Category Archives: Editors Picks

December 14, 2012 – Joining the growing chorus of industry watchers lowering their outlooks on the semiconductor sector, Gartner has reduced both its 2012 and 2013 forecasts for semiconductor sales but is remarkably more bullish on prospects in 2014.

"The looming fiscal cliff, ongoing European debt crisis, slower emerging market growth and regional tensions have all played a part in reduced growth projections for semiconductor revenue in both 2012 and 2013," stated Peter Middleton, principal analyst at Gartner. He also pointed to an inventory buildup; levels were already high, and with softness in PC demand, "simply overshot demand."

The firm now sees global semiconductor revenues slipping by -3% in 2012 to $298B, vs. its previous expectation of essentially flat back in September. Chip sales in 2013 will increase about 4.5% in 2013 to $311B, instead of the expected 6.9% climb to $330B.

Beyond PC chip demand, another dent to the market was continued softness in DRAM pricing; Gartner thinks this won’t recover until 2H13 with supply slowing down and actually creating undersupply. "This should prove a turning point for the semiconductor industry," the firm says; memory will enjoy 15% growth in 2013, boosting total semiconductor revenue in 2014 by 9.9% to $342B — that’s noticeably better than the 5.6% growth Gartner previously foresaw for 2014.

Two chip areas will see better demand than other segments in 2013: NAND memory and ASICs, growing 17% and about 9% respectively, thanks to usage in Apple devices (Gartner counts Apple’s A4/A5/A6 custom and exclusive chips as ASICs). New video game consoles coming in late 2012 and 2013 will also help boost ASIC demand.

One area expected to stay weak overall is PCs, declining -2.5% in 2012 and continuing to be soft in 2013. One exception: ultramobile PCs, which will "grow strongly off a small base," Gartner says. Blame the economic malaise, within which end-users are choosing to hang onto older machines and not upgrade; if they do get a new computer it’s often a tablet instead.

Speaking of tablets, look for eye-popping 38% growth in 2013 to 207M units — that’s an extra 30M units more than Gartner foresaw three months ago. Credit the successes of the Amazon Kindle Fire, Google Nexus 7, and Apple iPad Mini, which are showing that there is a market for smaller tablets at the right price. Even "white-box" tablet demand is stronger than expected, Gartner says.

One end-market category with mixed results is the mobile phone sector. Gartner sees output softening in 2012 and into 2013 (still up 33% in 2013 though), again blaming the economy for reducing short-term demand. However, utility/basic smartphones are seeing better popularity, particularly Android-based devices and in emerging regions. Gartner points out.

Gartner’s new forecast for worldwide semiconductor revenues is
lower for 2012 and 2013, but higher in 2014. (Source: Gartner)

Rudolph Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: RTEC) has entered the back-end advanced packaging lithography market, with the acquisition of Azores Corp., and the introduction of a new 2X reduction stepper called the JetStep. The move puts the company squarely in competition with San Jose-based Ultratech, Inc., which claims 80% of the existing market with a 1X proximity projection system.

The JetStep, based in part on Azores’ 6200 platform which was developed for LCDs, has several advantages over the 1X approach, according to Rudolph, which has added its own wafer handling and software to the system. . System advantages include the largest printable field-of-view, programmable aperture blades and large on-tool reticle library, large depth-of-focus along with autofocus to accommodate 3D structures in advanced packaging, very large working distance, and warped wafer handling (+/- 6mm). The system also feature programmable wafer edge protection, enabling a variable edge exclusion zone of 0.5-5 mm. The system also features a large (17mm) working distance between the lens and wafer, which helps avoid a common maintenance issue on 1X systems. “It’s critical to have an ample depth of focus,” said Elvino da Silveira, president and CEO of Azores (Wilmington, MA), who will stay on to head the Rudolph lithography group.

In addition, with its flat panel lithography heritage, the JetStep System incorporates Azores’ high precision grid motor stage. This provides a flexible platform that can be readily scaled to changing substrate sizes and types in the advanced packaging market. It can handle both standard and reconstituted 300mm and 330mm wafers, all panel sizes and is 450mm capable.

Commenting on the new product and the acquisition, Paul F. McLaughlin, chairman and CEO of Rudolph, said: “The JetStep System is a disruptive innovation in the back-end lithography market, addressing the technical and economic advantages demanded for advanced packaging. The Azores acquisition uniquely positions Rudolph in the back-end stepper advanced packaging photolithography market with a significantly expanded business model, and we believe that by offering the industry’s only total solution to advanced packaging lithography, we can more than double Rudolph’s total back-end addressable market.”

“Specifically, the advanced packaging market needs a stepper supplier willing to be flexible and capable of delivering unique solutions for their requirements, and a process control partner that can deliver improved production systems for advanced packaging applications,” McLaughlin noted. “By leveraging R&D investments from both the Rudolph and Azores organizations, we took a field-proven 2X display lithography technology and applied it to the needs of the high-growth back-end packaging market where Rudolph already has long-standing customer relationships and global brand recognition. In short, we have changed the game,” McLaughlin said.

Strategically, the deal doubles the combined companies’ backend market presence, giving Rudolph a foothold in backend litho for advanced packaging, points out Credit Suisse analyst Satya Kumar. This $150M-$200M market is currently "fragmented among proximity aligners" targeting lower-end bumping and steppers for wafer-level packaging applications, he notes, with the latter (~$100M market) currently dominated by UTEK (as mentioned above).

One JetStep tool has already been placed at a subcontract customer, according to Rudolph; Kumar speculates it’s STATS-ChipPAC.

Financially speaking, the deal should be accretive in 2013, contributing ~$20M in revenues (roughly 10% of the combined company’s total sales). Rudolph expects 100-200 basis points impact to gross margins in the near term, but operating margins should smooth out to corporate average in over the next year or so.

December 12, 2012 – Increased tablet adoption, with Apple’s continued dominance and emergence by new players (see Google, Microsoft) are changing the mobile PC competitive landscape — and supply-chain partners are having to rethink their strategies to stay atop the game.

Competitive conflicts are now a big concern, points out Jeff Lin, value chain analyst at NPD DisplaySearch; he cites Samsung Display planning to reduce its share in Apple and increase support to captive brands and other external customers, including Amazon and Barnes & Noble. New competitors in the market will seek to emphasize touch notebooks and ultraslim devices in 2013, while entrenched mobile PC competitors (Lin points to HP, Lenovo, Samsung, and Acer) need solid agreements with their own OEMs. Their collective demands will strain supply-chain logistics, from panels to OEMs, he notes.

“With 2013 business planning well underway, product portfolios, sales strategies, and sourcing plans for mobile PC brands will certainly impact the supply chain,” Lin noted. Top PC brands will see only 2% annual growth in 2012 for notebook PCs, and a -28% plunge in mini-notebook PCs — but tablet PC growth chugs on at 75%. In 2013, however, these PC companies are setting their sights higher, planning 16% Y/Y shipment increases on average for notebook PCs, while tablet PC growth "may be less impressive than in 2012,” he says.

LG Display was the top supplier of mobile PC panels, with more than a third of its shipments going to Apple. Still the clear leader in mobile PCs (defined as notebooks, tablets, and ultraslim PCs), Apple accounted for more than 84% of total tablet PC shipments in 2Q12 (primarily made by Foxconn). HP was second, with Quanta covering about 33% of its production. Foxconn led in all PC OEM production in 2Q12 with >85% of its volume from Apple’s new 9.7-in. iPad and iPad 2. (Quanta started making Google’s Nexus 7-in. tablet PC in 2Q12.)

OEM shipments to mobile PC customers, in millions. (Source: DisplaySearch)

What will 100M iPads do to the tablet supply chain?

Speaking of Apple, panel makers including Samsung, LG Display, Sharp, and Innolux are expected to ship 70M iPad panels (9.7-in.) in 2012; about a third of them (23M) for iPad 2 XGA panels and the rest (47M) the new iPad QXGA panels that use both a-Si and oxide TFT technologies. Strong sales of the legacy iPad model continue, though, so Apple and its panel makers are having to adjust their panel production plans.

Die-hard techies love their favorite devices, none more so than Apple fans. The iPad mini, which was recently voted one of the hottest consumer products of 2012 in Japan, immediately faced supply shortages for its 7.85-in. XGA display supplied by AUO and LG Display. Apple had originally planned to sell 6M units in 2012; only 1.6M panels shipped in 3Q12, but the company wants panel makers to ship another 12M to meet demand.

This is even harder than it sounds. The iPad panels are known to be complex and difficult to make, notes DisplaySearch’s David Hsieh. Not only must they have high resolution and low-power consumption, but their wide viewing angle and high color saturation require additional photomask steps. "Standard a-Si TFT backplanes require 4 or 5 photomask steps, but the iPad and iPad mini panels require 6 to 7," notes Hsieh. "And for panel makers with limited experience in IPS [in-plane switching] or FFS production, as many as 8 mask steps may be used. Increased mask steps means longer production times and lower yield rates."

If Apple’s expectations for a substantially bigger 2013 come true, it might have to rethink its supply chain even further. Answering the strong demand for the iPad mini, the company is targeting 100M iPad shipments in 2013 — half of those for the mini, 40M for the new iPad, and 10M of the iPad 2 model. (DisplaySearch projects over 170M total tablet PC shipments in 2013, which would give Apple continued domination at 60% share.) But there’s a downside, notes Hsieh: "If the iPad mini volume is anything near 50 million units, Apple will need to find other panel suppliers in addition to AUO and LG Display, just as it always has three suppliers for the iPad panels," he writes. Likely candidates include Century (China), Innolux (Taiwan), and Panasonic LCD (Japan), all of whom are experienced in IPS technologies. Apple must also manage its iPad panel supplies in case it ends up parting ways with longtime partner/competitor Samsung.

December 11, 2012 – Our slideshow of 14 interesting papers at this week’s IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM 2012), did not include what are often some of the more intriguing papers — the ones that come in late and are unavailable for preview. This year there are four such papers, and we’re now able to give you a sneak peek at them, being unveiled starting this afternoon and through the week at IEDM in San Francisco.

ZnNO for next-gen displays

Stability degradation, especially at high mobility regime, limits the application of oxide semiconductors in next-generation displays. Zinc oxynitride, with its high mobility characteristics and small bandgap, is getting attention as an alternative for pixel-switching devices in ultra-high definition and large-area displays. Researchers from Samsung Advanced Institute of Technology and Seoul National University will describe ZnON-thin film transistors (TFTs) with field effect mobility near 100 cm2/Vs and operation stability(< 3 V) under light-illumination bias-stress. The uniformity is observed to be suitable for display applications, and with mobility performance comparable to that of polysilicon (poly-Si). (#5.6, "High mobility zinc oxynitride-TFT with operation stability under light-illuminated bias-stress conditions for large area and high resolution display applications")

Structure of ES-type ZnON-TFT fabricated by photolithography. (left) Top view from optical microscope and (b) cross-sectional TEM image at the vicinity of contact region.

SnO transistor for BEOL-CMOS I/Os

Renesas Electronics’ LSI Research Laboratory has devised a new P-type amorphous SnO thin-film transistor with high Ion/Ioff ratio (>104) as a component to complement N-type IGZO transistors for on-chip voltage-bridging BEOL-CMOS I/Os on conventional Si-LSI Cu-interconnects. (The transistor gives standard LSIs a special add-on function to control high-voltage signals directly.) Their BEOL-transistor (BEOL-Tr) uses a wide-band-gap InGaZnO (IGZO) as the channel and cap-SiN/Cu-interconnect as the gate dielectric/bottom-gate electrode. Normally-off transistor characteristics with relatively high mobility, high-Vd tolerance, high Ion/Ioff ratio, have made the BEOL-Tr attractive for voltage-bridging devices mountable onto advanced MCUs and SoCs. Realization of P-type transistors to complement IGZO-based NFETs and form BEOL-CMOS is also a key function for more sophisticated applications, they claim. (#18.8, "High On/Off-ratio P-type Oxide-based Transistors Integrated onto Cu-interconnects for On-chip High/Low Voltage-bridging BEOL-CMOS I/Os")

XTEM of the integrated device structure with G/D offset of 0.5μm. SnO is integrated onto Cu interconnect to realize P-type BEOL-Tr with high Ion/Ioff ratio. Device integration requires only one mask addition.

III-V TFETs for the 7nm node

III-V tunneling field-effect transistors (TFET) for low-voltage logic applications have gained attention, but their nonoptimized carrier tunneling limit drive currents. Researchers from the Rochester Institute of Technology and SEMATECH set out to map III-V Esaki tunnel diode performance, engineering tunnel diodes (TD) with ultrahigh-current densities while maintaining large peak-valley current ratios. In this paper, they report a comprehensive experimental benchmarking of an Esaki diode, including GaAs, In0.53Ga0.47As, InAs, InAs0.9Sb0.1/Al0.4Ga0.6Sb, and InAs/GaSb. Engineering the hetero-junctions enhances peak and Zener current densities beyond homo-junctions, to a record 2.2 MA/cm2 and 1.1 MA/cm2 (-0.3 V), laying the groundwork for III-V TFETs at the 7nm technology node. (#27.7, "Benchmarking and Improving III-V Esaki Diode Performance With a Record 2.2 MA cm2 Current Density to Enhance TFET Drive Current")

(a) Cross-section of a TD fabrication process flow. (b) SEM image of a characteristic submicron TD after mesa etch. (c) schematic of a fully-fabricated TD.

Integrated CMOS silicon photonics on 90nm

IBM researchers in the US and Europe are demonstrating the first sub-100nm technology (a current 90nm base SOI logic technology) that allows monolithic integration of optical modulators and germanium photodetectors — putting optical and electrical circuits side-by-side on the same chip. The resulting 90nm CMOS-integrated nano-photonics technology is optimized for analog functionality to yield power-efficient, single-die multichannel wavelength-mulitplexed 25Gbps transceivers. (IBM has a fuller description of the technology in a separate press release.) (#33.8, "A 90nm CMOS Integrated Nano-Photonics Technology for 25Gbps WDM Optical Communications Applications")

Cross-sectional SEM view of a 90nm CINP metal stack with Ge PD embedded into the front-end. Zoomed-in image of a photodetector is shown on top left. Optical microscope top-down image is shown on the low left.

Angled view of a portion of an IBM chip showing blue optical waveguides transmitting high-speed optical signals and yellow copper wires carrying high-speed electrical signals.

CMOS is running out of steam, but what comes next? At the International Electron Devices Meeting in San Francisco, An Chen of GLOBALFOUNDRIES presented a survey of emerging nanoelectronic devices, which he divided into two categories: Charge-based and non-charge based.

Chen is well qualified to speak on the topic. In 2009, Chen was an assignee to the National Research Initiative (NRI) program of the SRC to work on emerging logic devices, including graphene electronics and spintronics. He is co-chair of the emerging research device group of the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS). He is also an expert on memory technology, responsible for collaboration on emerging memories with industry consortia such as imec and SEMATECH.

“We can do better using better materials or device structures with better electrostatics (with existing CMOS technology),” Chen said, “but, facing fundamental limits, we have to ask ourselves ‘What are the solutions that may be available beyond CMOS?’”

One of the major challenges for scaling is escalating power density. “If we continue this trend, we’re going to some ridiculous number (see chart). That could limit how small we can shrink the device. That’s the real limit for the scaling,” Chen said. “We cannot really eliminate power leakage and we cannot reduce the supply voltage in proportion to device dimensions. We have to look for devices that may consume less power during switching,” he added.

To this end, low power beyond-CMOS devices have been developed based on novel state variables and/or computation mechanisms. Chen said that charge-based emerging devices may enable low-power computation by making the FET transition steeper or introducing new switching concepts. Another class of devices based on spin are another option; spintronics are one of the main types of noncharge emerging devices.

Chen provided an overview of the leading nanoelectronic devices, noting key features and potential challenges.

Tunneling FET (TFET)

The tunneling FET employs quantum mechanical band-to-band tunneling mechanism, and offers low Vdd, low power and an FET structure that is compatible with CMOS technology and infrastructure.

Challenges include: low saturation current, a lack of ability to extend low SS (subthreshold slope) over a wide current range; difficult engineering of the source tunneling region with regard to junction abruptness, bandgap, carrier effective mass, etc.; challenges with enhancing gate control on the internal E-field; and problems with interface states.

Impact Ionization MOS (IMOS)

IMOS devices employ a gated p-i-n structure operated in the reverse bias regime, where control of the gate impact ionization enables a steep increase of current via carrier multiplication. Key features include a steep sub-threshold slope and CMOS compatibility.

 

Challenges: IMOS devices are intrinsically slow due to the statistical avalanche charge multiplication process, and speed limitations due to carrier multiplication delay and statistical retardation delay. There are also limitations in scaling the intrinsic supply voltage, and susceptibility to hot carrier degradation.

Nano-electro-mechanical Switch (NEMS)

Advantages of NEMS, which operate as a mechnical switch with a cantilever beam as shown, include zero leakage and  zero sub-threshold swing (in principle), high temperature tolerance, immunity to electromagnetic shocks, and compatibility with CMOS.

Challenges with NEMS include: Slow switching speed related to the beam movement and oscillatory pullout time; anoscale contact reliability; surface forces that causing sticking; tunneling-limited scaling; high pull-in voltage, and variability control.

Negative-Cg FET

Key features of the negative common gate FET: steep SS based on collective effects and internal feedback mechanisms; low-power solutions are possible; it’s compatible with CMOS; there have been demonstrations of negative capacitance in ferroelectric dielectrics and <60mV/dec SS in neg-Cg FET.

Challenges: the industry needs to identify appropriate materials (oxides and ferroelectrics) for the best swing with minimal hysteresis, integration of high quality single crystalline ferroelectric oxides on silicon; scalability has yet to be proven; speed is in question.

Resonant Tunneling Diodes (RTD)

Key features: Inherently high speed; negative differential resistance (NDR); integrating a pair of RTD with CMOS gate achieves bi-stable logic operation; precise control of layer thickness is important for fabrication.

Chen provided several examples of RTD device applications: Monostable-bistable transition logic elements, tunneling-based SRAMs and RTD-based spin-filters.

Single Electron Transistor (SET)

Key features: High speed; potentially high device density; potentially high power efficiency; novel functionalities and applications; compatibility with CMOS

Challenges include: size-temperature tradeoff; modest to low gain; large threshold voltage variation; parasitic capacitance; low output current and high output impedance; limited fan-out; low noise immunity; immature fabrication process.

Mott FET

Key features: FET-type structure with CMOS compatibility; fast phase transition speed; good scalability.

Chen said there has been limited progress on FET recently, although two-terminal Mott devices have been explored for memory applications. Other challenges include: transition temperature; a lack of fundamental understanding of the gate oxide (functional channel interface and the local band structure changes under E-field is limited); Mott transition often coupled with thermal effects and structural changes.

Quantum Cellular Automata (QCA)

QCA, which has been experimentally demonstrated with semiconductor, molecular and magnetic dots could provide potentially low-power, novel information processing and transfer mechanisms, and majority gate operation.

Challenges include operating temperature and patterning at extreme scales.

Atomic Switch

The atomic switch is based on the formation/annihilation of a metallic atomic bridge between two electrodes, which can be gate-controlled.

Key features: Highly scalable; low operation voltage and power; two-terminal device for memory is the same as the conductive-bridge RAM (CBRAM); it’s a relatively simple process with potentially low cost, and is 3D stackable.

Challenges: Improve performance of 3-terminal devices (speed, endurance, uniformity); stability and variability may be concerns; speed is determined by ionic transport and electrochemical reactions at the reactive electrode interface; and a better understanding of the operation mechanisms is needed.

SpinFET

Key features: Spin degree of freedom enables additional signal modulation and control; FET-type structure and compatibility with CMOS; dissipation-less transport in theory; and nonvolatility and programmability.

Challenges: Magnetic materials and processing; requires high efficiency of spin injection and detection for sufficient on/off ratio; strength of gate modulation of spin-orbit interaction; and spin relaxation and lifetime.

Other Spin Transistor concepts include spin-MOSFETs, nonmagnetic spin transistors, non-ballistic spinFETs, and magnetic bipolar transistors.

Nanomagnet Logic (NML)

With NML, logic bits are encoded in magnet polarization directions and computation is by magnetic coupling. Key features:  Majority logic operation; room-temperature operation; potentially low switching energy; nonvolatility; potentially zero standby power; and regularity in layout and design, which makes novel architectures more feasible.

Challenges: Clocking field design and optimization; defect tolerance (e.g., misalignment); slow switching speed; scalability in question; layout efficiency; wire crossing.

Chen noted that room-temperature majority logic gate and cascaded logic operation based on NML have been demonstrated, and that a transition from in-plane to perpendicular magnetization may further improve NML operations.

Spin-Transfer-Torque (STT) for Logic

STT for logic, which is enabled by a magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ), can be a  majority logic gate based on phase locking of STT oscillators, or it can be based on STT switching in a multi-terminal magnetic tunnel junction (e.g., separate writing and sensing paths of MTJ and third-terminal controls).

Key features: Leverages technologies from STT-RAM; potentially low power; multiple logic states possible; non-volatility and programmability; STT oscillator may provide clock functions; and it may enable novel architectures and designs based on combined logic and memory functions.

Challenges: Material and integration; reducing switching current and power; and impedance mismatch with CMOS.

Chen said many conceptual device proposals are supported by device and circuit models and there have been an increasing number of experimental demonstrations, plus significant effort on architectural design.

Spin Wave Logic

With spin wave logic, logic information is  encoded in spin wave phase or amplitude and computation is by wave interference. Key features:  Parallel data processing on multiple frequencies on the same device; potentially low-power operation; integration with magneto-electric cells enables nonvolatile information storage; majority logic gate operation; and information transmission without charge transfer and potential interconnect solution for spintronic devices.

Challenges: Efficiency and power consumption of spin wave generation; spin wave signal degradation during propagation along spin waveguide; low group velocity and speed of signal propagation (~ 107 cm/s); device scalability limited by spin wave length; and there’s the potential for inductive cross-talk.

Chen said prototype spin wave logic devices have been demonstrated, including wave generation, propagation, and detection.  

Domain Wall Logic

Information is stored in a movable domain wall in ferromagnetic wires. It’s an all metallic logic, with potentially low power. Challenges include a high current to drive domain wall migration, a relatively slow switching speed, and the need for an external clock.

All Spin Logic

Key features: Magnets inject spin + spins switch magnets; uses both analog (spin current) and digital (bistable magnet) properties; potentially very low power; low voltage clocking operation; and suitable for non-Von Neumann architectures.

Challenges: Room-temperature switching in a multimagnet networks interacting via spin currents; Introduction of high anisotropy magnetic materials into demonstration; proper choice of channel materials; and current density. So far it’s only theory without direct experimental demonstrations

Bi-layer pseudo-Spin FET (BiSFET)

BiSFETs are based on exciton condensation in bi-layer graphene. It potentially offers low power and fast speed, but challenges exist in terms of operating temperature, device fabrication (e.g., graphene and dielectric quality, alignment, thickness control, etc.), and a low noise margin.

Attendees at this year’s International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM) were delighted and perhaps somewhat horrified when the plenary speaker popped some electronics gear in his mouth and proclaimed, “It tastes like chicken!” The speaker, John Rogers from the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana, was demonstrating the edible nature of what he called transient electronics, which are designed from elements that rapidly decompose and are harmless to the human body and to the environment. One possible application of such bio-integrated electronics: They could be placed below a suture and provide enough heat through a resistive element to kill bacteria over a two week period. Bacteria sewn into the body during an operation are often the cause of a return trip to the hospital and delayed recovery.

He demonstrated that a very thin layer of silicon will dissolve in water fairly rapidly, in a matter of hours, turning into a salicylic acid. Circuits were completed with silicon dioxide as a gate dielectric and insulator and Manganese as the interconnect and resistor material. Levels were well below the FDA’s recommended daily allowance. Silk, already approved by the FDA for such applications, was used as the substrate. “You don’t want to chew,” Rogers quipped during his demonstration.

He said other applications of transient electronics include the use of sensors in chemical spills, which would monitor the presence of the chemical over time and then dissolve away, and even in consumer electronics, where lifetime would be measured in years instead of weeks.

Rogers also described another class of bioelectronics he called silicon membranes. By making silicon-based electronics thin enough, they can be stretchable. With a serpentine design, an applied strain of 30% induces strains that are less than 0.65%. These devices can conformally laminate onto the surface of the skin, in a manner that is mechanically invisible to the user, much like a temporary transfer tattoo. The systems, referred to as epidermal electronics, attach intimately and physically couple to rough skin surfaces, via van der Waals forces alone, with the ability accommodate natural and induced motions, Rogers noted in the accompanying paper.

Other bioelectronic applications include brain surgery, interfaces for human/computer control systems, skin-based physiological status monitors, high resolution electrical mapping systems for electrocorticography, and “instrumented” multifunctional balloon catheters for cardiac ablation therapy.

Rogers provides an overview of transient applications in this video and more details on his website.

December 10, 2012 – Japanese consumer electronics giants Sony and Toshiba have shrugged off weak financial performances and increased their investments in new products to revitalize their businesses, notes IHS. Sony’s spending on semiconductors will rise about 5% in 2013 to $8.4B and will just barely increase in 2014 (0.1%), while Toshiba will spend about 2% more in 2013 (to $6.1B) and over 6% in 2014 ($6.5B). That’s in contrast to other major Japanese electronics OEMS — Panasonic and Sharp will both pull back their investments in the next two years.

"All the Japanese consumer electronics OEMs are struggling financially, prompting them to take measures to cut costs in order to shore up their profits," stated Myson Robles-Bruce, senior analyst for semiconductor spending and design activity at IHS. "But even in these grim circumstances, Sony and Toshiba remain optimistic about the future, and are taking steps to invest in innovative products."

Economic slowdown in various key global markets, lower demand in certain product segments, and increased competition from South Korea and China have weighed down Japan’s major consumer electronics manufacturers; all four aforementioned OEMs are projected to lose money this year on collectively -7% lower sales, IHS notes. Sony, for example, has issued bonds twice this year to raise funding (even as its credit rating plummeted), is eliminating up to 10,000 jobs in the current fiscal year, and selling off manufacturing plants and JVs. "The Japanese consumer electronics companies face a changed marketplace, due to the rising influence of Apple and other competitors that have redefined some of the product segments or else simply just taken away share in key areas," noted Robles-Bruce.

Nonetheless, Sony and Toshiba made splashes at CEATEC in October, Japan’s version of the big US Consumer Electronics Show (CES), he notes. Sony demo’d everything from smartphones and tablets to PCs, cameras, televisions, home networking, and storage equipment. Highlights included the Bravia 4K LCD TV and new hybrid PCs that can be used as either tablets or laptops. Toshiba, meanwhile, showed off its own 4K resolution TV, as well as ultrabooks and tablets. Products were on display in small, medium, and large screen sizes. It also introduced new REGZA HD TVs with built-in DVR capabilities.

Will these investments in new technologies and products pay off for the struggling Japanese OEMs? IHS sees a mixed bag: Sony’s sales are expected to rebound 3.7% in 2013, but Toshiba’s sales will slip another -1%, and declines are expected to continue at Panasonic and Sharp.

The real question, according to Robles-Bruce, is whether these persistent declines can be overcome or if they represent a long-term trend. "The Japanese consumer electronics companies face a changed marketplace, due to the rising influence of Apple and other competitors that have redefined some of the product segments or else simply just taken away share in key areas," he writes. "Based upon the current financial evidence, it appears as though total revenue for Sony might be higher for next year, although estimates for Toshiba actually show a slight decline."

  2012 2013 2014
Sony $7,979    $8,352 $8,363
Toshiba   $6,025 $6,148 $6,535

Net semiconductor spend forecast for Sony and Toshiba, in US $M. (Source: IHS iSuppli)

December 7, 2012 – AMD and GlobalFoundries have finalized amendment of their wafer supply arrangement, establishing fixed pricing and other terms for 2013.

Earlier this year AMD and GlobalFoundries amended their wafer supply deal to a "take-or-pay" structure, which gave AMD flexibility to source 28nm parts from other foundries. (AMD also officially gave up its remaining ownership interest and board seat in GlobalFoundries.) In AMD’s 3Q12 results call, execs noted they were renegotiating that WSA; those negotiations appear to have concluded, with the following results:

– Lowered wafer purchase commitments for 4Q12, to $115M;
– A $320M payment (spread out in three installments) to terminate the current take-or-pay agreement, associated with that adjusted 4Q12 commitment;
– Wafer purchase commitments in fiscal 2013 of $1.5B;
– Wafer purchase commitment of $250M in fiscal 1Q14;
– Reduction in further reimbursements to GlobalFoundries for R&D costs, as AMD moves to standard 28nm process technology.

With this renegotiated WSA, AMD says it will return to free cash flow generation in 2H13.

"GlobalFoundries’ performance in meeting our delivery requirements in 2012 was strong and they remain a strategic and important foundry partner moving forward," stated Rory Read, AMD president/CEO. "We are committed to develop and grow our business with GlobalFoundries, increasing our engagement across our industry-leading APU and graphics roadmaps. The newly amended agreement is another step we are taking to further strengthen our relationship with GlobalFoundries as well as AMD’s financial foundation."

What the analysts think

Wall Street analysts generally see a mixed blessing in the move for AMD, providing some short-term relief and flexibility (as does the sale/leaseback of its Austin facility), but believe the move doesn’t solve the broader problem of longer-term liquidity, and that the company will have to take on new debt by midyear.

– Cash required to run the business is approaching ~$700M, so AMD might need to issue more debt, notes Barclays’ CJ Muse. More importantly, he sees "no change to our ongoing concerns of competitive pressure from both the high-end (Intel) and low-end (ARM) with traction in ARM servers."

– "AMD incrementally lowered its near-term costs but also gave up some long-term flexibility," sums up Deutsche Bank’s Ross Seymore. He points out that AMD still lacks flexibility in its foundry multisourcing strategy, given its commitment to have GlobalFoundries make all its microprocessors in 2013.

– John Pitzer from Credit Suisse thinks even the renegotiated WSA is "expensive" at 33% of COGS and 19% of AMD’s market capitalization.

– The new WSA’s complexity is itself "a negative," thinks Craig Berger from FBR Research. He agrees that more debt financing will be required, and also echoes worries about the PC market’s stagnation — low-end PC users (surfing the Web, checking e-mail) have swung over to using tablets and smartphones for that functionality, a trend he thinks is increasing in emerging markets with lower-cost options.

Berger also questions whether AMD really can get to free cash flow by 2H13, without clarity into the company’s internal revenue or gross margin assumptions. He notes that AMD was almost net-cash-neutral a year ago, but has since paid out a lot to GlobalFoundries in take/pay and termination fees, acquired SeaMicro, "and operationally burned cash." Adding up existing commitments, AMD likely will be below the aforementioned $700M baseline for operating cash, which will mean additional financing.

– Vijay Rakesh with Sterne Agee, though, sees a more positive near-term scenario for AMD, with "multiple liquidity options" including a similar sale/leaseback for its Santa Clara facility, access to ~$500M in secured loans, and monetizing its IP portfolio of thousands of patents (including those obtained through acquisitions) which he says could amount to $2.2B.

December 6, 2012 – Semiconductor equipment demand is persistently sluggish as the industry takes a break from a "multiyear expansion period" to digest recent investments and wrestle with a broader economic slowdown. But make no mistake: leading-edge technology investments are still happening, and growth will return in the typical cyclical pattern, predicts SEMI in its updated year-end forecast, issued this week at SEMICON Japan.

Sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment overall is now seen declining -12.2% in 2012 to $38.22B, after a 9% increase in 2011 to $43.53B and a 151% spike in 2010 to $39.92B, according to SEMI’s updated numbers. SEMI’s midyear forecast released at SEMICON West called for a -2.6% in overall equipment sales to $42.38B, followed by a 10.2% growth rebound in 2013. A significant downgrade had been expected, as after a strong early part of the year monthly data trends in semiconductor equipment demand have continued to turn sour.

"Sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2012 reflect significant investments over the prior two years, normal patterns of industry cyclicality and a slowdown in the broader economy," stated SEMI president/CEO Denny McGuirk. "What’s more important is that technology investments at the advanced nodes and in leading-edge packaging remain important drivers, and when market confidence returns, we expect capacity investments to increase."

Forecast by region. (Source: SEMI)

By region, only two areas will see any growth in 2012: Taiwan (12.7% to $9.60B) and South Korea (10.7% to $9.59B). Both will leapfrog the North American market, which is seen sliding -14% to $7.95B. Biggest declines will be in the smaller regions: Rest-of-World (-38% to $2.12B), Europe (-36% to $2.68B), and Japan (-36% to $3.72B). Among the drivers in Korea’s market are obviously numerous investments by Samsung (Lines 16, S1-A, and S1-C, and technology upgrades to other lines) and Hynix (upgrades to M10 and M11+M4, and the ramp of M12), noted Lara Chamness from SEMI Industry Research and Statistics. In Taiwan, TSMC is pouring resources into Fab 12, Fab 14, and Fab 15. "Other smaller device manufacturers are making non-trivial investments in the region," she added.

By equipment type, 2012 is being weighted down by the wafer processing segment, by far the largest segment, at nearly a -15% dropoff from 2011. The backend categories will decline but only about -5%, while the "other" category (facilities, mask reticles, other tools) will actually grow about 6%.

The picture brightens somewhat in 2013 with a deceleration of decline, -2.1% to $37.42B. By region there will be slight to moderate growth in China, Taiwan, and Japan, but offset by a -10% dropoff in Korean investments, SEMI predicts. By technology, the tables will turn: wafer processing will actually sneak into the black (0.3%), but backend categories will weigh down the overall picture.

Return to true growth will finally arrive in 2014, with 12.4% growth to $42.08B. All regions, and for all equipment types, will enjoy increased sales generally in the low-teens, predicts SEMI.

Forecast by equipment type. (Source: SEMI)

December 5, 2012 – Chip sales growth continues to soften in 2012 as the industry slips from "stagnation" to "slump," though this also sets the stage for a rebound in 2013, according to updated analysis from IHS iSuppli.

Five of six major end-markets for semiconductor applications are expected to decline in 2012, says Dale Ford, senior director, electronics and semiconductor research for IHS. (Communications demand, i.e. smartphones, continues to proliferate and push computing to the back burner as a key end-market driver). "An extremely weak global economy resulted in poor demand for electronics. As a result, the semiconductor industry slipped from stagnation in the first half of 2012 to a slump in the second half."

Back in August the firm switched its outlook for 2012 from a very slight gain to a very slight decline (and further nudged it down to a -1.7% decline in a September update). At the time this was called "a major event for the global semiconductor market" since even the weakest markets of 2011 hadn’t triggered a full-year revenue dropoff. IHS iSuppli’s previous outlooks during the year were 3.0% growth (to $320.8B) in July, 4.3% (to $324.6B) in April, and its original 3.3% growth outlook issued in January.

iSuppli’s latest forecast for individual sectors sees declines across the major end markets: data processing, consumer electronics, industrial, and wired communications. The PC-dominated "data processing" segment, the largest of them all, is expected to drop -7.8% this year as global PC shipments shrink for the first time in 11 years, attributed to a combination of economic factors and competition from other platforms i.e. tablets. Only one end market is seen growing, and no surprise: wireless communications (i.e. smartphones and media tablets), with 7.7% expansion, Ford notes.

By technology component, only four chip segments will avoid a sales decline in 2012: CMOS image sensors (31.8%, light-emitting diodes (LEDs. 17.5%), application-specific logic ICs (5.6%), and sensors (4.1%). As ever in recent years, memory overall is dragging down the group with a -10.7% slide, and that includes a decline for the typically hot NAND flash segment, iSuppli notes. Discretes won’t fare any better (-10.6%). TI’s withdrawal from the wireless baseband market spells a -30.9% plunge for the digital signal processing (DSP) category.

After lackluster performances in 2Q12 and 3Q12, Ford predicts a slight 1.9% uptick in chip sales in 4Q12 vs. a year ago. Even such "slender growth […] could set the stage for a return to a consistent pattern of expansion in 2013," he writes. The firm tentatively predicts semiconductor revenue will expand by 8.2% in 2013 — if expectations of improved worldwide GDP growth for 2013 holds up.

Forecasted growth of global semiconductor revenues (in US $). Source: IHS iSuppli