Category Archives: Displays

Global flat-panel television shipments fell by 10 percent in February and by an estimated 4 percent in March compared to the same months in 2012 as Chinese demand plunged following the Lunar New Year buying season.

Global shipments of flat-panel display (FPD) televisions amounted to 12.6 million units in February, down from 14 million one year earlier, according to the Monthly Worldwide FPD TV Shipment Data Report from the IHS TV Systems Intelligence Service at information and analytics provider IHS. Shipments fell by another 4 percent in March, according to a preliminary estimate, as shown in the figure below.

flat panel TV shipments plunge

The FPD market consists of liquid crystal display (LCD) and plasma televisions.

“Worldwide television shipments usually decline in February compared to January because of the shortness of the month and the conclusion of the Chinese Lunar New Year shopping season,” said Jusy Hong, senior analyst, television research, for IHS. “However, global shipments in February this year also dropped sharply on a year-over-year basis because of the weak results in China. This drastic change illustrates the rising influence of the Chinese market on the worldwide television business. Chinese companies this year are expected to account for more than 20 percent of global LCD-TV production.”

Rising ratings for Chinese TV makers

Chinese-based companies in January shipped 31 percent of worldwide LCD TVs, marking the first time that the country surpassed South Korea to take the global lead. However, China slid back to second place in February, with its share dropping to 18 percent.

Read more: Global LCD TV shipments fall for the first time

LCD TV shipments by Chinese-based TV brands declined drastically in February after the end of one of the country’s biggest sales seasons ever. And despite strong sales for the Lunar New Year, inventory issues in the country remain a problem. This contributed to declining LCD panel procurement among Chinese TV makers in January and February.

Big TVs achieve bigger shipments

Global shipments of large-sized televisions are increasing very quickly, especially for the 50-inch and larger sets, based on analysts of shipments from the world’s top 14 brands.

Comparing February 2013 to the same month in 2012, worldwide shipments of 50-inch-and-larger-sized TVs increased to 10 percent, double the 5 percent last year.

In particular, the 50- through 55-inch segment also rose to 3 percent, up from zero during the same period. Moreover, 60-inch and larger size TV shipments are increasing rapidly. Shipments for this segment totaled 240,000 units so far this year, up 100,000 units from 150,000 units in 2012. These sets accounted for 3 percent of the total LCD TV shipments in February.

Read more: OLEDS and the beginning of the end for LCDs

“TV brands are aggressively expanding their lineups and shipments of super-large-sized TVs in order to improve the profitability of their TV businesses,” Hong said. “Panel manufacturers also are following suit, resulting in decreasing prices for both panels and TV sets.”

Midsize sets see mixed results

Meanwhile, medium -sized TVs in the 15- though 29-inch range lost share worldwide, with their portion of the market declining to 10 percent in February, down from 15 percent during the same month the previous year. The share of 32-inch sets, which account for the biggest portion of the global market, also dropped to 40 percent, down from 42 percent during the same period in 2012.

Meanwhile, new sizes such as the 39-inch and 50-inch made a successful entry into the worldwide TV market. The 35- through 39-inch segment, which includes the popular 39-inch size, doubled its portion of the market to 6 percent.

Despite stronger-than-expected growth during the fourth quarter, 2012 was still a miserable year for the semiconductor market and suppliers, with only eight out of the Top 25 chipmakers managing to eke out revenue growth—but nine suffering double-digit declines.

Global semiconductor revenue in 2012 declined by 2.2 percent from 2011, according to final results from the IHS iSuppli Competitive Landscaping Tool (CLT) from information and analytics provider IHS. The preliminary forecast issued by IHS in December projected a drop of 2.3 percent.

The modest improvement in the final results came from year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter that came in slightly better than estimated, topping out at a 2.8 percent increase. The preliminary estimate had predicted a 1.9 percent expansion. 

Read more: When is the semiconductor industry expected to recover?

“The last three months were the only quarter in 2012 that generated a year-over-year increase in semiconductor market revenue, but that growth was too little and too late to salvage a terrible year for chipmakers,” said Dale Ford, senior director at IHS. “Even so, the stronger performance in the fourth quarter represents a positive signal for the semiconductor market, marking the beginning of a new growth cycle in the industry that will be sustained though 2013. IHS predicts global semiconductor revenue will rise by 5.6 percent in 2013, bringing an end to the slump of 2012.”

Semiconductor body count

Semiconductor industry growth in 2012 slipped from stagnation in the first half to a slump in the second half, widely affecting various players in the market.

Among the Top 25 suppliers, the only companies to expand revenue in 2012 were No. 2 Samsung, No. 3 Qualcomm, No. 9 Broadcom, No. 11 Sony, No. 14 NXP, No.15 nVidia, No.18 MediaTek and No. 24 LSI, as presented in the attached table.

The remaining 17 suppliers suffered revenue declines. Companies whose revenue fell by double-digit percentages were No. 4 Texas Instruments, No. 5 Toshiba, No. 6 Renesas, No. 8 STMicroelectronics, No. 12 Advanced Micro Devices, No. 16 Freescale, No. 17 Elpida, No. 21 Panasonic and No. 22 On Semiconductor.

“The semiconductor downturn had an extremely broad impact, as global economic uncertainty and weakness affected companies across all regions as well as the vast majority of products and application markets,” Ford observed. “Almost every major semiconductor product market suffered a decline in 2012, with double-digit drops in the major memory and discrete categories.” 

Merger dirge

With semiconductor suppliers’ financial condition so weak, merger and acquisition (M&A) activity among the top companies was nearly non-existent in 2012—a stark contrast to the high level of activity seen in 2011.

The only major purchase was Samsung’s acquisition of a 100 percent share of the Samsung LED business from Samsung Electro-Mechanics. The results of all other top companies were not meaningfully impacted by M&A activity.

Silver linings playbook

While there was plenty of bad news in the 2012 semiconductor market, the most dramatic change for any single semiconductor supplier was actually a positive development: Qualcomm’s nearly 30 percent surge in revenue.

Qualcomm’s revenue growth of 29.2 percent launched it to the No. 3 rank in the global semiconductor market in 2012, up from No. 6 in 2011.  Its share of the semiconductor market grew by a full percentage point to 4.3 percent, up from 3.3 percent.

“In two years, Qualcomm has risen from No. 9 to No. 3 in the semiconductor rankings,” Ford noted. “This is the strongest ascension through the top ranks by any semiconductor company in recent history. Qualcomm continues to capitalize on the robust growth of semiconductor sales to the strong market for wireless devices including smartphones and media tablets.”

Only two other companies among the Top 25 achieved double-digit growth: LSI, with 22.6 percent; and Sony, with 21.8 percent. These expansions were notable achievements in such a tough market environment.

Semiconductor surprises

The bright spots in an otherwise dismal year for semiconductor growth were found in CMOS image sensors, logic ASICs, LEDs, display drivers and sensors. Growth in CMOS image sensors hit 38.8 percent, followed by logic ASICs at 19.0 percent. LEDs also expanded in the double digits at 11.9 percent. Meanwhile, growth came in at 6.9 percent for display drivers and at 6.1 percent for sensors and actuators.

The only other categories to sustain increases were logic ASSPs and standard logic components.

“Robust growth in smartphones and media tablets was key to driving growth opportunities for logic ASICs, CMOS image sensors and sensors essential to enabling new and attractive features in the exciting wireless market. LEDs also have been boosted by their continued adoption in LCD TV backlight and general purpose lighting applications.”

U.S. television shipments are forecast to decline for a second year in a row in 2013, but growth will resume next year as the liquid crystal display television (LCD TV) segment regains some of the strength it had lost in the past year.

Shipments in 2013 of televisions into the U.S. market will amount to a projected 36.6 million units, compared to 37.6 million last year, according to an IHS iSuppli U.S. Television Market Tracker Report from information and analytics provider IHS. The anticipated 2.7 percent contraction will be smaller than the 5.8 percent slide suffered by the industry in 2012 when domestic TV shipments retreated from 39.9 million units in 2011. However, it will mean that shipments will have declined for two straight years by the time 2013 is over.

Despite the current negative picture, the industry is poised to see expansion return next year as shipments tick up to 37.8 million units, marking the beginning of at least a four-year run of steady growth, as shown in the below figure.

US TV market

“U.S. television demand is being hit by the double whammy of the plunge in both the plasma and LCD TV segments,” said Veronica Thayer, analyst for consumer electronics & technology at IHS. “After peaking in 2010, plasma sales now are on a terminal decline. Meanwhile, the mature U.S. LCD TV market contracted in 2012 as most consumers already own one or more sets.”

Plasma TV shipments last year shrank a steep 24 percent to 3.6 million units compared to their 2011 level, and LCD TV shipments descended 3 percent to 33.8 million units.

But while plasma shipments will continue to be down this year as part of an irreversible trend toward extinction, LCD TV shipments will be up 3 percent, reversing the losses of last year and coming close to the segment’s 2011 shipment level. LCD TV shipments will grow another 6 percent next year, pulling the overall U.S. TV space out of its slump.

Meanwhile, the introduction of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) televisions will start to work its magic on the industry, especially because the advanced sets will sport perfect black colors and much thinner profiles than already slim-based LED-backlit sets. South Korea’s LG Electronics and Samsung Electronics will lob the first volleys in the first half of 2013 by each launching 55-inch models—first previewed in January at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, and vastly different from the tiny 11- and 15-inch OLED TVs shown several years ago.

A total of just 56,000 OLED TVs will ship cumulatively in 2013 and 2014, with sets commanding extremely high retail pricing because of a lack of large-scale manufacturing. But shipment numbers will grow quickly from 2014 onward, jumping to 370,000 by 2015, and then surging to 1.9 million units by 2017. Revenue from OLED TVs could reach as much as 21 percent of the total TV market revenue for that year.

Owing to the high retail price of OLED TVs, this display type will account for a larger percentage of revenue compared to shipments in the total U.S. TV market.

The polarizer market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6 percent until 2016 to $12 billion in 2013 and to $14 billion in 2016. In 2012, the market amounted to $11.2 billion, up 9 percent year on year, according to “Polarizer Market and Industry Trend Analysis” published by Displaybank, recently acquired by IHS Inc. Polarizers used for large size TFT-LCDs, such as TV, monitors, and laptops, made up 77 percent of the market, amounting to $8.6 billion, and this figure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4 percent to $9.9 billion in 2016. However, the TFT-LCD segment will lose its share of the market, falling to 71 percent in 2016, as manufactures scale up their smartphones and other mobile devices and increase their volume. 

polarizer market TFT-LCD

The polarizer market can be characterized by the three powers: Nitto Denko, LG Chem, and Sumitomo. The biggest characteristic is that each company has different applications in which they excel at according to their own technical skills, competitiveness of securing component supplies, and production capacity. By major application, the LCD TV market has the largest share, with the manufacturing leaders being Nitto Denko (33 percent), Sumitomo (28 percent), and LG Chem (27 percent). These three companies combined make up 88 percent of the market for polarizers used in TVs. In the laptop segment that highly requires for thin panels, Sumitomo leads with 53 percent, with Cheil Industry and Nitto Denko taking the next two spots with 14 percent each. In the monitor segment, where prices matter, LG Chem leads with a 43 percent market share, and CMMT, Cheil Industry, and BQM are on its heels with 16 percent, 15 percent, and 11 percent, respectively. Polarizers for tablet PCs are getting the spotlight these days, and Nitto Denko is dominant in that segment with 62 percent, being the exclusive supplier to Apple for the iPad series. Next to Nitto Denko, LG Chem is the runner-up with a 24 percent share. 

Displaybank’s “Polarizer Market and Industry Trend Analysis” report analyzes the polarizer market forecast until 2016; production line status of polarizer maker; supply chain; and pricing trends. The report also analyzes polarizers’ sub-film market—TAC, PVA, PET protective film, release film, anti-reflective film, and replacement film—for a better understanding of the polarizer market where the competition for high value added film production has become more intense.

It’s no secret that Samsung is up against Apple in many ways, in products, sales and innovation. However, even in the face of Apple’s patent infringement lawsuits, Samsung is still climbing the charts. The electronics giant sold approximately $53 billion in revenue in the last quarter of 2012, in comparison to Apple’s $36 billion in revenue, though the profit margins both companies are seeing were relatively similar. And while Bloomberg is predicting Apple will post its lowest sales increase since 2009, Samsung is reportedly poised for big growth in a number of sectors.  

Samsung grabs No. 3 foundry spot

Samsung jumped into the foundry scene in mid-2010, and quickly became one of the anticipated long-term leaders in the sector. It’s now easily the biggest IDM foundry operation, with sales nearly 10 times that of IBM, IC Insights noted in January. IC Insights’ August update projected Samsung finishing in fourth place just behind UMC, separated by about $400 million, but anticipated Samsung surpassing the Taiwan rival in 2013.

Samsung followed a sparkling 82 percent growth in 2011 by nearly doubling sales again to $4.33 billion, putting it just shy of GLOBALFOUNDRIES which grew sales a solid 31 percent last year to $4.56B. In fact IC Insights believes Samsung will challenge GLOBALFOUNDRIES for the No.2 spot before 2013 is done, leveraging its leading-edge capacity and huge capital spending budget. With dedicated IC foundry capacity reaching 150,000 300mm wafers/month by 4Q12, and an average revenue/wafer of $3000, Samsung’s IC foundry capacity could pull down $5.4B in annual sales, the analyst firm calculates.

How did Samsung get so big so fast in the foundry business? It supplied chips to nearly half of the industry’s 750 million smartphones shipped in 2012 — application processors for the 220 million of its own handsets in 2012, plus the 133 million iPhones Apple shipped.

Thanks to the Galaxy S4, Samsung has 99% of the AMOLED market

Samsung has invested a considerable amount into the AMOLED market, which is now poised for steady growth, thanks to a growing demand for high-end smartphones and tablets. According to Forbes contributor Haydn Shaughnessy, Samsung now holds 99% of the AMOLED market.

AMOLED display shipments for mobile handset applications are expected to grow to 447.7 million units in 2017, up from 195.1 million units in 2013, according to insights from the IHS iSuppli Emerging Displays Service at information and analytics provider IHS. Within the mobile handset display market, the market share for AMOLED displays is forecast to grow from 7.9% in 2013 to 15.2 percent in 2017, as presented in the figure below. AMOLED’s market share for 4-inch or larger handset displays employed in smartphones is set to increase to 24.4% in 2017, up from 23.0% in 2013.

“Because of their use in marquee products like the Galaxy S4, high-quality AMOLEDs are growing in popularity and gaining share at the expense of liquid crystal display (LCD) screens,” said Vinita Jakhanwal, director for mobile & emerging displays and technology at IHS. “These attractive AMOLEDs are part of a growing trend of large-sized, high-resolution displays used in mobile devices. With the S4 representing the first time that a full high-definition (HD) AMOLED has been used in mobile handsets, Samsung continues to raise the profile of this display technology.”

Samsung anticipates MEMS pressure sensor market boom

Samsung has been ahead of its time in its adoption of MEMS pressure sensors, anticipating the state of the market and getting a jump on the competition.

Global shipments of MEMS pressure sensors in cellphones are set to rise to 681 million units in 2016, up more than eightfold from 82 million in 2012, according to the IHS iSuppli MEMS & Sensors Service at information and analytics provider IHS. Shipments this year are expected to double to 162 million units, as presented in the attached figure, primarily due to Samsung’s usage of pressure sensors in the Galaxy S4 and other smartphone models.

“Samsung is the only major original equipment manufacturer (OEM) now using pressure sensors in all its flagship smartphone models,” said Jérémie Bouchaud, director and senior principal analyst for MEMS and sensors at IHS. “The pressure device represents just one component among a wealth of different sensors used in the S4.”

Besides Samsung, few other OEMs have been using pressure sensors in smartphones. The only other smartphone OEMs to use pressure sensors in their products are Sony Mobile in a couple of models in 2012, and a few Chinese vendors, like Xiaomi.

Apple, which pioneered the use of MEMS sensors in smartphones, does not employ pressure sensors at the moment in the iPhone. However, IHS expects Apple will start them in 2014, which will contribute to another doubling of the market in 2014 to 325 million units.

But what about the patent infringement suit?

Six months after Samsung was ordered to pay an unprecedented $1.05 billion to Apple in the notorious patent infringement suit, Judge Lucy Koh, the federal judge presiding over two Apple v. Samsung cases in California, entered an order striking $450 million from the damages award determined by a jury in August 2012. This corresponds to 14 of the 28 Samsung products in question in the initial lawsuit. Koh disagreed with the notice date provided by Apple concerning its patents-in-suit, and, as a result, a new damages trial must be held, most likely after the appellate proceedings, which were sought by both parties.

The new trial could mean good news or bad news for Samsung. There is the possibility that the court could rule in favor of a reduction of damages to be paid. However, it is also just as likely that the court could rule Samsung owe Apple even more than the original $1.05 billion ordered in August.

Some analysts have speculated that, if the suit holds, consumers could see a jump in prices of Samsung, Google and Android devices. Only time will tell if will a price that the masses will be willing to pay. If it is, don’t expect to see Samsung slowing down any time soon.

Ditch the 3D glasses. Thanks to a simple plastic filter, mobile device users can now view unprecedented, distortion-free, brilliant 3D content with the naked eye. This latest innovation from TP and IMRE is the first ever glasses-free 3D accessory that can display content in both portrait and landscape mode, and measures less than 0.1 mm in thickness.

“The filter is essentially a piece of plastic film with about half a million perfectly shaped lenses engineered onto its surface using IMRE’s proprietary nanoimprinting technology,” said Dr. Jaslyn Law, the IMRE scientist who worked with TP on the nanoimprinting R&D since 2010 to enhance the film’s smoothness, clarity and transparency compared to other films in the market.

To complement the filter, the team developed applications for two software platforms, Apple iOS and Android, which allow users to play 3D content through its filter, in both landscape and portrait formats. The applications also allow 2D pictures taken using mobile devices to be converted into 3D. The team will be releasing a software development kit that enables game developers to convert their existing games into 3D versions.

The team is also exploring using the same technology for security access tokens to decode PIN numbers sent online as an inexpensive and portable alternative to rival bulkier and more expensive battery-operated security tokens, similar to those used by Singapore banks today.

“The team’s expertise in both hardware and software development in 3D technology has enabled high quality 3D to be readily available to consumers,” said Frank Chan, the TP scientist who led the overall NRF-funded project. “We have taken age old lenticular lens technology that has been around for the last hundred years, modernized it and patented it using nanotechnology.”

Lenticular lens technology creates a transparent film that retains the brilliance of 3D visuals and effects, which does away with the need for stronger back lighting and saves on battery consumption in mobile devices.

“The successful development of this product is indeed testimony that we have been able to bridge the gap between R&D and commercialisation in the area of 3D interactive digital media (IDM), aided by the NRF Translational R&D Grant and gap funding from A*STAR,” said Lay-Tan Siok Lie, Deputy Principal of TP.

The two-year project was initially funded under a National Research Foundation (NRF) Translational R&D Grant in Dec 2010 to look at optimizing the control of the nanostructures and integrating its effects with the complementary software applications. The team has since shifted its focus towards commercialization with support from Exploit Technologies  Pte  Ltd  (ETPL),  A*STAR’s  technology transfer  arm and a one-stop resource that brings together home-grown technology, funding, collaboration and networks to assist A*STAR spin-offs and start-ups.

“Our breakthrough is a game-changing piece of plastic that simply fits onto current smartphones or tablets to give users breathtaking 3D graphics on their smart devices. This removable plastic also opens up a multitude of opportunities for anyone wanting to create affordable premium 3D content and games for quick adoption to existing portable devices easily,” said Nanoveu Pte Ltd Founder and CEO, Alfred Chong.

The start-up is licensing the technology exclusively from ETPL and TP, and is currently securing the interest of local and overseas customers and investors.

“The success of this project is typical of what IMRE aims to do – innovate and turn science into an exciting business opportunity. I’m glad this has given us products that make life just a little bit more fun,” said Andy Hor, Executive Director of IMRE.

Nanosys, enabling a new generation of high color fidelity, energy-efficient displays with its quantum-dot technology, today announced that it has expanded into a new, high-capacity production facility in Milpitas, California.

Nanosys’ new 60,000 square foot facility will produce over 1,000 kilograms of quantum dots per year- enough material to build more than five million 55" quantum dot televisions. As part of the expansion Nanosys expects to create more than 50 next-generation manufacturing jobs in the South Bay.

Nanosys’ latest product, Quantum Dot Enhancement Film (QDEF), is a drop-in optical component for LCDs that creates a richer, more lifelike color experience while consuming less power than alternatives. Nanosys is working closely with supply chain partner 3M to ramp deliveries as demand for QDEF from global display manufacturers increases.

"You’ve never seen anything like a quantum dot display," said Jason Hartlove, President and CEO of Nanosys. "We are working with display makers to create a new high color gamut display experience that is more cost effective, efficient and reliable than anything else currently on the market. The response from manufacturers so far has been great and demand for QDEF has grown to the point that we’ve had to significantly expand manufacturing to keep up."

The move was made official yesterday at a ribbon cutting ceremony attended by U.S. Congressman and long-time nanotechnology advocate Mike Honda of the 17th district and Milpitas Mayor Jose Esteves.

"Advanced manufacturing is a driving force creating Silicon Valley jobs, and I welcome Nanosys Inc.’s expansion to their new 60,000 square foot manufacturing facility in Milpitas," said Silicon Valley Congressman Mike Honda.  "As my Blue Ribbon Task Force on Nanotechnology made clear, nanotechnology offers Silicon Valley the opportunity to be at the forefront of technologically disruptive industries.  I applaud Nanosys for displaying the fortitude and ingenuity to grow from a startup to manufacturing commercial products, qualities that are so prevalent in Silicon Valley.  It is this kind of innovation that will keep the United States competitive in the global marketplace."

LCD panel makers in Taiwan, Japan and Korea have been suffering. Despite the growing demand for LCDs the high number of panel makers and new competition from China has resulted in tough price competition for panel makers, to the point that many panel makers are no longer profitable. In 2012, Samsung Electronics moved their LCD business units into a separate entity. One report suggests that the Taiwanese have invested $60 billion in the LCD industry and seen a return of just $40 billion. Some Japanese makers, despite having superb technology, have seen recent losses in some cases equal cumulative profits of the preceeding five to ten years. Restructuring is, therefore, afoot. In the last few weeks, Samsung purchased a three percent stake in Sharp. Japan Display Inc (JDI), puts together small and mid-sized LCD panel manufacture units from Sony, Hitachi and Toshiba, focusing on automotive, cellphone and digital camera displays (not TV). Meanwhile, the Chinese are quickly moving into LCD panel production. For many years the top five in the LCD business, in order, were Samsung, LG Display, Innolux, AUO and Sharp. Now, as evidence of China’s progress, in late 2012 Chinese BOE is No. 5 for notebooks and monitors and China Star (CSOT) No. 5 for TVs.

 All this has driven panel makers to seek differentiation. 3D capability was one – albeit with mixed consumer interest. Now, the hot topics are OLED and high resolution LCDs (4K).

OLED TVs pose a tough manufacturing challenge, but then the winners will be the ones to address the tough options. The current approach being taken by some of the leading panel makers are as follows, but the situation is fluid.

  • Samsung = RGB and polysilicon TFT backplane – recently announced it is reviewing other options
  • LG = white OLED with colour filters and IGZO TFT backplane
  • Panasonic = Inkjet printed RGB with CDT/Sumitomo materials + AUO TFT substrate
  • Sony = RGB Top emission and gap filters + AUO TFT substrate

The different approaches mean little cross fertilization of know-how or equipment. Certainly the Koreans have appeared to be a long way ahead, at least for smaller sized OLED displays, but for TVs perhaps not as far as one thought. The question is whether Panasonic or Sony have the appetite to make the large investments needed. Investments from Samsung and LG are as follows:

  • Samsung invested $4.8 billion in 2011, $6 billion in 2012, and will invest $4 billion in 2013. It has sold more than 100 million OLED displays used in the Galaxy S series alone
  • LG invested $225 million in 2010, planned investment of approx. $2.8 billion in 2012, of that $1.9 billion in R&D related to OLED.
  • The first OLED TVs are available from LG now – albeit priced at ~ $10,000. Sales will be limited at this price point for the immediate years.

The technically easier differentiation is to move to higher resolution LCD TV – e.g. 4K. Film makers are adopting suitable resolution cameras and so content will be available. Critics say that most cannot see the difference, but in reality consumers like to future proof as they expect a TV to last for many years – many bought HD TVs but still do not watch HD content. The higher resolution will benefit PC monitors and console gaming experiences too. In the short term, therefore, IDTechEx Research expects that 4K LCD TV sales – which will be more readably available – will sell more units than OLED TV.

OLED TV is undoubtedly promising but, as OLEDs for smaller sized displays – it will take longer than originally thought for these to become dominant, given the technical challenges faced. Given that many LCD makers are losing money, how will they fund investment in new innovation? Indeed, Taiwanese companies are asking the government now for financial help to fund R&D on OLEDs.

Those hoping that OLED TVs would result in new factories and new equipment orders may find the opportunities are not quite as big as they had hoped – with companies expected to repurpose existing aSi TFT plants to IGZO TFT manufacture. This looks good on paper, but switching a factory involves taking an otherwise revenue producing plant offline, and setting up and achieving a satisfactory yield is not trivial, as Sharp has recently found. Panel makers, having typically spent 65 percent of the cost of LCDs on the materials alone, have ambitions to move up the supply chain, even making materials.

 Potential scenarios for OLED TV

One scenario is that a small number of panel makers may come to dominate OLEDs – which could likely be Samsung and LG, both enjoying strong profits. Another is that the LCD industry repeats itself again with OLEDs – with many panel makers and therefore the inevitable range of profitable and loss making panel makers that go with it. One could postulate that the Taiwanese may not be a major player in OLEDs (and indeed their LCD businesses will see a shakeout); Japan’s conglomerates have the potential to be major players but it depends now on their ability to fund it as needed; which leaves the mighty two in Korea. And the Chinese.

Stung by plunging sales in Japan and declining demand in North America and Western Europe, global television shipments in 2012 fell, marking a major inflection point that will have a lasting impact on the market, according to an IHS iSuppli Worldwide Television Market Tracker Report from the IHS TV Systems Intelligence Service at information and analytics provider IHS.

Global shipments of all kinds of televisions in 2012 amounted to 238.5 million units, down 6.3 percent from 254.6 million in 2011. Shipments aren’t expected to rise back to the 2011 level until 2015, when they will amount to 253.1 million units.

Global TV market won't recover until 2015

“Television shipments in 2012 declined for the first time for more than a decade, sounding the coda for the flat-panel replacement wave that deluged the business throughout the 2000s,” said Tom Morrod, TV systems analyst at IHS. “This event marked a fundamental change in the growth trajectory of the market, with flat or minimal increases in shipments expected in the coming years—a sharp contrast to the double-digit increases seen prior to 2010. While some specific events contributed to the downturn of 2012, such as the fall of sales to the Japanese market, the decline reflects a fundamental slowdown in the television market, with liquid crystal display television (LCD TV) shipments falling for the first time ever. Although television shipments will stabilize in 2013 and growth will return in 2014, developed markets have become saturated with flat-panel televisions.”

Television market hits a wall in 2012

The TV market had been undergoing a slowdown prior to 2012, with shipments rising by 11.6 percent in 2010 and decelerating to 1 percent in 2011. By the beginning of this decade, most consumers in developed regions already had replaced their old cathode-ray tube (CRT) sets with flat-panel models, and many buyers in emerging economies had also made the switch. Combined with economic factors, and with issues related to government subsidies and the analog transition, the slowdown of the flat-panel replacement trend contributed to the major downturn in 2012.

The North American and Western European regions in 2012 both experienced significant shipment declines. Meanwhile, growth stalled in Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Eastern Europe and China were the only regions to continue to enjoy rising shipments

The biggest reduction occurred in Japan, where shipments fell by 13.5 million units in 2012, accounting for the vast majority of the global decline of 16.0 million.

Point shaving

The decline in Japan was due to the end of the country’s “eco-points” subsidy program. Starting in mid-2009, the program gave consumers points for buying energy-efficient products—such as light-emitting diode (LED)-backlit LCD TVs. These points could then be redeemed to buy other items.

Between 2009 and 2011, eco-points generated an additional 25 million television sets sold in the Japanese market. With the revocation of this artificial stimulus, demand declined in 2012, and the Japanese TV market will continue to be severely affected for the next five years.

Regional woes

The decline in Western Europe was predominantly due to the economic situation, combined with the analog switch-off. Markets such as France, Italy and Spain have experienced severe declines following analog broadcast switch-offs in 2010 and 2011. At the same time, there were declines in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Portugal and Greece because of financial challenges.

There was, however, some growth generated by the more prosperous Central European nations, with Germany in particular still continuing to show impressive growth.

In North America, the decline was caused by a mixture of economic factors and by the fact that consumers had increased their demand in 2010 and 2011. By 2012, however, buyers had expended their disposable income for television purchases.

Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific market stalled because of lower growth than expected in India, together with declining sales in established markets such as Australia.

The Middle East and Africa continued their overall growth, but strife in certain countries—particularly Syria—had a negative impact on television shipments.

Television market rebounds in 2014

In 2013, the global TV market will stabilize, with shipments remaining flat compared to 2012, as economic conditions even out. Shipments will rise by a scant 0.3 percent for the year.

However, shipments will return to growth in 2014 with a 2.8 percent increase. The Football World Cup, to be held in Brazil, will boost Latin America sales, while China is expected to continue to prosper.

By 2017, global television shipments will rise to 270.5 million units for a number of reasons—as Chinese manufacturers flood the Asia-Pacific markets with new models; as Japan, North America and Western Europe continue to recover; and as ultra-high-definition (UHD) and organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV uptake becomes more affordable.

LCDs fall for first time

The LCD TV market fell for the first time ever on an annual basis in 2012, with shipments declining to 209.8 million units, down slightly from 211.3 million in 2011. However, shipments are expected to return to growth and continue expanding through 2017 as new technologies like Smart TV and UHD increases.

Plasma TV shipments fell to 13.1 million units in 2012, down from 17.9 million 2011. This is partly due to Panasonic significantly reducing its supply of plasma televisions, and partly due to large-sized LCD displays becoming increasingly cost effective. North America continues to be a stronghold for plasma, as does China, but all regions experienced an annual decline in shipments. By 2017, it is anticipated that Plasma will be a niche product, and that the market will have almost completely transitioned to LCD TV and to OLED.

CRT-TV shipments slid to 15.5 million, down nearly 40 percent from 25.2 million in 2011. Global CRT shipments will cease by 2016, IHS expects.

Quantum dots will cascade into the marketplace. They offer lower cost, longer life, and brighter lighting, according to WinterGreen Research’s  new study Quantum Dot and Quantum Dot Display (QLED) Market Shares, Strategy, and Forecasts, Worldwide, 2013 to 2019.  

“The commercialization of quantum dots using kilogram quantity mass production is a game-changer,” said Susan Eustis, WinterGreen analyst. “High quality, high quantity and lowest price quantum dots increase product quality in every industry. The rate of change means speeded products cycles are evolving.”

Once manufacturers learn to integrate higher efficiency luminescent quantum dots into their products, each vendor will need to follow or dramatically lose market share, reports WinterGreen. This level of change brought by quantum dot and quantum dot displays (QLED) represents a new paradigm that will create new industries, products and jobs in science and industry. The list of possible quantum dot applications is ever expanding. New applications are waiting for the availability of more evolved quantum dots.

Quantum Dot LED (QLED) commercial focus has remained on key optical applications: Optical component lasers are emerging as a significant market. LED backlighting for LCD displays, LED general lighting, and solar power quantum dots are beginning to reach the market. Vendors continue to evaluate other applications.

Quantum dots QDs are minute particles or nano-particles in the range of 2nm to 10nm diameter. Quantum dots are tiny bits of semiconductor crystals with optical properties that are determined by their material composition. Their size is small to the nanoparticle level. They are made through a synthesis process. QD Vision synthesizes these materials in solution, and formulates them into inks and films. Quantum Dot LEDs (QLED) enable performance and cost benefits.

The quantum dot cannot be seen with the naked eye, because it is an extremely tiny semiconductor nanocrystal. The nanocrystal is a particle having a particle size of less than 10nm. QDs have great potential as light-emitting materials for next-generation displays with highly saturated colors because of high quantum efficiency, sharp spectral resolution, and easy wavelength tenability. Because QDs convert light to current, QDs have uses in other applications, including solar cells, photo detectors, and image sensors.

QLED displays are anticipated to be more efficient than LCDs and OLEDs. They are cheaper to make. Samsung estimates that they cost less than half of what it costs to make LCDs or OLED panels. QLED quantum dot display is better than OLED. It is brighter, cheaper, and saves more energy. Energy-savings is a strong feature. Its power consumption is 1/5 to 1/10 of the LCD’s Samsung offers now. Manufacturing costs of a display are less than half of OLED or LCD. It has a significantly longer life than the OLED.

QLED quantum dot display uses active matrix to control the opening and closing of the pixels of each color. Quantum dots have to use a thin film transistor. Emission from quantum dots is due to light or electrical stimulation. The quantum dots are able to produce different colors depending on the quantum shape and size used in the production of materials.

Dow Electronic Materials, a business unit of The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) and Nanoco Group plc (AIM: NANO) have a global licensing agreement for Nanoco’s cadmium-free quantum dot technology. Under the terms of the agreement, Dow Electronic Materials will have exclusive worldwide rights for the sale, marketing and manufacture of Nanoco’s cadmium-free quantum dots for use in electronic displays.