Category Archives: Touch Technologies

January 22, 2013 – Reports are circling around Apple’s supply chain of a potential shift in the company’s display strategy for its future iPhones and iPads — moving back to LCDs and away from touch panels — but a drastic realignment of its supply chain is probably not likely, observes DisplaySearch.

Calvin Hsieh, senior analyst at DisplaySearch, cites a report from China that Innolux has delivered "touch on display" samples for the iPhone, another China report that Innolux and AU Optronics have provided "one-glass solution" (OGS) samples for the iPad Mini, and his firm’s own analysis that the iPhone 5 uses in-cell touch technology but the iPad mini uses a glass/film dual ITO (GF2, or DITO) structure. With both those processes struggling to attain good yields, could Apple end up changing its display technology adoption midstream?

TOD is a proprietary on-cell touch technology developed by Innolux in which the sensor is located on the upper glass (the color filter substrate) beneath the top polarizer. On-cell touch combines both LCD and touch so it must meet Apple’s LCD display requirements; Hsieh notes, adding that Innolux accounted for less than 10% of iPhone 4 display shipments (3.5-in, 960×640). "If Apple were to adopt TOD, it would very likely request that Innolux share its technology, structure or even patents with Apple’s other LCD suppliers in order to ensure adequate supply," he writes," and Apple also probably would want to take over the controller IC and algorithm from any Innolux partners (e.g. Synaptics). Apple already owns DITO patents, he adds.

The OGS display technology is an even more complex problem, Hsieh points out. OGS integrates the touch ITO sensor circuits into the cover glass, via two possible methods: a piece type such as "touch on lens" (TOL) or a sheet type, each accomplished with a different process. Either way the X-Y sensor patterns are on the same side of the substrate, so it’s called a "SITO" structure or "G2." Touch panel maker TPK owns patents for the piece-type OGS method, and claim they have key SITO patents as well and are suing Nokia and Chinese panel maker O-film, Hsieh notes; whether the aforementioned Innolux-AUO partnership could produce the technology given the TPK patents is unclear, he says.

There’s more to Apple use of OGS display if it chooses that route. Sheet-type OGS has a compressive cover-glass strength of 500-6600 Mpa; Corning’s IOX-FS and Gorilla glass have 600-700 Mpa for smartphone sizes and cannot be used in sheet type, Hsieh says. Piece type has the higher CS value but are difficult to mask-stamp and align under lithography, and throughput may be low.

Among iPhone 5 panel suppliers only LG Display offers everything from in-cell touch LCD to cover glass lamination (consigned by Apple), Hsieh notes. Other in-cell touch LCD makers Japan Display and Sharp rely on partners for the cover glass. If Innolux and AUO continue with their OGS partnership, they have a choice:

  • An integrated offering of LCD, OGS sheet patterning (cover glass with SITO sensor), and lamination let Apple specify the IOX-FS glass sheet with compressive strength of Gorilla 1; "In this scenario, LG Display will never give up and must be one of the suppliers," he notes.

  • Integrate the LCD, OGS piece-type sensor patterning, and lamination, using consigned cover glass pieces from other finishers (e.g. Lens One). The challenge here is expanding tools, throughput, and yield for piece-type patterning, to be acceptable for the iPhone’s >100M unit base.

All that is somewhat speculation, though, because long-term Apple touch supplier TPK already "has excellent OGS sheet and piece-type technology, and high lamination yield rates," and is unlikely to simply hand over that business to new entrants. "Although AUO and Innolux have advantages as LCD makers and can shorten the supply chain by producing LCD and touch at the same time, TPK has strength in OGS integration from sensor patterning, cover glass finishing (for sheet type), to module lamination," Hsieh writes. "Thus, there is a good chance that TPK will once again be a key touch supplier to Apple if it decides to change touch structures."

January 11, 2012 – The annual Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas has become a mecca for all things electronic and digital, from useful to cool to just plain bizarre. Among the technologies at the confluence of cool and useful were two things that aim to rethink the PC model. (And for the cool/bizarre side of the CES spectrum, behold eatART’s rideable robot Mondo Spider.)

This year’s CES emphasized "designs that defied or pushed the limits of convention," with two clear examples, points out DisplaySearch’s Richard Shim: size-defying "phablets," and even more size-defying "table PCs."

The phablet — a combination of phone and tablet — got its start with Samsung’s Galaxy Note, which offered an expanded 5-in. OLED screen; the Galaxy Note II was even bigger at 5.5-in. At this year’s CES, the phablet took another screen-size step up thanks to China’s Huawei, which unveiled its Ascend Mate ,which has a 6.1-in. 1280 × 720 screen. (Huawei also touted its Ascend D2 with a 5-in., 1920 × 1080 display.) The Ascend D2 will be available in China later this month, followed by the Ascend Mate in February.

The "table PC," meanwhile, is essentially a supersized tablet, with the screensize of a large computer monitor. Sony’s Vaio Tap 20 (20-in. display) is now joined by Lenovo’s IdeaCentre Horizon with a 27-in. resistive touch-based display, and the company has a prototype 39-in. version planned for later this summer. Each of these "table PCs" can stand upright like an all-in-one desktop PC, but also laid down flat, Shim notes.

"Both the phablet and the table PC categories represent the extreme end of a form factor trend that we expect to see throughout 2013," Shim explains. "The traditional lines that have been used to define, categorize, and track devices are expected to only become more difficult to maintain," and suppliers will increasingly tinker with formfactors to find what resonates with consumers. (In his own CES research note, Barclays analyst CJ Muse acknowledged the interest shown in phablets, and likely reverberations they should cause among suppliers, along with "large screen touch, Next Gen TVs, and the Internet of everything.") Shim doesn’t expect these design tinkerings will greatly impact shipment trends in the near-term (DisplaySearch still sees notebook PC shipments dipping 5% Y/Y in 2013), but "we anticipate that brands can score image points and credibility with consumers for willing to be bold with design. That has translated to good fortune for Apple so it should not be underestimated."

(photos via DisplaySearch; credit photo #1 to Lori Grunin/CNet)

January 7, 2012 – As the annual Consumer Electronics Show and hordes of techie enthusiasts descends over Las Vegas this week, one display technology — 4K × 2K — is expected to grab most of the attention, says NPD DisplaySearch.

4K LCD TV shipments will exceed OLED TV shipments through 2015, the firm says, due to both delays by OLED TV makers and increased promotion of 4K LCD TVs. Many Chinese brands are currently launching their own products domestically. OLED TVs should start hitting the market in 2013, but with low volumes and high prices. Note that 4K technology can be applied to OLED TVs as well, and eventually will be introduced for some premium TV segments, the firm points out.

"The global TV market—and North America in particular—are experiencing either slow or negative growth in 2012, and brands are eager to demonstrate new technologies that might create a spike in demand," stated Paul Gagnon, Director for Global TV Research at NPD DisplaySearch. Gagnon added, “OLED TV was prominently featured during the previous two CES shows as the next-generation TV display technology, but the lack of market launch so far has caused several set makers to start emphasizing 4K×2K resolution TVs for premium market segments."

Forecast for OLED TV and 4K LCD TV. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch)

Overall TV demand is expected to fall in 2012, as consumers worldwide grapple with tough economic conditions and TV prices fall at only marginal rates. DisplaySearch estimates LCD TV shipments in 2012 were 205 million, slightly lower than in 2011, while plasma TV shipments sunk 24% to 13 million. The firm sees 2013 initially taking shape as a flat market due to persistent economic uncertainty, but ultimately smoothing into gradual growth as conditions improve and as price declines in the TV market accelerate.


TV shipment growth by technology. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch)

January 3, 2012 – Active matrix OLED (AMOLED) displays will continue to encroach upon LCD technology through small and medium-sized (9-in. and smaller) displays used in mobile phones, according to recent analysis by NPD DisplaySearch.

Total OLED display shipments are expected to reach 191 million in 2012, accounting for 8.4% of total small/medium displays. AMOLEDs will make up 6% all by themselves, having driven total OLED penetration into this market segment since 2010 and the launch of Samsung’s Galaxy S phone, according to Yoonsung Chung, director, large-area displays & FPD materials for NPD DisplaySearch. Mobile phones continue to drive the OLED adoption, with mobile phone applications expected to make up 69% of the small/medium OLED market in 2012 and growing to 83% in 2015.

OLED penetration in small and medium display shipments by technology. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch)

Mass adoption of AMOLED technology, though, faces hurdles due to the higher cost and technical difficulty of manufacturing — successful entry takes five years on average, according to the firm. "Prior to the start of mass production of AMOLED displays for mobile phones, only passive-matrix OLED (PMOLED) displays were available, mostly used in applications such as mobile phone sub-displays, automobile displays, and some industrial and niche applications," Chung stated.

Samsung produces nearly all AMOLED displays today, but more players will be needed to continue to push the technology’s adoption — and indeed new panel makers will emerge in 2013 from Taiwan and China, Chung forecasts. He also predicts demand for "OLED applications for smartphones, amusement devices, digital still cameras, and home appliances."

Small/medium OLED display shipments by application. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch)

December 12, 2012 – Increased tablet adoption, with Apple’s continued dominance and emergence by new players (see Google, Microsoft) are changing the mobile PC competitive landscape — and supply-chain partners are having to rethink their strategies to stay atop the game.

Competitive conflicts are now a big concern, points out Jeff Lin, value chain analyst at NPD DisplaySearch; he cites Samsung Display planning to reduce its share in Apple and increase support to captive brands and other external customers, including Amazon and Barnes & Noble. New competitors in the market will seek to emphasize touch notebooks and ultraslim devices in 2013, while entrenched mobile PC competitors (Lin points to HP, Lenovo, Samsung, and Acer) need solid agreements with their own OEMs. Their collective demands will strain supply-chain logistics, from panels to OEMs, he notes.

“With 2013 business planning well underway, product portfolios, sales strategies, and sourcing plans for mobile PC brands will certainly impact the supply chain,” Lin noted. Top PC brands will see only 2% annual growth in 2012 for notebook PCs, and a -28% plunge in mini-notebook PCs — but tablet PC growth chugs on at 75%. In 2013, however, these PC companies are setting their sights higher, planning 16% Y/Y shipment increases on average for notebook PCs, while tablet PC growth "may be less impressive than in 2012,” he says.

LG Display was the top supplier of mobile PC panels, with more than a third of its shipments going to Apple. Still the clear leader in mobile PCs (defined as notebooks, tablets, and ultraslim PCs), Apple accounted for more than 84% of total tablet PC shipments in 2Q12 (primarily made by Foxconn). HP was second, with Quanta covering about 33% of its production. Foxconn led in all PC OEM production in 2Q12 with >85% of its volume from Apple’s new 9.7-in. iPad and iPad 2. (Quanta started making Google’s Nexus 7-in. tablet PC in 2Q12.)

OEM shipments to mobile PC customers, in millions. (Source: DisplaySearch)

What will 100M iPads do to the tablet supply chain?

Speaking of Apple, panel makers including Samsung, LG Display, Sharp, and Innolux are expected to ship 70M iPad panels (9.7-in.) in 2012; about a third of them (23M) for iPad 2 XGA panels and the rest (47M) the new iPad QXGA panels that use both a-Si and oxide TFT technologies. Strong sales of the legacy iPad model continue, though, so Apple and its panel makers are having to adjust their panel production plans.

Die-hard techies love their favorite devices, none more so than Apple fans. The iPad mini, which was recently voted one of the hottest consumer products of 2012 in Japan, immediately faced supply shortages for its 7.85-in. XGA display supplied by AUO and LG Display. Apple had originally planned to sell 6M units in 2012; only 1.6M panels shipped in 3Q12, but the company wants panel makers to ship another 12M to meet demand.

This is even harder than it sounds. The iPad panels are known to be complex and difficult to make, notes DisplaySearch’s David Hsieh. Not only must they have high resolution and low-power consumption, but their wide viewing angle and high color saturation require additional photomask steps. "Standard a-Si TFT backplanes require 4 or 5 photomask steps, but the iPad and iPad mini panels require 6 to 7," notes Hsieh. "And for panel makers with limited experience in IPS [in-plane switching] or FFS production, as many as 8 mask steps may be used. Increased mask steps means longer production times and lower yield rates."

If Apple’s expectations for a substantially bigger 2013 come true, it might have to rethink its supply chain even further. Answering the strong demand for the iPad mini, the company is targeting 100M iPad shipments in 2013 — half of those for the mini, 40M for the new iPad, and 10M of the iPad 2 model. (DisplaySearch projects over 170M total tablet PC shipments in 2013, which would give Apple continued domination at 60% share.) But there’s a downside, notes Hsieh: "If the iPad mini volume is anything near 50 million units, Apple will need to find other panel suppliers in addition to AUO and LG Display, just as it always has three suppliers for the iPad panels," he writes. Likely candidates include Century (China), Innolux (Taiwan), and Panasonic LCD (Japan), all of whom are experienced in IPS technologies. Apple must also manage its iPad panel supplies in case it ends up parting ways with longtime partner/competitor Samsung.

November 30, 2012 – With the advent of two new touch sensor technologies, more than 7.5% of the mobile phone market will use "in-cell touch" in 2012 and tablet PCs will see a 5% shipment share of "DITO film structure" technology, reports NPD DisplaySearch. In-cell touch’s market share is estimated to grow to 16.7% by 2018.

Apple’s iPhone 5 uses in-cell touch technology, while the iPad mini features a DITO film structure.

"These two new projected capacitive touch sensor structures enabled Apple to reduce the thickness and weight of the iPhone 5 and iPad mini," said Calvin Hsieh, research director, NPD DisplaySearch. "These factors contribute to the consumer demand for these products, but manufacturing the new sensors has proven problematic."

Apple sources the 4-in. 1136 × 640 (326 ppi) in-cell touch LCD from LG Display, Japan Display Inc., and Sharp under a license to use Apple’s in-cell touch patents, and these panel makers are forbidden to sell LCD panels of any size using Apple’s in-cell touch patents to other companies. Limited production, along with the challenges in producing the new sensors with strict performance requirements, have resulted in poor yield rates (70%-80% or less) in LCD panel manufacturing and a higher price for in-cell touch.

The iPad mini represents the first tablet PC display to incorporate a DITO film touch sensor, which is lighter and thinner than DITO glass (0.125 mm vs. 0.4 mm). However, there are challenges with production of the sensor on film and lamination since it is easily broken when stretched. Also, alignment of film sensors is more difficult than with rigid glass, especially for larger sizes. These challenges have resulted in low production yield rates, which have been a contributor to the higher entry price of $329 for the iPad mini. Other less-expensive tablet PCs use glass sensors or a one-glass solution with optical bonding.

"In-cell touch and DITO film offer some clear advantages, but at the expense of lower yield rates and higher costs — at least in the early stages of production," added Hsieh. "Apple has concluded that the benefits of thinner, lighter devices will be highly valued by consumers."

NPD DisplaySearch’s 2012 Touch Panel Market Analysis offers a comprehensive breakdown of touch panel technologies and their market forecasts through 2018.

Touch technology shipments by category in mobile phones. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch)

November 29, 2012 – The market for materials used in printed electronics manufacturing will nearly double over the next five years as new materials are brought forth that are printing process-compatible and are sufficiently low-cost to support low-cost volume production of printed electronic devices, according to a Lux Research report.

"Much of the promise of printed electronics lies in the potential to manufacture devices through low-cost, high-throughput manufacturing," said Jonathan Melnick, Lux Research analyst and lead author of the report, "Inking Money: The prospects for materials in printed electronics." To do that, though, will require creation and implementation of various materials that offer good enough performance and are compatible with printing processes — without becoming too costly themselves."

Examining a range of materials with a breadth of complexity, performance, and cost — focusing on conductive inks and pastes, new transparent conductive films, and semiconductor inks — Lux offers the following observations:

  • Silver thrives; alternatives struggle. The market for opaque conductive inks alone will grow to $2.4 billion in 2017, from $1.4 billion in 2012, with medical and RFID among the fastest-growing segments. However, silver paste will still dominate and other materials will only find traction in solar applications.

  • Rapid smartphone adoption offers a bonanza. Transparent conductive films (TCF) to replace indium tin oxide (ITO) widely used in touchscreens will grow to $705 million, of which $112 million will come from the inks. Most of that will be driven by smartphone touchscreens, with tablets a distant second — meaning there’s a wide range of potential growth scenarios.

  • Displays lead the way for printed semiconductors. Printed semiconductors will grow to $68 million in 2017, with solution-processed OLED emissive materials the lead application.

Rising silver cost will have less impact on emerging silver paste and ink alternatives prices. (Source: Lux Research)

October 30, 2012 – This year is shaping up to be a historically lousy year for makers of flat-panel display (FPD) manufacturing equipment, but expectations are looking up that demand will catch up to supply in 2013 and balance the market, according to NPD DisplaySearch projections. Spending on FPD equipment is projected to plummet -69% in 2012 to $3.8 billion, making it the worst year in the sector’s history. But even with slow demand growth in maturing markets (TVs and PCs), the firm sees "significantly improved conditions" in 2013, more than doubling to $8.3B.

Most of that spending will be for new low-temperature polysilicon (LTPS) fabs or converting existing amorphous silicon (a-Si) capacity to LTPS, both for use in TFT-LCD and active-matrix OLED (AMOLED) production, explains Charles Annis, VP of manufacturing research at NPD DisplaySearch. "One reason spending is increasing so much is because LTPS fabs cost substantially more than a-Si fabs to build. There are extra process necessitate more than 10 mask steps." LTPS fabs also require higher-priced equipment, particularly high-resolution photolithography tools, he added, but having those technologies does enable production of high-value displays used in smartphones and tablets.



FPD equipment spending forecast. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch)

Such dramatic cutbacks in investment will more quickly rebalance supplies with demand and raise fab utilization rates. Meanwhile, new manufacturing technologies (oxide semiconductors, in-cell touch, flexible AMOLEDs and AMOLED TVs) promise lower costs and higher-value applications. Together that spells improve profitability for panel makers, notes Annis. Even with the cautionary disclaimer that new investments (e.g. AMOLED capacity) can be pushed out or cancelled if performance and cost targets don’t materialize, most of the firm’s indicators project 2013 "to be a much better year than 2012."

October 24, 2012 – Several trends are helping to steer the flat-panel display industry back on the road to recovery, despite excess capacity and eroding prices (and profits). One is the commercialization of advanced technologies and specifications (e.g. higher resolution, wider viewing angels, integrated touch functionality, and slimmer/lighter formfactors). The other is a shift toward larger panel sizes.

“The average diagonal sizes of key FPD applications have increased over the past three years, and every inch of growth in flat panel display applications results in growth in area demand and thus capacity utilization,” points out David Hsieh, VP of Greater China Market Research for NPD DisplaySearch. Consumers won’t want to go back to smaller displays and lower resolutions, so average (diagonal) sizes will accelerate in 2013, spurring long-term growth for the entire flat-panel display industry. DisplaySearch notes that LCD TV panel sizes have increased 2 inches in just the past 12 months (August 2011-August 2012), from 34.8-in. to 36.8-in.. Sharp, which has the highest average screen size of TV panels shipped, has added nearly 10-in. to its panels (39.1-in. to 48.3 in). Given a total typical 18-20M panel shipments/month, those extra sizes add up quickly.

Here’s DisplaySearch’s tracking of multiple key FPD applications and their size differences over a four-year period. Note mobile PCs are actually seeing smaller screen sizes thanks to the rise of tablets and ultrabooks. The firm also notes "challenges" for desktop panels in 2012-2013 as due to PC bundles and fewer standalone PC replacements, though consumers are splurging on bigger LCD monitors (23-in. to 27-in.).

Average diagonal size of key FPD applications, in inches. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch)

What’s behind the increase in screen sizes? Consumers, given the choice, are choosing bigger: 26W to 29 W, 37W to 39W, 46/47 to 50-in, 55 to 60-in. That includes when they upgrade older LCD TVs. Consumers in North America have been upgrading their living room sets from 40-in. to 50-in. or bigger, and from 32-in. to 39-40 in the bedroom, DisplaySearch notes. And for TV firms, larger-sized TVs mean bigger profit margins.

DisplaySearch says to watch for some major holiday promotions around bigger LCD TVs. (Rumor has it there’ll be a Black Friday deal of $999 for a 60-in. LCD TV.) This should keep whetting consumers’ appetites to keep migrating to bigger screens, perpetuating the trend of making the bigger panels.

October 18, 2012 – Worldwide flat-panel display (FPD) revenues will reach a record $120 billion in 2012, up 8% from a challenging year in 2011, and the recovery is entirely on the backs of TFT-LCDs and AMOLED displays, according to NPD DisplaySearch.

TFT-LCD displays still make up the vast share of all display sales (~90%), and so the overall market tracks in-step with this segment, rebounding from a -5% decline in 2011 to an 8% rise in 2012. Note, though, that of all the other display technology slices, AMOLEDs have by far the best growth trajectory — two years ago it was fourth in total market share (1%) behind plasma, passive matrix, and roughly tied with CRT; now it’s the second-most-popular display technology with a 5.4% share and the gap is widening. Credit surging manufacturing capacity and expansion of market players, DisplaySearch says. The only other segment to see any growth is liquid crystal on silicon (LCOS) used for microdisplays. Also note the sharp rise and sharper plummet of active-matrix electrophoretic displays (AMEPD), used in monochrome e-reader devices, which are giving up ground to TFT-LCD tablet PCs.

Worldwide FPD revenues by technology, 2010-2012. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch)

2011 was a tough year for displays due to price erosion in TFT-LCD panels, particularly for TV applications, DisplaySearch notes. The rebound in 2012 has many factors behind it: bigger average sizes and shipments of LCD TVs, higher prices for high-resolution mobile displays, strong unit growth for tablet PCs, expansion of AMOLED shipments and applications, thinner and lighter ultraslim notebook PC panels, the emergence of 4k × 2k LCD TVs, and demand for a number of applications including games, car navigation systems, and digital signage.

"While the industry faces challenges in traditional applications such as plasma TVs and mainstream sizes of LCD TVs and desktop monitors, the addition of new features and lower prices are driving growth of applications such as tablet PCs and smartphones," explained David Hsieh, VP at NPD DisplaySearch.

The outlook for the FPD industry isn’t entirely cloud-free: there’s a lot of saturation in several major markets, Hsieh noted. Nevertheless, the supply chain is figuring out how to "increase the value proposition" of FPDs by emphasizing their technology improvements: higher resolution for mobile devices, bigger screens, thinner and lighter versions for mobile PCs, improved wide-viewing angle, and desirable functionalities like touchscreen. "We expect 2013 to be a good year for the FPD industry, with revenue increasing, as TFT LCD prices recover and AMOLED demand grows," Hsieh said.