Category Archives: Semiconductors

Annual semiconductor unit shipments (integrated circuits and opto-sensor-discretes, or O-S-D, devices) are expected to grow 9% in 2018 and top one trillion units for the first time, based on data presented in the new, 2018 edition of IC Insights’ McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (Figure 1).  For 2018, semiconductor unit shipments are forecast to climb to 1,075.1 billion, which equates to 9% growth for the year.  Starting in 1978 with 32.6 billion units and going through 2018, the compound annual growth rate for semiconductor units is forecast to be 9.1%, a solid growth figure over the 40 year span.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Over the span of just four years (2004-2007), semiconductor shipments broke through the 400-, 500-, and 600-billion unit levels before the global financial meltdown caused a big decline in semiconductor unit shipments in 2008 and 2009.  Unit growth rebounded sharply with 25% growth in 2010 and displayed another strong increase in 2017 (14% growth) to climb past the 900-billion level.

The largest annual increase in semiconductor unit growth during the timespan shown was 34% in 1984, and the biggest decline was 19% in 2001 following the dot-com bust.  The global financial meltdown and ensuing recession caused semiconductor shipments to fall in both 2008 and 2009; the only time that the industry experienced consecutive years in which unit shipments declined.  The 25% increase in 2010 was the second-highest growth rate across the time span.

The percentage split of total semiconductor shipments is forecast to remain weighted toward O-S-D devices.  In 2018, O-S-D devices are forecast to account for 70% of total semiconductor units compared to 30% for ICs.  Thirty-eight years ago in 1980, O-S-D devices accounted for 78% of semiconductor units and ICs represented 22% (Figure 2).

Figure 2

Figure 2

Semiconductor products forecast to have the strongest unit growth rates in 2018 are those that are essential building-block components in smartphones, automotive electronics systems, and within systems that are helping to build out of Internet of Things.  Some of the fast-growing IC unit categories for 2018 include Industrial/Other—Application-Specific Analog (26% increase); Consumer—Special Purpose Logic (22% growth); Industrial/Other—Special Purpose Logic, (22%); 32-bit MCUs (21%); Wireless Communication—Application-Specific Analog (18%); and Auto—Application-Specific Analog (17%). Among O-S-D devices, CCDs and CMOS image sensors, laser transmitters, and every type of sensor product (magnetic, acceleration and yaw, pressure, and other sensors) are expected to enjoy double-digit unit growth this year.

By Jay Chittooran, Manager, Public Policy, SEMI

International trade is one of the best tools to spur growth and create high-skill and high-paying jobs. Over 40 million American jobs rely on trade, and this is particularly true in the semiconductor supply chain. Over the past three decades, the semiconductor industry has averaged nearly double-digit growth rates in revenue and, by 2030, the semiconductor supply chain is forecast to reach $1 trillion. Trade paves the way for this growth.

Unfortunately, despite its importance to the industry, trade has been transformed from an economic issue into a political one, raising many new trade challenges to companies throughout the semiconductor industry.

GHz-ChinaChina’s investments in the industry will continue to anchor the country as a major force in the semiconductor supply chain. China’s outsized spending has spawned concern among other countries about the implications of these investments. According to SEMI’s World Fab Forecast, 20 fabs are being built in China – and construction on 14 more is rumored to begin in the near term – compared to the 10 fabs under construction in the rest of the world. China is clearly outpacing the pack.

The Trump Administration has levied intense criticism of China, citing unfair trade practices, especially related to intellectual property issues. The U.S. Trade Representative has launched a Section 301 investigation into whether China’s practice of forced technology transfer has discriminated against U.S. consumers. Even as the probe unfolds, expectations are growing that the United States will take action against China, raising fears of not only possible retaliation in time but rising animosity between two trading partners that rely deeply on each other.

A number of other open investigations also cloud the future. The Administration launched two separate Section 232 investigations into steel and aluminum industry practices by China, claiming Chinese overproduction of both items are a threat to national security. The findings from these investigations will be submitted to the President, who, in the coming weeks, will decide an appropriate response, which could include imposing tariffs and quotas.

Another high priority area is Korea. While U.S. threats to withdraw from the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) reached a fever pitch in August, rhetoric has since tempered. Informal discussions between the countries on how best to amend the trade deal are ongoing. The number of KORUS implementation issues aside, continued engagement with Korea – instead of scrapping a comprehensive, bilateral trade deal – will be critically important for the industry.

Lastly, negotiations to modernize the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will continue this year. The United States wants to conclude talks by the end of March, but with the deadline fast approaching and the promise of resolution waning, tensions are running high. Notably, the outcome of the NAFTA talks will inform and set the tone for other trade action.

What’s more, a number of other actions on trade will take place this year. As we wrote recently, Congress has moved to reform the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a government body designed to review sales and transfer of ownership of U.S. companies to foreign entities. Efforts have also started to revise the export control regime – a key component to improving global market access and making international trade more equitable.

SEMI will continue its work on behalf of its members around the globe to open up new markets and lessen the burden of regulations on cross-border trade and commerce. In addition, SEMI will continue to educate policymakers on the critical importance of unobstructed trade in continuing to push the rapid advance of semiconductors and the emerging technologies they enable into the future. If you are interested in more information on trade, or how to be involved in SEMI’s public policy program, please contact Jay Chittooran, Manager, Public Policy, at [email protected].

Year End Wow!


January 24, 2018

By Walt Custer, Custer Consulting Group

Strong year-end 2017 electronic equipment sales

2017 ended on a high note from an end market perspective thanks to:

  • Geographically broad economic strength and new products
  • Record high December electronic equipment production and shipments in China/Taiwan
  • Peak electronic equipment production in the Eurozone in November
  • A 4Q upturn in U.S. bookings and shipments of electronic equipment

Custer1-World-Electronic-Equipment-Monthly-Shipments

Based upon preliminary data, mobile phones including the Apple iPhone X were major contributors to the fourth-quarter 2017 strength in Asia/Pacific. Foxconn registered all-time record sales in December.

By comparison, personal computer sales were flat when adjusted for normal seasonality.

Early information indicates that December global equipment revenues were up almost 24 percent over December 2016 and up 3 percent sequentially over November 2017.

Resilient semiconductor supply chain

Semiconductors and SEMI equipment have a strong growth in this current business cycle (Chart 2), mainly due to strong memory demand and price increases for chips, and also robust capital equipment spending to increase memory chip capacity.

Custer2-World-Semiconductor-SEMI-Equipement-Shipments

 

By November this sales growth appeared to be plateauing (but at record levels).

On a 3/12 basis (Chart 3) world growth was:

Semiconductors +21.5% November
SEMI equipment +28.4% November
Taiwan Chip Foundries +6.1% December
Electronic Equipment +4.9% September

Custer3-Supply-Chain-Dynamics
Despite a likely moderation of the current SEMI equipment and chip growth rates, this current business cycle has been robust and prolonged. End market electronic equipment demand remains strong and new volume markets are emerging. However SEMI equipment and semiconductor sales are much more volatile than electronic equipment, so the current landscape could change quickly.

Looking forward

The global PMI is an excellent short-term leading indicator. It was at an all-time record high in December, pointing to an unseasonably strong first quarter of 2018. Keep watching the business cycles for any signs of abrupt change. Currently we are on a high plateau but conditions could change quickly.

Custer4-Purchasing-Managers-Index

Originally published on the SEMI blog.

SiFive, the provider of commercial RISC-V processor IP, today announced the appointment of Sunil Shenoy as vice president of hardware engineering. The news follows SiFive’s momentous expansion last quarter with its strategic partnerships, launch of the first Linux-capable RISC-V core and growth of the DesignShare program.

“SiFive is leading the disruption of the semiconductor industry with effective implementation of the RISC-V instruction set architecture,” said Shenoy. “I’m thrilled to be a part of this revolution, leading the charge on a new architecture and changing the way the industry does hardware design.”

Shenoy brings more than 30 years of technology experience to SiFive, holding 16 patents in microprocessor design, and working on or leading notable projects including the Intel PentiumTM 4 generation of microprocessors, highly integrated multi-core Intel XeonTM microprocessors for datacenter and enterprise servers,and the family of massively parallel Intel Xeon PhiTM microprocessors. During his time at Intel, Shenoy led silicon development teams consisting of several thousand engineers across the world, helping to bring products successfully to market. He also drove collaborative programs with major EDA vendors. Sunil was promoted to Corporate VP at Intel in 2010. In 2013 he joined the Intel management committee reporting to the CEO.

“We’re excited to bring in Sunil to help SiFive support the growth of RISC-V and meet rising demands of the industry,” said Naveed Sherwani, SiFive CEO. “His experience in leading large processor design teams that generated multiple market-leading products will help us advance SiFive’s Core IP and processors for expanding market segments, and expand our position in the marketplace.”

Sunil has a master’s degree in computer engineering from Syracuse University, a master’s degree in business administration from University of Oregon and recently has completed extensive graduate studies in computer science.

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $2.39 billion in billings worldwide in December 2017 (three-month average basis), according to the November Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Billings Report published today by SEMI.  The billings figure is 16.3 percent higher than the final November 2017 level of $2.05 billion, and is 27.7 percent higher than the December 2016 billings level of $1.87 billion.

“December 2017 monthly billings for North American equipment manufacturers ended the year at the highest levels in this record-breaking year,” said Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI. “For 2017, total billings for North American equipment companies soared over 40 percent compared to 2016.”

The SEMI Billings report uses three-month moving averages of worldwide billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Billings
(3-mo. avg)
Year-Over-Year
July 2017
$2,269.7
32.9%
August 2017
$2,181.8
27.7%
September 2017
$2,054.8
37.6%
October 2017
$2,019.3
23.9%
November 2017 (final)
$2,052.3
27.2%
December 2017 (prelim)
$2,387.8
27.7%

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org), January 2018

SEMI publishes a monthly North American Billings report and issues the Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) report in collaboration with the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ). The WWSEMS report currently reports billings by 24 equipment segments and by seven end market regions. SEMI also has a long history of tracking semiconductor industry fab investments in detail on a company-by-company and fab-by-fab basis in its World Fab Forecast and SEMI FabView databases.

 

Applied Materials, Inc. today announced the appointment of Scott A. McGregor to serve on its Board of Directors.

“Scott is an outstanding leader in the global semiconductor industry and brings deep management experience as a long-serving chief executive,” said Tom Iannotti, chairman of the board of Applied Materials. “Applied is working at the foundation of major technology trends with profound implications for the way semiconductors are made, and Scott’s industry experience makes him an excellent addition to our board of directors team.”

Mr. McGregor served as president and chief executive officer and as a member of the board of directors of Broadcom Corporation from 2005 until the company was acquired by Avago Technologies Limited in 2016. He joined Broadcom from Philips Semiconductors (now NXP Semiconductors), where he was president and chief executive officer. He previously served in a range of senior management positions at Santa Cruz Operation Inc., Digital Equipment Corporation (now part of HP), Xerox PARC and Microsoft, where he was the architect and development team leader for Windows 1.0. Mr. McGregor currently serves as a member of the board of directors of Equifax Inc. He previously served as a member of the boards of directors of Ingram Micro Inc. and Xactly Corporation.

Intermolecular, Inc. (NASDAQ: IMI), the trusted partner for advanced materials innovation and SITRI, the innovation center for accelerating the development and commercialization of “More than Moore” (MtM) technologies, today announced they have expanded their strategic alliance to address the growing need for advanced new memory technologies in the China market. As part of this alliance, IMI has begun delivering critical unit films to SITRI and the two companies will work together with an end goal of producing a working memory device that their joint customers can use to drive future memories and IoT innovations forward.

There is a major need in the industry today for next-generation memory technologies that can deliver the performance, density, low power and small form factors needed for future memories and IoT devices. Current technologies face inherent limitations in meeting these requirements, making it more important to find new materials that can solve these challenges. By combining IMI’s high-throughput experimentation platform with SITRI’s expertise and strong ecosystem, the two companies can rapidly ease materials screening to enable advanced memory technologies to power the future.

“IMI has extensive experience working with memory technologies, including the thin film and stacks required to manufacture these devices,” said Chris Kramer, CEO of Intermolecular.   “This expertise, combined with SITRI’s expansive services, resources and industrial ecosystem, will be ideal for accelerating the development of an advanced memory technology.”

“We see tremendous opportunity for a new memory technology in the China market, but the process of selecting, testing and commercializing the right materials to deliver this can be costly and very time consuming,” said Charles Yang, president of SITRI. “Intermolecular already has this experience and proven methodology, which will help us greatly speed this process and provide our customers with new innovations in memory.”

With an extensive patent portfolio focused on memory technology, Intermolecular will provide SITRI with the expertise and knowledge base to produce a working memory device at a SITRI fab, which can later be transferred to their joint customers. Intermolecular will gain access to test vehicles and device capability through the use of SITRI’s MtM fab and SITRI will leverage Intermolecular’s new materials expertise in memory to perform rapid screening to optimize critical material selections.

Worldwide semiconductor revenue is forecast to total $451 billion in 2018, an increase of 7.5 percent from $419 billion in 2017, according to Gartner, Inc. This represents a near doubling of Gartner’s previous estimate of 4 percent growth for 2018.

“Favorable market conditions for memory sectors that gained momentum in the second half of 2016 prevailed through 2017 and look set to continue in 2018, providing a significant boost to semiconductor revenue,” said Ben Lee, principal research analyst at Gartner. “Gartner has increased the outlook for 2018 by $23.6 billion compared with the previous forecast, of which the memory market accounts for $19.5 billion. Price increases for both DRAM and NAND flash memory are raising the outlook for the overall semiconductor market.”

However, these price increases will put pressure on margins for system vendors of key semiconductor demand drivers, including smartphones, PCs and servers. Gartner predicts that component shortages, a rising bill of materials (BOM) and the resulting prospect of having to raise average selling prices (ASPs) will create a volatile market through 2018.

Despite the upward revision for 2018, the quarterly growth profile for 2018 is expected to fall back to a more normal pattern with a mid-single-digit sequential decline in the first quarter of the year, followed by a recovery and buildup in both the second and third quarters of 2018, and a slight decline in the fourth quarter.

On January 3, a security vulnerability that spans all microprocessor vendors was revealed, impacting nearly all types of personal and data center computing devices. While this is an obscure security vulnerability that is difficult to achieve, the potential of a high-impact security issue cannot be ignored and must be mitigated.

“The current mitigation solution is via firmware and software updates, and has a potential processor performance impact. This may result in an increased demand for high-performance data center processors in the short term, but Gartner expects that in the longer term, microprocessor architectures will be redesigned, reducing the performance impact of the software mitigations and limiting the long-term forecast impact,” said Alan Priestley, research director at Gartner.

Taking the memory sectors out of the equation, the semiconductor market is forecast to grow 4.6 percent in 2018 (compared with 9.4 percent in 2017) with field-programmable gate array (FPGA), optoelectronics, application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) and nonoptical sensors leading the semiconductor device categories.

The other significant device category driving the 2018 forecast higher is application-specific standard products (ASSPs). The predicted growth in ASSPs was influenced by an improved outlook for graphics cards used in gaming PCs and high-performance computing applications, a broad increase in automotive content and a stronger wired communications forecast.

The mixed fortunes of semiconductor vendors in recent years serves as a reminder of the fickleness of the memory market,” said Mr. Lee. “After growing by 22.2 percent in 2017, worldwide semiconductor revenue will revert back to single-figure growth in 2018 before a correction in the memory market results in revenue declining slightly in 2019.”

One of the big challenges in computer architecture is integrating storage, memory and processing in one unit. This would make computers faster and more energy efficient. University of Groningen physicists have taken a big step towards this goal by combining a niobium doped strontium titanate (SrTiO3) semiconductor with ferromagnetic cobalt. At the interface, this creates a spin-memristor with storage abilities, paving the way for neuromorphic computing architectures. The results were published on 22 January in Scientific Reports.

The device developed by the physicists combines the memristor effect of semiconductors with a spin-based phenomenon called tunnelling anisotropic magnetoresistance (TAMR) and works at room temperature. The SrTiO3 semiconductor has a non-volatile variable resistance when interfaced with cobalt: an electric field can be used to change it from low to high resistance and back. This is known as the electroresistance effect.

Tunability

Furthermore, when a magnetic field was applied across the same interface, in and out of the plane of the cobalt, this showed a tunablity of the TAMR spin voltage by 1.2 mV. This coexistence of both a large change in the value of TAMR and electroresistance across the same device at room temperature has not previously been demonstrated in other material systems.

‘This means we can store additional information in a non-volatile way in the memristor, thus creating a very simple and elegant integrated spin-memristor device that operates at room temperature’, explains Professor of Spintronics of Functional Materials Tamalika Banerjee. She works at the Zernike Institute for Advanced Materials at the University of Groningen. So far, attempts to combine spin-based storage, memory and computing have been hampered by a complex architecture in addition to other factors.

Brain

The key to the success of the Banerjee group device is the interface between cobalt and the semiconductor. ‘We have shown that a one-nanometre thick insulating layer of aluminium oxide makes the TAMR effect disappear’, says Banerjee. It took quite some work to engineer the interface. They did so by adjusting the niobium doping of the semiconductor and thus the potential landscape at the interface. The same coexistence can’t be realized with silicon as a semiconductor: ‘You need the heavy atoms in SrTiO3 for the spin orbit coupling at the interface that is responsible for the large TAMR effect at room temperature.’

These devices could be used in a brain-like computer architecture. They would act like the synapses that connect the neurons. The synapse responds to an external stimulus, but this response also depends on the synapse’s memory of previous stimuli. ‘We are now considering how to create a bio-inspired computer architecture based on our discovery.’ Such a system would move away from the classical Von Neumann architecture. The big advantage is that it is expected to use less energy and thus produce less heat. ‘This will be useful for the “Internet of Things”, where connecting different devices and networks generates unsustainable amounts of heat.’

Energy efficiency

The physics of what exactly happens at the interface of cobalt and the strontium semiconductor is complicated, and more work needs to be done to understand this. Banerjee: ‘Once we understand it better, we will be able to improve the performance of the system. We are currently working on that. But it works well as it is, so we are also thinking of building a more complex system with such spin-memristors to test actual algorithms for specific cognition capabilities of the human brain.’ Banerjee’s device is relatively simple. Scaling it up to a full computing architecture is the next big step.

How to integrate these devices in a parallel computing architecture that mimics the working of the brain is a question that fascinates Banerjee. ‘Our brain is a fantastic computer, in the sense that it can process vast amounts of information in parallel with an energy efficiency that is far superior to that of a supercomputer.’ Banerjee’s team’s findings could lead to new architectures for brain-inspired computing.

SEMI today announced that SEMI Europe’s Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS Europe), coming on the heels of the highly successful ISS 2018 in the U.S., will highlight STEM education and a talent pipeline, critical issues to electronics manufacturing executives sharpening their competitive edge in the global supply chain. Day two of the flagship business event – March 4-6 in Dublin, Ireland – will feature two experts focusing on how companies can “Gain, Train and Retain World-Class Talent.”

Ann-Charlotte Johannesson, CEO, CEI-Europe AB, will examine strategies to attract, retain and develop highly skilled workers in the semiconductor industry as an essential component of Europe´s global competitiveness in her presentation “Smart Training for Smarter Engineers – The Way of Ensuring the Competitive Advantage for the Global European Industry.”

Cheryl Miller, Founder/Executive Director, Digital Leadership Institute, will present an overview of education and digital skills, innovation, entrepreneurship and the workplace of the future. The Digital Leadership Institute, a Brussels-based, international NGO, is a recognised world leader in promoting greater participation of girls and women in strategic, innovative ESTEAM (Entrepreneurship & Arts powered by STEM).

“A skilled workforce is not only a keystone to the success of the global supply chain but a source of competitive advantage, making STEM education and a strong talent pipeline critical focus areas for the industry,” said Laith Altimime, president, SEMI Europe. “SEMI member companies feel the pinch, with thousands of open positions that are critical to sustaining the pace of innovation and growth. To address the talent shortfall, SEMI Europe this year launched a workforce development and diversity initiative.”

Other ISS Europe 2018 highlights include the panel discussion “Critical Strategies to Grow Europe in the Global Supply Chain,” the opening networking reception, a gala dinner, and the 2017 European Award ceremony.