Category Archives: LEDs

Harnessing big data


July 28, 2014

Addressing the analytics challenges in supply chain management. 

BY NORD SAMUELSON, CHRISTOPHER POCEK and CHRIS LANMAN, AlixPartners, San Francisco, CA 

A changing workforce and lack of convergence between information technology (IT) and business may be preventing many companies from joining the big-data revolution. Defined as very large sets of data but more commonly used in reference to the rapid increase in amounts of data in recent years, big data will divide companies into two groups in the next decade: those able to benefit from big data’s potential and those unable. Companies that create capabilities for capturing, processing, analyzing, and distributing data in order to make better decisions in real time will likely be able to outperform their competition and respond more quickly to their customers’ needs. The data avalanche is coming from a number of sources, such as enterprise resource planning, orders, shipments, Weblogs, GPS data, radio-frequency identification, mobile devices, and social channels; and there is value to be created in all areas of a business by adopting a data-driven culture.

However, in discussions about big data’s arrival, we sometimes forget to ask how effectively we’re converting the data into value. Too often, huge investments in IT infrastructure coupled with sophisticated analytical and reporting software have delivered little value. Why? We often find it’s because companies are understaffed, or they may lack the analytics talent who know how to build links between the data and the value drivers. There is also a gap between finding insights from data and then applying the insights to create value. That is where the levels of training and experience of a company’s analysts enter the equation.

One area of particular concern is supply chain management (SCM). A company’s SCM organization makes decisions about build plans, stocking locations, inventory levels, and so forth based on the conversion of raw data about demand, sales, and inventory on hand. And when there’s a shortage of analytics talent, SCM is typically one of the first areas affected. Traditionally, analytical innovation happens in two ways: either through an internal-pipeline process of developing junior analysts into senior analysts or by periodically bringing in external experts to seed knowledge. But big data is challenging both approaches.

The internal pipeline is challenged by a workforce marked by shorter tenures. Shorter tenures result
in more generalists in the workforce, often in place of the specialists needed for analytical innovation. For example, younger workers, such as millennials, are significantly less likely to settle into a long career at a company. According to a survey by Future Workplace, 91% of millennials (born in the 1980s and ’90s) expect to stay in a job for less than three years (Meister 2012), meaning that those in analytical roles are usually in the job only long enough to execute established analytics—and not long enough to develop a holistic understanding of how data can be applied to drive business value. As a result, those on the business side and those on the IT side don’t always learn to make the end-to-end connections between raw data and measurable value. The internal-pipeline approach is further challenged by companies themselves: frustrated by high turnover, companies are less likely to invest in developing their people— only to watch the people leave for higher-paying positions.

The second approach—that of periodically bringing in external experts to rebuild a process or implement the latest software package—is also starting to show wear. The evolution cycle of new analytical techniques is rapidly slowing down as big data brings opportunities to better integrate internal and external data sources. Traditionally, companies have been able to implement software solutions or bring in experts to install the latest offering and then profit from that investment for five or seven years. The initial cost was justified by the continued value for years to come. But now, the volume, variety, and velocity of the new data being generated are changing the business landscape by calling for a more rapid cycle of analytical-tool introduction. And that landscape itself usually changes every two or three years. So, as a result, the days of big-bang projects appear to be coming to an end.

What can be done? Companies should look across the entire supply chain—or across any function,
for that matter—and measure the amount of data being generated. Then they should weigh that measurement against the value actually realized. If data volumes are growing more rapidly than the corresponding increase in value, there may be an analytics talent challenge.

Three methods of creating value have proved effective in today’s rapidly changing market.

1. Outsourcing portions of analytic requirements

Companies can approach analytics outsourcing in a variety of ways, ranging from a data prep model—in which a company hires a third party to process raw data to the point where an analyst can consume it— all the way to a fully outsourced model, in which a third party processes and analyzes the data, poten- tially adds other proprietary data, and sends back fully actionable information. The data prep model enables a company to focus a limited pool of analysts on the critical knowledge-capture portion of the process and thereby free up time spent on non-value- added processes. The fully outsourced model enables companies to stay up-to-date on the latest technol- ogies and software without having to make up-front investments to purchase the latest software and technology.

2. Creating central analytics teams

Companies that rely heavily on converting data to knowledge can set up an analytic group focused solely on solving analytical issues across the company. Such companies have adopted analytics
as a core differentiator and encourage analysts to develop the holistic view that facilitates insight. Central analytics groups seem to perform better than embedded groups—and especially when they report through the business side. Of course, maintaining a group dedicated to analytics is an investment that some companies may hesitate to make, but there is tremendous value in having such in-house expertise.

3. Partnering with academic or not-for-profit institutions

Academic and nonprofit organizations are often-overlooked resources. For instance, the brand-new Center for Supply Chain Management at the University of Pittsburgh intends to provide student and faculty interactions with industry representatives who will promote experience-based learning activities within the university’s supply chain management courses. To improve the center’s effectiveness, the university plans to create a Supply Chain Management Industry Council composed of member companies dedicated to SCM. The council members, along with tenured faculty specializing in teaching SCM, will foster interest and excellence in SCM and analysis. Other institutions offer training, certifications, and conferences that encourage and enable analysts to further develop and share ideas. The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences recently introduced the Certified Analytics Profes- sional certification to give companies an option for developing their people without having to make hefty investments in training organizations.

Big data is fundamentally transforming the way business operates. It is enabling management to track the previously untrackable, forecast the previ- ously unpredictable, and understand interactions between suppliers and customers—all of it with unprecedented clarity. And winning organizations will invest in the necessary infrastructure and people to harness the transformative power of data.

New approaches to start-ups can unlock mega-trend opportunities.

BY MIKE NOONEN, Silicon Catalyst, San Jose, CA; SCOTT JONES and NORD SAMUELSON, AlixPartners, San Francisco, CA

The semiconductor industry returned growth and reached record revenues in 2013, breaking $300 billion for the first time after the industry had contracted in 2011 and 2012 (FIGURE 1).

FIGURE 1. Worldwide semiconductor revenue. Source: World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, February 2014.

FIGURE 1. Worldwide semiconductor revenue. Source: World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, February 2014.

However, even with that return to growth, underlying trends in the semiconductor industry are disturbing: The semiconductor cycle continues its gyrations, but overall growth is slowing. And despite 5% year-on-year revenue growth in 2013 (the highest since 2010), the expectation is that semiconductor growth will likely continue to be at a rate below its long-term trend of 8 to 10% for the next three to five years (FIGURE 2). An AlixPartners 2014 publication , Cashing In with Chips, showed that semiconductor industry growth had slowed to roughly half of its long-term growth average since the 2010 recovery—with no expectation that it will return to historical growth until at least 2017. Other studies have also shownthat semiconductor growth has slowed not only relative to its previous performance but also versus growth in other industries. And a study conducted by New York University’s Stern School of Business[1] found that the semiconductor industry’s revenue growth lagged the average revenue growth of all industries and ranked 60th out of 94 industries surveyed. Surprisingly, the industry’s net income growth of semiconductor companies lagged even further behind—ranking 84th out of 94 companies surveyed—and had actually been negative during the previous five years.

FIGURE 2. Semiconductor revenue growth. Sources: Semiconductor Industry Association and AlixPartners research.

FIGURE 2. Semiconductor revenue growth. Sources: Semiconductor Industry Association and AlixPartners research.

In another study released by AlixPartners that looked at a broader picture of the semiconductor value chain, including areas such as equipment suppliers and packaging and test companies, the research showed that outside of the top 5 companies, the remainder of the 186 companies surveyed had declining earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (FIGURE 3).

FIGURE 3. Spotlight on the top five (fiscal year 2012). Source: AlixPartners Research.

FIGURE 3. Spotlight on the top five (fiscal year 2012). Source: AlixPartners Research.

As revenue growth slows, costs increase at a rapid rate

As semiconductor technology advances, the cost of developing a system on chip (SoC) has risen dramatically for leading-edge process technologies. Semico Research has estimated that the total cost of an SoC development, design, intellectual property (IP) procurement, software, testing has tripled from 40/45 nanometers (nm) to 20 nm and could exceed $250 million for future 10-nm designs(FIGURE 4) [2]. This does not bode well for an economic progression of Moore’s law, and it means that very few applications will have the volume and pricing power to afford such outlandish investment. If we assume that a 28nm SoC can achieve a 20% market share and 50% gross margins, the end market would have to be worth over $1 billion to recoup R&D costs of $100 million. By 10 nm, end markets would have to result in more than $2.5 billion to recoup projected development costs. With few end markets capable of supporting that high a level of development costs, the number of companies willing to invest in SoCs on the leading edge will likely decline significantly each generation.

FIGURE 4. Development Costs are Skyrocketing. Source: Semico Research Corp.

FIGURE 4. Development Costs are Skyrocketing. Source: Semico Research Corp.

What happened to semiconductor start- ups?

The history of the semiconductor industry has been shaped by the semiconductor start-up. Going back to Fairchild, the start-up has been the driving force for growth and innovation. Start-ups helped shape the industry, and they are now some of the largest and most successful companies in the industry. But the environment that lasted from the 1960s until the early 2000s—and that made the success of those companies possible—has changed dramatically. The number of venture capital investments in new semiconductor start-ups in the United States has fallen dramatically, from 50 per year to the low single digits (FIGURE 5). And even though that drop is not as dramatic in other countries — such as China and Israel — it is indicative of an overall lack of investment in semiconductors.

FIGURE 5. Number of seed/series a deals. Source: Global Semiconductor Alliance.

FIGURE 5. Number of seed/series a deals. Source: Global Semiconductor Alliance.

The main reason for the decline is the attractiveness of other businesses for the same investment. In the fourth quarter of 2013, nearly 400 software start-ups received almost $3 billion of funding, whereas only 25 semiconductor start-ups received just $178 million (representing all stages) (FIGURE 6). It seems that (1) the lower cost of starting a software company, (2) the relatively short time frame to realize revenue, and (3) attractive initial-public-offering and acquisition markets possibly make the software start-up segment more interesting than semiconductors.

FIGURE 6. Funding of software and semiconductor start- ups. Source: PwC, US Investments by Industry/Q4 2013.

FIGURE 6. Funding of software and semiconductor start- ups. Source: PwC, US Investments by Industry/Q4 2013.

This situation is unfortunate and has conspired to create a vicious and downward cycle (FIGURE 7).

  • Lack of investment limits start-ups
  • Lack of start-ups limits innovation
  • Lack of innovation and fewer start-ups limits the number of potential acquisition targets for established companies.
  • Reduced potential acquisition targets in turn limit returns for companies and returns for those who would have invested in start-ups.
  • Limited returns make future investments less likely and continue the cycle of less innovation and lower investment [3]. 
FIGURE 7. A vicious cycle limits innovation.

FIGURE 7. A vicious cycle limits innovation.

Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that the demise of semiconductor start-ups is a contributing cause to the lackluster results of the overall semiconductor industry. And that demise and those lackluster results are further exacerbated by the rise of activist shareholders who demand a more rapid return on their investment, which possibly reduces the potential for innovation in an industry that has lengthy development cycles.

What about other industries?

It is tempting to think that the semiconductor industry is alone in this predicament, but other industries face similar challenges and have figured out accretive paths forward. For example, biotechnology has some of the same issues:

  • An industry that grows by bringing innovation to market 
  • Similarly lengthy development cycles 
  • Potentially capital intensive at the research and production stages

In addition, the biotech industry faces a challenge the semiconductor world does not — namely, the need for government regulatory approval before moving to production and then volume sales. Gaining that regulatory approval is a go-to-market hurdle that can add years and uncertainty to a product cycle.

However, in spite of its similarities to the semiconductor business and the added regulatory hurdles, the biotech industry enjoys a very healthy venture-funding and start-up environment. In fact, in the fourth quarter of 2013 in the United States, biotech was the second-largest business sector for venture funding in both dollars and total number of deals (FIGURE 8).

FIGURE 8. Funding of software and semiconductor start- ups. Source: PwC, US Investments by Industry/Q4 2013.

FIGURE 8. Funding of software and semiconductor start- ups. Source: PwC, US Investments by Industry/Q4 2013.

Why is this? What do biotech executives, entre- preneurs, and investors know that the semiconductor industry can take advantage of? There are several lessons to be learned.

  • Big biotech companies have made investing, cultivating, and acquiring start-ups key parts of their innovation and product development processes. 
  • Biotech and venture investors identify interesting problems to solve and then match the problems to skilled and passionate entrepreneurs to solve them.
  • Those entrepreneurs are motivated to create and develop solutions much faster and usually more frugally than if they were working inside a large company.
  • The entrepreneurs and investors are creating businesses to be acquired versus creating businesses that will rival major industry players.
  • The acquiring companies apply their manufacturing economies of scale and well-estab- lished sales and marketing strategies to rapidly— and profitably—bring the newly acquired solutions to market.

For several reasons, certain megatrends are driving the high-technology sector and the economy as a whole, and all of them are enabled by semiconductor innovation (FIGURE 9). Among the major trends:

  • Mobile computing will likely continue to merge functions and drive computing power.
  • Security concerns appear to be increasing at all levels: government, enterprise, and personal.
  • Cloud computing will possibly cause an upheaval in information technology.
  • Personalization through technology and logistics appears to be on the rise.
  • Energy efficiency is likely need for sustainability and lower cost of ownership.
  • Next generation wireless will likely be driven by insatiable coverage and bandwidth needs.
  • The Internet of things will likely lead to mobile processing at low power with ubiquitous radio frequency.
FIGURE 9. Global internet device installed base forecast. Sources: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics, Machina Research, company filings, BII estimates.

FIGURE 9. Global internet device installed base forecast. Sources: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics, Machina Research, company filings, BII estimates.

The Internet of Things megatrend alone will result in a tremendous amount of new semiconductor innovation that in turn will likely lead to volume markets. Cisco Systems CEO John Chambers has predicted a $19-trillion market by 2020 resulting from Internet of Things applications [4].

Does it really cost $100 million to start a semiconductor company?

The prevailing conventional wisdom is that it takes $100 million to start a new semiconductor company, and in some cases that covers only the cost of a silicon development. It is true that recently, several companies have spent eight- or nine-figure sums of money to develop their products, but those are very much exceptions. The reality is that most semiconductor development is not at the bleeding edge, nor is the development of billion-transistor SoCs.

The majority of design starts in 2013 were in .13 μm, and this year, 65, 55, 45, and 40nm are all growing (FIGURE 10). These technologies are becoming very affordable as they mature. And costs will likely continue to decrease as more capacity becomes available once new companies enter the foundry business and as former DRAM vendors in Taiwan and new fab in China come online.

FIGURE 10: .13um has the most design starts; 65nm and 45nm have yet to peak.

FIGURE 10: .13um has the most design starts; 65nm and 45nm have yet to peak.

Another thing to consider is whether a new company would sell solutions that use existing technology or platforms (i.e., a chipless start-up) or whether a company would choose to originate IP that enables functionality for incorporation into another integrated circuit.

A chipless start-up would add value to an existing architecture or platform. It could be an algorithm or an application-specific solution on, say, a field-programmable gate array, a microcontroller unit or an application-specific standard product. It could also be service based on an existing hardware platform.

A company developing innovative new functionality for inclusion into another SoC paves a path to getting to revenue quickly. Such IP solution providers would supply functionality for integration not only into a larger SoC but also into the emerging market for 2.5-D and 3-D applications.

In both situations (the chipless start-up and the IP provider), significant cost may be avoided by the use of existing technology or the absence of the need to build infrastructure or capabilities already provided by partners. In addition, those paths have much faster times to revenue as well as inherently lower burn rates, which are conducive to higher returns for investors.

Even for start-ups that intend to develop leading-edge multicore SoCs, a $100-million investment is not inevitable. Take, for example, Adapteva, an innovative start-up in Lexington, Massachusetts. Founded by Andreas Olofsson, Adapteva has developed a 64-core parallel processing solution in 28 nm. The processor is the highest gigaflops/watt solution available today, beating solutions from much larger and more-established companies. However, Adapteva has raised only about $5 million to date, a good portion of which funding was crowd sourced on the Kickstarter Web site. This just shows that even a leading-edge multicore SoC can be developed cost-effectively—and effectively—through the use of multiproject wafers and other frugal methods.

Several conclusions can be drawn at this point.

  • Even though the semiconductor industry is growing again, the underlying trends for profitability and growth are not encouraging. 
  • Cost development is increasingly rapid on leading-edge SoCs. 
  • Historically, start-ups have been engines of innovation of growth and innovation for semiconductors. 
  • In recent years, venture funding for new semiconductor companies has almost completely dried up. 
  • That lack of investment of semiconductor start-ups has contributed to a downward and vicious cycle that will further erode the economics of semiconductor companies. 
  • The biotechnology industry has many parallels to the semiconductor. Interestingly, biotechnology has a relatively thriving venture funding and start-up environment, and we can apply that industry’s successful approach to semiconductors. 
  • Despite the state of start-ups, it is now one of the most exciting times to be in semiconductors because most of the megatrends driving the economy are either enabled by or dependent on semiconductor innovation. 
  • It does not need to take $100 million to start the typical semiconductor company, because a great deal of innovation will use very affordable technologies, and come from chipless start-ups or IP providers that have much lower burn rates and ties to revenue.
  • Even leading-edge multicore SoCs can be developed frugally (for single-digit millions of dollars) and profitably. 

References

1. http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_ Page/datafile/histgr.html

2. SoC Silicon and Software Design Cost Analysis: Costs for Higher Complexity Continue to Rise SC102-13 May 2013.

3. AlixPartners and Silicon Catalyst analysis and experi- ence.

4. Cisco Systems public statements.

SEMI today announced the launch of the association’s first-ever event in Latin America. The inaugural SEMI South America Semiconductor Strategy Summit will be held November 18-20, 2014, at the Hilton Buenos Aires in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Argentina-based Unitec Blue and the Brazil Development Bank BNDES are supporting the event.

The growing strength of Latin American markets is driving interest and investment in electronics manufacturing in South America. Device manufacturers, including Unitec Blue in Argentina, and SIX Semicondutores and CEITEC in Brazil, are established and planning new investments in front- and back-end manufacturing capabilities. With the continued globalization of the microelectronics industry, and localization of manufacturing capabilities within growing electronic markets, the South American market presents new opportunities for supply chain companies.

“We are pleased to announce this new project and excited by the opportunities in Latin America for our members,” said Bettina Weiss, vice president of business development for SEMI. “We are especially grateful to Unitec Blue and BNDES for their support of this inaugural event, as it shows the clear intent of the device maker community in South America to attract new investment and drive industry expansion in the region.”

The three-day event includes a delegation tour of the Unitec Blue facilities in Buenos Aires, and a full two-day conference featuring presentations and panel discussions from industry leaders, analysts, and government representatives. The conference will provide overviews of the current industry environment in South America, address the challenges and opportunities for supply chain companies in the region, and explore the next steps in building the region’s microelectronics industry infrastructure.

The SEMI South America Semiconductor Strategy Summit follows the successful launch of a similar event in Vietnam last year, which was the first SEMI venture in that emerging market. “By taking small, but significant steps in new and emerging markets, SEMI is strategically working to open doors for our members to help them explore new opportunities when markets emerge,” said Weiss. “Events like the SEMI South America Semiconductor Strategy Summit bring together global and regional industry leaders and helps foster the connections and relationships that hopefully lead to business and market growth.”

Registration for the SEMI South America Semiconductor Strategy Summit costs US$ 350. Registration, agenda, and sponsorship information is available online at www.semi.org/southamerica.

China’s massive investments in light-emitting diode (LED) manufacturing capacity are paying off, with a Chinese company entering the top ranks of the global market for the first time ever, according to IHS Technology.

China’s MLS Electronics Co. Ltd. in 2013 rose to the No. 10 rank in the worldwide market for packaged LEDs, up from 14th place in 2012. With the other top 10 players based in South Korea, Japan, the United States, Germany and Taiwan, as presented in the attached figure, this represents a first for China’s burgeoning LED industry.

2014-06-18_LED_Rank_Final

“Since 2011, most of the new LED production capacity that has been added worldwide has occurred in China,” said Jamie Fox, principal LED analyst for IHS. “Because of this, it was inevitable that Chinese companies eventually would penetrate the ranks of the top 10 LED suppliers. MLS was first to join the global elite, having established itself as the clear leader in the Chinese market by capitalizing on strong domestic demand. For the major suppliers, MLS’s ascent into the market’s upper ranks represents a clear signal that Chinese firms soon will become major competitors in the global LED business.”

These findings come from the IHS LED Intelligence Service.

China’s LED market lights up

MLS is one of many Chinese LED suppliers that have sprung up amid the surge in production. However, the other firms do not even rank among the top 20 global suppliers. China’s LED supply base is massive and highly fragmented, with thousands of small manufacturers located across the country.

“Despite leading the domestic market, MLS accounted for less than 10 percent of Chinese LED revenue in 2013,” said Alice Tao, China LED analyst at IHS. “The next five largest LED suppliers in China represented only about 20 percent of the market.”

With the rise of LED manufacturing capacity in China, concerns have risen relating to overcapacity. Some of the equipment purchased for metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) manufacturing—the most important process step in LED production—is now sitting idle in China. Observers have fretted that the overcapacity could result in the shutdown of some Chinese suppliers.

However, only a few of the smaller Chinese vendors so far have closed their LED operations. Most of the top companies remain active in the market, with some posting strong profit margins.

An insular market goes global

MLS and the smaller Chinese suppliers mostly compete among themselves for a share of the large domestic LED market. The international portion of sales for these companies is very small.

At the same, the extremely low prices in the Chinese market make the country inaccessible to overseas suppliers. Because of this, foreign LED makers don’t encounter Chinese competitors very often.

But that situation will change rapidly. IHS expects the LED revenues of Chinese vendors to grow steadily over time, as the country’s economy continues to grow strongly. Because of this, Chinese LED suppliers will begin to sell more internationally and come into competition with foreign rivals.

Barriers to entry

Both intellectual property and quality are concerns for international customers that are considering Chinese suppliers.

However, several factors suggest these concerns could be alleviated over time. These factors include patent expirations, China’s established history in other industries, the sheer volume of manufacturing capacity in the country and the fact that many LED lamps are assembled in the nation.

Top-tier LED suppliers such as Nichia, Osram, Lumileds and Cree so far have seen only a small impact from Chinese vendors on their sales. This is especially true in the market for general lighting in regions such as Europe and the Americas. Such will not necessarily be the case by the end of the decade.

For instance, MLS has started 2014 on a strong note, and may have even ranked among the IHS top 10 LED suppliers in the first quarter.

One out of every four dollars spent worldwide on light-emitting diode (LED) drivers in 2013 was used for lighting applications, illustrating the growing importance of illumination in the LED business, according to IHS Technology.

LED driver revenues from lighting applications last year totaled $305 million, representing 25 percent of the total driver market of $1.2 billion, as presented in the attached figure. The LED lighting market will continue to boom in the coming years, causing revenue for associated drivers to nearly triple to $893 million in 2019. This will amount to 43 percent of the $2.1 billion LED driver market.

2014-06-19_LED_Driver

“Lighting represents the fastest-growing segment of the LED market, and is accounting for a larger share of market revenue—as well as of overall driver sales,” said Jamie Fox, principal LED analyst for IHS.

The lighting segment mainly consists of lamps and luminaries, with flashlights, architectural illumination and other applications representing a smaller share of the market. Lamps accounted for most of the lighting units shipped in 2013, and for 50 percent—or $151 million—of the revenue for all lighting ICs. This share is set to increase.

The information in this release is derived from the report entitled “LED Driver ICs — World” from the Lighting & LEDs service at IHS.

Driving to growth

An LED driver is an integrated circuit (IC) that manages and controls the electrical current for an LED.

LED driver ICs play an important role in energy savings and are used to support most high-brightness LEDs. Drivers are regarded as an important, if not essential, feature in high-quality LED lighting products.

Beyond the lighting segment, there are also significant sales of driver ICs to diverse applications such as signage, mobile handsets, TVs, notebooks, monitors and tablets, as well as automotive applications.

Price pressure lightens up

LED drivers aren’t subject to the same brutal price erosion that’s impacting the LED market itself. As a result, LED driver revenue will rise by double-digit percentages in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Furthermore, unit sales of dimmable LED lamps are outgrowing those of non-dimmable lamps. The average price of drivers for non-dimmable lamps is much higher than dimmable lamps, helping maintain strong revenue growth.

Texas Instruments drives to the top

Texas Instruments maintained its position as the leading supplier of LED driver ICs in 2013, followed by STMicroelectronics.

In the signage segment of the market, Taiwan’s Macroblock remained the leader. Meanwhile, Western semiconductor giants played prominent roles in other segments, including companies such as On Semiconductor, Maxim, NXP, Skyworks, ams and Power Integrations.

While suppliers overall focus on different markets, most of the companies that are expected to continue growing will remain directed toward a lighting market that already accounts for a quarter of the total business, and will continue to grow as LED lamp sales increase rapidly during the next few years.

The global market outlook for AC-DC and DC-DC power supplies is set for healthy expansion starting this year until at least 2018, with revenue during these four years projected to grow by $3.5 billion, according to a new report from IHS Technology.

Market revenue will expand to $25.1 billion in 2018, up from $21.6 billion in 2014, as presented in the attached figure.

The hefty four-year increase is an improvement compared to the previous three years from 2010 to 2013, when revenue grew by less than $1.0 billion. Growth this year is anticipated at 4.6 percent, with expansion to be as robust or even strengthen in 2015 and 2016.

“The markets for most applications that use a power supply are now growing again after a couple of gloomy years, with emerging applications such as power supplies for light-emitting diode (LED) lighting and media tablets leading the way,” said Jonathon Eykyn, power supply and storage component analyst for IHS. “Demand for power supplies for these two applications alone is projected to grow by more than $2.5 billion from 2014 to 2018, but other power supply markets—such as telecommunications, data communications and industrial—are also projected to provide growth opportunities to power supply vendors in the coming years.”

Aside from emerging applications driving growth, many projects that had been cancelled or postponed because of economic concerns in the past are now being restarted to coincide with new projects and technology rollouts, further stimulating the market. Also fueling significant expansion in the demand for power supplies is the continued growth of data centers to cope with the rise of cloud computing and the Internet of Things. Thanks to such drivers, revenue for power supplies to the server, storage and networking markets is projected to climb 24 percent from 2014 to 2018.

Growth is also solid in the markets for cellphone power supplies, with revenue forecast to ascend more than 8 percent in 2014. However, growth will slow after this year as more phones begin to ship without a bundled charger.

Meanwhile, the power supplies market for desktop PCs and notebooks is calculated to decline by around 2 percent every year from 2014 to 2018. This is because the traditional computing markets of desktop PCs and notebooks are set to deteriorate as consumers continue to favor more mobile solutions, such as media tablets and even cellphones.

All of these changes are influencing the state of the power supply market. In particular, market share rankings for 2013 were turbulent with six of the top 10 manufacturers changing positions and two new companies entering the elite tier. Overall, Delta Electronics retained its position as the world’s largest supplier of merchant power supplies, followed by Emerson and Lite-On.

The two suppliers that grew the most in market share in 2013 were Salcomp and Mean Well, whose combined revenue rose more than 30 percent and added 1.3 percent to their share of market compared to 2012.

“These suppliers are well-entrenched within the fast-growing cellphone and LED lighting markets,” Eykyn said. “It’s clear from these results that other manufacturers will have to continue to diversify their portfolios in order to remain competitive.”

These findings can be found in the forthcoming report, The World Market for AC-DC & DC-DC Merchant Power Supplies from the Power & Energy service of IHS. The full report from IHS includes analysis of the opportunities for commodity AC-DC, as well as non-commodity AC-DC and DC-DC power supplies across 22 applications, with forecasts through 2018. It also presents market-share estimates with 13 separate splits.

By Jeff Dorsch

The worldwide semiconductor capital equipment market is forecast to increase 20.8 percent this year to $38.44 billion, compared with 2013’s $31.82 billion, and another 10.8 percent in 2015 to $42.6 billion, according to Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International.

Also on Monday, the Semiconductor Industry Association reported that global sales of semiconductors were $26.86 billion in May, an 8.8 percent increase from a year earlier and a 2 percent improvement from April of this year.

Jonathan Davis, SEMI’s global vice president of advocacy, said Monday that the semiconductor industry is seen growing 5 percent to 10 percent in 2014, and noted that all world regions posted growth in sales during May, a statistical factor not recorded since August 2010.

Discussing expenditures on capital equipment, Davis said, “The nature of the spending is changing.” The number of new wafer fabs has dwindled in recent years, and more spending is directed these days to upgrading existing fabs.

2015 promises to be the biggest year for semiconductor equipment spending since 2000, Davis said. While the equipment market is growing more than 20 percent this year, the semiconductor materials market will see more modest growth in 2014, at 6 percent, he added.

Karen Savala, the president of SEMI Americas, reviewed economic and technology trends in the equipment and materials business during Monday’s SEMI press conference. The industry has gone through “one of the largest consolidation periods in our history,” including the pending blockbuster merger between Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TEL), she noted.

The longstanding economics of Moore’s Law is being challenged, she added. The Internet of Things is a tremendous opportunity for the chip-making business, yet it doesn’t involve leading-edge technology, Savala said. “Traditional node scaling seems to be slowing,” she observed. Scaling is apparently decelerating below the 32-nanometer process node, according to Savala, but it may be advanced with the introduction of new materials, new substrates, and 2.5D/3D packaging.

“The ecosystem is changing,” Savala said.

SEMI now forecasts that wafer processing equipment will grow 22.7 percent in 2014 to $31.12 billion, from $25.36 billion in 2013, and advance 11.9 percent more in 2015 to $34.81 billion. Test equipment is expected to see a 12.5 percent increase this year to $3.06 billion and pick up by 1.6 percent next year to $3.11 billion. Assembly and packaging equipment is forecast to reach $2.52 billion in 2014, an 8.6 percent improvement from last year, and growing 1.2% in 2015 to $2.55 billion. Other equipment categories will be up 22.5 percent this year to $1.74 billion and up 21.8 percent next year to $2.12 billion.

All global regions except one, the rest of the world, are forecast to post increased sales in 2014, according to SEMI. Taiwan will remain the largest region with $11.57 billion in equipment sales this year, up 11.57 percent from 2013, while higher growth rates will be seen in China, North America, South Korea, Japan, and Europe. All regions are expected to show growth in 2015, ranging from 1.6 percent in China up to 47.8 percent in Europe.

SEMI 2014 mid-year equipment forecast.

SEMI 2014 mid-year equipment forecast.

Each year at SEMICON West, the largest and most influential microelectronics exposition in North America, the “Best of West” awards are presented by Solid State Technology and SEMI. The award was established to recognize contributors moving the industry forward with their technological developments in the microelectronics supply chain.

The 2014 Best of West Finalists are:

  • Microtronic: EAGLEview IV — EAGLEview IV is an automated macro defect wafer inspection system that provides industry leading throughput (3,000+ Wafers Per Day), defect detection accuracy, and wafer classification. EAGLEview IV resolves many of the problems of manual/micro wafer inspection by automating and standardizing wafer inspection. South Hall, Booth 729 (Category: Metrology and Test)
  • Nikon Corporation: NSR-S630D Immersion Scanner — The NSR-S630D ArF immersion scanner leverages the well-known Streamlign platform, incorporating further developments in stage, optics, and autofocus technology to deliver unprecedented mix-and-match overlay and focus control with sustained stability to enable the 10/7 nm node.  South Hall, Booth 1705 (Category: Wafer Processing Equipment)   
  • SPTS Technologies:  Rapier XE — Rapier XE is a new, 300mm, plasma etch module which can lower costs and increase yields for device manufacturers utilizing TSVs for 3D packaging.  Designed for via reveal applications, the new module offers blanket silicon etch rates typically 3-4x faster than competing systems. South Hall, Booth 1317 (Category: Wafer Processing Equipment)   

The Best of West Award winner will be announced during SEMICON West (www.semiconwest.org) on Wednesday, July 9, 2014.

Yole Développement has released a new report, Permanent Wafer Bonding, detailing permanent bonding technologies and the microelectronic applications that use permanent bonding such as MEMS, Advanced Packaging, LEDs and SOI substrates. Forecasts through 2019 are given for market size, wafer starts and equipment usage by application and technology.

Their analysis shows that MEMS devices are the main applications using permanent bonding technologies in mass production, followed by CMOS Image Sensor BSI (CIS BSI). They conclude that fusion bonding is the most frequently-used permanent bonding technologies in today’s semiconductor industry, mainly supported by CIS and SOI substrate applications.

Permanent wafer bonding revenue was close $127MM in 2013 and expected to reach $450MM by 2019, growing at a 23% CAGR.

In the next few years, growth is expected from metal bonding for MEMs applications and Cu-Cu / oxide “hybrid bonding.” All major players are working on the implementation and qualification of this technology for the new generation of BSI CIS.

Perm Bond fig

Yole projects that permanent bonding, which is well established for MEMs,  will continue to grow over the next five years while moving from glass frit technology to metal bonding for  better reliability, better hermaticity and smaller footprint due to smaller required bond frames.

Permanent bonding for CMOS sensors is dominated by adhesive and fusion bonding. Adhesive bonding is used for attaching the glass cap wafer to the device wafer. Fusion bonding, with anneal temperatures in the range of 20 – 400 ◦C, is the dominant technology for BSI sensor technology. In the future Yole sees Cu-Cu /oxide hybrid bonding, such as that developed by Ziptronix, as the technology of choice to replace fusion bonding due to its superior electrical and mechanical properties.

For LEDs grown on GaAs or sapphire substrates thermo-compression and eutectic bonding are most often applied.

Fusion bonding is the technology of choice for SOI activities.  While the recent SOI market has been flat, due to AMDs recent move from SOI to bulk SI technology, Yole expects the SOI market to double by 2015 due to Rf applications making use of SOI.

EVG currently holds 75% of the permanent bonding equipment market. Yole sees them being challenged in the future by the recently combined TEL / Applied Materials. TEL has gained market share in 2013. Suss MicroTec, exited the market in 2013 after supplying permanent bonders for more than a decade.

Companies cited in this report include: AMD, AML, Applied Materials, Avago, Bosch, Discera, EVG, Infineon, Invensense, Lemoptix, Luxtera, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Murata/VTI, Nemotek, OSRAM, PlanOptik, Samsung, Sensonor, SOITEC, STMicroelectronics, SUSS MicroTec, Sony, Teledyne/Dalsa, Tokyo Electron, Ziptronix, IMEC, Leti, Texas Instruments, Tezzaron, WiSpry and Ziptronix.

The report was written by Amandine Pizzagalli who is responsible for equipment and materials for Yole’s Advanced Packaging team.

Berger Pierre-DamienBy Pierre-Damien Berger, VP Business Development & Communication; CEA-Leti

Whatever forecast one uses for the future of the Internet of Things in terms of connected objects or business opportunities, the IoT will be big. Citing industry sources during of “The Internet of Things: from sensors to zero power,” the recent LetiDays conference in Grenoble, France, speakers offered projections venturing up to 50 billion connected objects by 2020.

Jacques Husser, COO of SIGFOX, said the IoT is the next major technological revolution, and that connecting billions or trillions of devices and enabling them to communicate with each other and will require more than high bandwidth. While increasing bandwidth is a key focus for multi-media and voice data network operators, for IoT companies reducing energy consumption and costs are key to handling the continuous volume of small messages from all those things.

SIGFOX, whose network is dedicated to the IoT, provides power-efficient, two-way wireless connectivity for IoT and machine-to-machine communications. Husser said the company’s technology is compatible with existing chipsets from vendors such as Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics, Silicon Labs, Atmel, NXP and Semtech. Husser said that while SIGFOX’s technology complements 2G, 3G and 4G systems, it does not require a SIM card. Devices’ IP addresses are established during manufacturing.

The company, which has networks operating or in rollout with partners in several countries and major cities, is enabling applications for building and vehicle security, indoor climate monitoring, pet tracking, smart-city apps for parking and lighting management, asset management including billboard monitoring, water utility metering, and health-care apps like fall detection, distress signaling and medicine dispensing. Many more are expected.

Leti’s RF design and antenna expertise were used to help connect SIGFOX’s cellular networks. In addition, Leti is working with other startups and SMEs to develop and connect smart functions in a variety of products that will use the IoT to communicate. Primo1D was spun out of Leti in 2013 to produce E-Thread®, an innovative microelectronic packaging technology that embeds LEDs, RFIDs or sensors in fabric and materials for integration in textiles and plastics using standard production tools.

Leti startup BeSpoon recently launched SpoonPhone, a smartphone equipped with the capability to locate tagged items within a few centimeters’ accuracy. The capability is enabled by an impulse radio ultra-wideband (IR-UWB) integrated circuit developed by Leti and BeSpoon. Leti and Cityzen Sciences, the award-winning designer and developer of smart-sensing products, have begun a project to take the company’s technology to the next level by integrating micro-sensors in textiles during the weaving stage.

Leti and CORIMA, a leading supplier of carbon-composite wheels and frames for track and road-racing cyclists, are developing an integrated sensor system to measure the power output of riders as they pedal.

Citing research by Morgan Stanley Research, Leti’s telecommunications department head Dominique Noguet noted that worldwide shipments of smartphones and tablets exceeded shipments of desktop and notebook PCs for the first time in 2011. This signaled that the web has gone mobile, a fact underscored by a Cisco forecast that M2M mobile data traffic will increase 24x from 24 petabytes per month in 2012 to 563 petabytes in 2017.

Noguet said the IoT growth will present scaling challenges and require new communication protocols for sporadic, asynchronous, decentralized, low-power traffic. In addition to harvesting, or scavenging, energy to assure continuous connectivity, there will be demand for technologies that enable spectrum scavenging in unlicensed spectra, for example, and that use new bands, such as millimeter wave, white spaces and even light.

Leti has numerous ways to support development of the IoT, ranging from embedding antennas in specific materials through characterization and design, to implementing full-blown custom radio technologies. The inclusion of UHF RFID tags for the tire industry was cited as a first example where read/write range performances were a challenge. Leti’s ultra-wideband localization technology is another example where competence in signal processing, real-time design, antenna technology and mixed RF/digital ASIC design was combined to provide a complete solution where no off-the-shelf approach was available.

Noguet also noted potential threats to IoT security, and cited Leti’s involvement in the Santander, Spain, smart city project, which includes experimental advanced research on IoT technologies. Leti and CEA-List were in charge of securing access to the SmartSantander infrastructure and communications over a wireless sensor network. This included ensuring the security of the transactions and protecting users’ privacy.