase in the outlook for the market.”

The SEMI Mid-year Forecast predicts wafer processing equipment is anticipated to increase 21.7 percent in 2017 to total $39.8 billion. The other front-end segment, which consists of fab facilities equipment, wafer manufacturing, and mask/reticle equipment, will increase 25.6 percent to total $2.3 billion. The assembly and packaging equipment segment is projected to grow by 12.8 percent to $3.4 billion in 2017 while semiconductor test equipment is forecast to increase by 6.4 percent, to a total of $3.9 billion this year.

“Based on the May outlook, we are looking at a record year in terms of tracking equipment spending. This is for new equipment, used equipment, and spending related to the facility that installed the equipment. It will be about a $49 billion market this year. Next year, it’s going to grow to $54 billion, so we have two years in a row of back to back record spending,” Tracy said.

In 2017, South Korea will be the largest equipment market for the first time. After maintaining the top spot for five years, Taiwan will place second, while China will come in third. All regions tracked will experience growth, with the exception of Rest of World (primarily Southeast Asia). South Korea will lead in growth with 68.7 percent, followed by Europe at 58.6 percent, and North America at 16.3 percent.

SEMI forecasts that in 2018, equipment sales in China will climb the most, 61.4 percent, to a total of $11.0 billion, following 5.9 percent growth in 2017. In 2018, South Korea, Taiwan, and China are forecast to remain the top three markets, with South Korea maintaining the top spot to total $13.4 billion. China is forecasted to become the second largest market at $11.0 billion, while equipment sales to Taiwan are expected to reach $10.9 billion.

The lithography metrology equipment market is riding on the high wave of the semiconductor industry. The 2x and 1x nodes of memory and logic devices, coupled with the sensor and connected devices required to support the growth in IoT, self-driving cars, and ARs are among the key drivers which will drive the lithography metrology market. Worth $957.9 million in 2016, the market is expected reach revenue of $ 1370.1 million by 2021 at a CAGR of 7.4% although each product segment will vary in growth rate. The overlay and OCD segment will witness high growth driven primarily by the technical capability to measure at required specification and high throughput for the sub-28nm nodes.

The study focuses on both dimensional and placement metrology systems used for the process control in patterning the wafers and reticles in semiconductor fabs and mask shops, particularly after mask and etch processes of the process flow.

The metrology systems covered in the study includes:
• CD-SEM
• OCD
• Overlay

The market size of each product segment is provided for 2016 and forecasted up to 2021. The competitive landscape of each segment and the market share of key competitors such as Hitachi High-Technologies, KLA-Tencor, and ASML are also provided along with their strategic approach towards the market. The market participants are working towards enhancing the current capabilities to stay valid with device miniaturization and growing complexity of the architecture. A comparison of the current technological capability of each product is also provided. Furthermore, an insight into new technologies being developed to meet the future needs of the industry is also provided.

The study highlights and analyzes the factors that will enable market growth and the challenges that the industry will face during 2017 to 2021. In addition, the study covers a geographical analysis of the market with revenue in 2016 and an analysis of forecasted growth until 2021.

Key Questions this Study will Answer
• Which product segment will grow the fastest in the next 5 years and what is the market size in terms of revenue for each of the segments?
• What impact will IoT and industry inflection will have on the market?
• What are the key market and technology trends?
• What are the competitive landscape and dynamics influencing the growth and development of the market?

Read the full report: http://www.reportlinker.com/p05075852/Analysis-of-Global-Lithography-Metrology-Equipment-Market-Forecast-to.html

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $2.27 billion in billings worldwide in July 2017 (three-month average basis), according to the July Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Billings Report published today by SEMI.

SEMI reports that the three-month average of worldwide billings of North American equipment manufacturers in July 2017 was $2.27 billion. The billings figure is 1.4 percent lower than the final June 2017 level of $2.30 billion, and is 32.8 percent higher than the July 2016 billings level of $1.71 billion.

“We observed softening in the equipment billings in July following the strong surge in the first half of the year,” said Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI. “However, overall, equipment billings remain significantly up year-over-year, with 2017 on-track to be a record spending year.”

The SEMI Billings report uses three-month moving averages of worldwide billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Billings
(3-mo. avg)
Year-Over-Year
February 2017
$1,974.0
63.9%
March 2017
$2,079.7
73.7%
April 2017
$2,136.4
46.3%
May 2017
$2,270.5
41.8%
June 2017 (final)
$2,300.3
34.1%
July 2017 (prelim)
$2,268.4
32.8%

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org), August 2017

IC Insights has revised its outlook for semiconductor industry capital spending and presented its new findings in the August Update to The McClean Report 2017.  IC Insights’ latest forecast is for semiconductor industry capital spending to climb 20% this year.

Figure 1 shows the steep upward trend of quarterly capital spending in the semiconductor industry since 1Q16. Although there was a slight pause in the upward trajectory in 1Q17, 2Q17 set a new record for quarterly spending outlays.   Moreover, 1H17 semiconductor industry spending was 48% greater than in 1H16.  IC Insights believes that whether industry-wide capital spending in the second half of 2017 can match the first half of the year is greatly dependent upon the level of Samsung’s 2H17 spending outlays.

Not only has Samsung Semiconductor been on a tear with regard to its semiconductor sales, surging into the number one ranking in 2Q17, but the company has also been on a tremendous capital spending spree for its semiconductor division this year.  As depicted in Figure 2, Samsung spent a whopping $11.0 billion in capital outlays for its semiconductor group in 1H17, more than 3x greater than the company spent in 1H16 and only $300 million less than the company spent in all of 2016!   In fact, Samsung’s capital expenditures in 1H17 represented 25% of the total semiconductor industry capital spending and 28% of the outlays in 2Q17.

While the company has publicly reported that it spent $11.0 billion in capital outlays for its semiconductor division in 1H17 (a $22.0 billion annual run-rate), Samsung has been very secretive about revealing its full-year 2017 budget for its semiconductor group (it might be afraid of shocking the industry with such a big number!).  In 2012, the year of Samsung’s previous first half spending surge before 1H17, the company cut its second half capital outlays by more than 50%, from $8.5 billion in 1H12 to $3.7 billion in 2H12.  Will the company follow the same pattern in 2017?  At this point, it is impossible to tell.  IC Insights believes that Samsung’s full-year 2017 capital expenditures could range from $15.0 billion to $22.0 billion!

Figure 1

Figure 1

If Samsung spends $22.0 billion in capital outlays this year, total semiconductor industry capital spending could reach $85.4 billion, which would represent a 27% increase over the $67.3 billion the industry spent in 2016.

It is interesting to note that two of the major spenders, TSMC and Intel, are expected to move in opposite directions with regard to their 2H17 capital spending plans. TSMC spent about $6.8 billion in capital outlays in 1H17. If it sticks to its $10.0 billion budget this year, which it reiterated in its second quarter results, it would only spend about $3.2 billion in 2H17, less than half its outlays in 1H17. In contrast, Intel spent only about $4.7 billion in 1H17, leaving the company to spend about $7.3 billion in 2H17 in order to reach its stated full-year 2017 spending budget of $12.0 billion.

Figure 2

Figure 2

TowerJazz, the global specialty foundry, and Tacoma Technology Ltd and Tacoma (Nanjing) Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd (collectively known as “Tacoma”) announced today that Tower has received a first payment of $18 million net, rendering phase one of the framework agreement with Tacoma binding. This agreement maps the establishment of a new 8-inch semiconductor fabrication facility in Nanjing, China. According to the terms of the framework agreement, TowerJazz will provide technological expertise together with operational and integration consultation, for which the Company shall receive additional payments based on milestones during the next few years, subject to a definitive agreement specifying all terms and conditions.

In addition, from the start of production at the facility, TowerJazz will be entitled to capacity allocation of up to 50% of the targeted 40,000 wafer per month fab capacity, which it may decide to use at its discretion. This capacity will provide TowerJazz with additional manufacturing capability and flexibility to address its growing global demand.

Tacoma will be responsible to source funds for all activities, milestones and deliverables of the entire project, including the construction, commissioning and ramp of this facility, with the project being fully supported by Nanjing Economic and Technology Development Zone through its Administration Committee, Credito Capital as well as through potential funding from other third party investors and entities.

“This agreement with Tacoma is in line with our business strategy to focus on growing markets such as China. The fabless business in China has grown rapidly in the past years. The new 8-inch fabrication facility in Nanjing will provide us with a strategic footprint in China and the opportunity to extend our offerings in advanced specialty process technologies by enabling customers in China to optimize their product performance and time to market,” said Dr. Itzhak Edrei, TowerJazz President.

Russell Ellwanger, TowerJazz Chief Executive Officer, commented, “We are exploring multiple opportunities in China, and determined this agreement with Tacoma to be a good fit for TowerJazz, providing a roadmap for a meaningful long-term strategic partnership. China’s focus to develop its domestic semiconductor industry with full infrastructure presents additional opportunities for TowerJazz, as a global analog leader, to expand our served markets and geographic presence. This partnership will enable us to further fulfill our customers’ needs through additional available capacity as well as to be an active player in the growing Chinese market.”

Joseph Lee, Tacoma Chairman, stated: “Deeply engraved in the corporate culture of both Tacoma and TowerJazz is the core belief in working ‘SMART’ with ‘PASSION.’ Our people are committed to contributing to our business partners, the global semiconductor industry and society with the best endeavor and integrity. Tacoma will fully fund this project together with Credito Capital and other entities. This venture will become a dominant player in Asia and will raise the standard in the semiconductor industry to another level.”

A groundbreaking and signing ceremony took place in Nanjing, China, attended by TowerJazz Chairman Mr. Amir Elstein, President Dr. Itzhak Edrei, Business Development Vice President Mr. Erez Imberman, as well as the then Israeli Ambassador to China the Honorable Mr. Matan Vilnai. Pictured, the signing between Tacoma Chairman, Mr. Joseph Lee and TowerJazz CEO Mr. Russell Ellwanger, with among others the above cited attendees.

The SEMI Foundation today announced that it will be celebrating its 10th anniversary of partnership with New York State United Teachers (NYSUT) on August 22-23 in Latham, New York at the NYSUT headquarters.  The Foundation and NYSUT will culminate a two-day SEMI High Tech U program for teachers on Wednesday, August 23rd with a reception recognizing industry instructors from Applied Materials and KLA-Tencor for leadership in volunteerism and STEM education.

The SEMI Foundation’s acclaimed STEM program, SEMI High Tech U – Teacher Edition has reached more than 600 teachers in upstate New York since 2007.  The two-day teacher program provides industry led, hands-on activities and curriculum that teachers can take back to the classroom in addition to unique opportunities to network with high-tech industry professionals.  Teachers-turned-students also tour the College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering for a first-hand look at how relevant STEM skills are utilized in a high-tech workplace.  This fall, the teachers’ new knowledge will be passed along to their students in the classroom. A retrospective survey of past SEMI High Tech U teacher participants showed that 95 percent of teachers who attend SEMI High Tech U – Teacher Edition gain an increased understanding of the relevance of STEM skills in today’s workplace.

This year’s program at NYSUT is supported by Applied Materials, GLOBALFOUNDRIES and KLA-Tencor.

Leslie Tugman, executive director of the SEMI Foundation, states, “NYSUT is a premier model of how education and industry partnerships can work together for the benefit of all in their region.  Through NYSUT’s High Tech U programs for teachers, we have exponentially reached thousands of students to help fill the high-tech talent pipeline.”

All SEMI High Tech U modules are taught by industry professionals and two legacy volunteer instructors, Vincent Villaume of Applied Materials and Jeff Barnum of KLA-Tencor, will be honored at a reception at NYSUT on August 23.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $97.9 billion during the second quarter of 2017, an increase of 5.8 percent over the previous quarter and 23.7 percent more than the second quarter of 2016. Global sales for the month of June 2017 reached $32.6 billion, an uptick of 2.0 percent over last month’s total of $32.0 billion, and a surge of 23.7 percent compared to the June 2016 total of $26.4 billion. Cumulatively, year-to-date sales during the first half of 2017 were 20.8 percent higher than they were at the same point in 2016. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“The global semiconductor industry has enjoyed impressive sales growth midway through 2017, posting its highest-ever quarterly sales in Q2 and record monthly sales in June,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Sales into the Americas market were particularly robust in June, and all regional markets saw growth of at least 18 percent year-over-year. Conditions are favorable for continued market growth in the months ahead.”

Regionally, sales increased compared to June 2016 in the Americas (33.4 percent), China (25.5 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (19.5 percent), Europe (18.3 percent), and Japan (18.0 percent). Sales also were up across all regions compared to last month: the Americas (5.1 percent), Europe (1.9 percent), China (1.5 percent), Japan (1.0 percent), and Asia Pacific/All Other (0.8 percent).

June 2017

Billions

Month-to-Month Sales                              

Market

Last Month

Current Month

% Change

Americas

6.27

6.59

5.1%

Europe

3.11

3.16

1.9%

Japan

2.95

2.98

1.0%

China

10.25

10.41

1.5%

Asia Pacific/All Other

9.43

9.50

0.8%

Total

32.00

32.64

2.0%

Year-to-Year Sales                         

Market

Last Year

Current Month

% Change

Americas

4.94

6.59

33.4%

Europe

2.68

3.16

18.3%

Japan

2.52

2.98

18.0%

China

8.29

10.41

25.5%

Asia Pacific/All Other

7.95

9.50

19.5%

Total

26.38

32.64

23.7%

Three-Month-Moving Average Sales

Market

Jan/Feb/Mar

Apr/May/Jun

% Change

Americas

5.96

6.59

10.5%

Europe

2.96

3.16

7.1%

Japan

2.84

2.98

4.8%

China

10.06

10.41

3.4%

Asia Pacific/All Other

9.02

9.50

5.4%

Total

30.84

32.64

5.8%

Covalent Metrology announced today that it has consolidated operations in a larger facility located in Santa Clara, CA. The new facility is positioned near Highway 101 and just off the San Tomas Expressway, reducing travel time for customers on the Peninsula or in the East Bay wishing to be present during measurement sessions. With more than 3,000 ft2 of available space, the facility allows co-location of the Covalent team and existing tools and provides ample room for further growth.

Consolidating operations will help the company better serve its customers, facilitating smoother communication and providing easier access to the tools. This is of particular importance because Covalent encourages Analytical Service customers to attend measurement sessions when possible. Being present during measurements offers customers the opportunity to provide dynamic feedback, tending to lead to more relevant results and better understanding of those results.

The new location includes a room dedicated to AFM operations, as well as a large open area that will welcome new tools as the company expands and more metrology techniques are added to the portfolio. Covalent Metrology was founded by Craig Hunter, previously founding general manager of both the thin film solar business at Applied Materials and the Clean Energy Group at Intermolecular. Mr. Hunter commented, “It is an exciting time at Covalent as we move into a new and larger facility, having the team all together and focused on growing our offerings and improving our services. There is a real “start-up” energy about the place as we strive to make a dent on the materials innovation ecosystem. We are still small but our ambition—to improve R&D efficiency by providing customers better data, faster and cheaper—is large.”

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced retired Gen. Keith Alexander, former Director of the National Security Agency (NSA) and Commander of U.S. Cyber Command, will deliver the keynote address at SIA’s 40th Anniversary Award Dinner, taking place on Tuesday, Nov. 14 in San Jose, Calif. Alexander, who currently serves as CEO and President of IronNet Cybersecurity, will offer insight on how America’s national security depends heavily on maintaining global leadership in the technologies that are crucial to the functioning of the U.S. military, including semiconductors. He will also discuss the importance of promoting next-generation technologies in order to tackle America’s future cybersecurity challenges.

“Gen. Keith Alexander knows what it takes to maintain and strengthen U.S. defense and cybersecurity, including the importance of advancing America’s global technology leadership,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Semiconductors enable our military’s critical communications, navigation, weapons, and intelligence systems, as well as emergent applications like high-performance computing, data analytics, artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and others that are central to our national security. A vibrant commercial sector is needed to advance these defense technologies and to ensure robust U.S. cybersecurity. Given Gen. Alexander’s wide-ranging national security knowledge and experience, we look forward to hearing his perspectives on these matters as the keynote presenter at SIA’s 40th Anniversary Award Dinner.”

Alexander is a four-star general with an impressive 40-year military career. His tenure as NSA Director (2005-2014) was longer than any other director. While serving in that role, Alexander was appointed by Congress to be the first Commander to lead the U.S. Cyber Command. He held this role from 2010-2014, establishing and defining how our nation is protected against cyber attacks. Serving as a member of the President’s Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity, Alexander developed key recommendations to create a defensible national cyber architecture to protect national security by promoting rapid innovation and close public-private collaboration while preserving privacy and civil liberties.

The SIA Award Dinner also will feature the presentation of the semiconductor industry’s highest honor, the Robert N. Noyce Award, to former Micron CEO Mark Durcan. The Noyce Award is named in honor of semiconductor industry pioneer Robert N. Noyce, co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel.

IC Insights has revised its outlook and analysis of the IC industry and presented its new findings in the Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2017, which originally was published in January 2017.  Entering the second half of the year, it is clear the IC industry is on course for a much stronger upturn than was initially forecast in January.  IC Insights now expects the IC market to increase 16% in 2017 due to exceptional growth in the DRAM and NAND flash memory markets. The DRAM market is now forecast to grow 55% and the NAND flash market is now expected to rise 35% this year—in both cases, almost entirely due to fast-rising prices rather than unit growth.  Excluding these two markets, the overall IC market growth is forecast to show just 6% year-over-year growth (Figure 1).  The expected 16% increase would be the first double-digit gain for the IC market since it expanded by 33% in 2010—the recession-recovery year—and the fifth double-digit increase for the IC market since 2000.

ic insights

As seen in the figure, the DRAM market has had a notable impact on total IC market growth in recent years. With market surges of 32% and 34% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, the DRAM market alone boosted the worldwide IC market growth rate by three percentage points in 2013 and four percentage points in 2014.

At $64.2 billion, the DRAM market is forecast to be by far the largest single product category in the IC industry in 2017, exceeding the expected second-ranked MPU market for standard PCs and servers ($47.1 billion) by $17.1 billion this year.

Overall, IC Insights’ global economic outlook remains on course with initial projections covered in The McClean Report. Electronic system production, capital spending as a percent of sales, and IC wafer capacity added were unchanged from the original outlook.  However, other factors and conditions that contribute to the forecast were upgraded slightly in the Mid-Year Update. For example, the worldwide GDP forecast was upgraded by 0.1 point to 2.7% for 2017, marginally ahead of what is considered to be the global recession threshold of 2.5% growth.  IC Insights believes that through the forecast period, annual IC market growth rates will closely track with the performance of worldwide GDP growth.

Following a fairly strong first half of growth, China’s 2017 GDP was raised to 6.8% for 2017 from the original forecast of 6.3%.  Also, IC Insights upgraded its U.S GDP forecast to 2.1% in the Mid-Year Updatefrom 2.0% in January. While the U.S. economy is far from perfect, it is currently one of the most significant positive driving forces in the worldwide economy.  A falling unemployment rate, PMI figures of 57.0 and 55.8 in the first and second quarters of this year, and relatively low oil prices should help the U.S. economy sustain its modest growth in the second half of this year. Growth rates for IC unit shipments, IC average selling price, and semiconductor capital spending were also revised slightly higher.

Additional details and commentary regarding the updated IC forecasts for the 2017-2021 timeperiod are covered in IC Insights’ Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2017.