MIDLAND, MIDow Chemical officials say they have created builds with as many as six layers of its low-k dielectric resin, dubbed SiLK, without the buckling plaguing many similar materials.
By Lisa Nadile
MIDLAND, MIDow Chemical officials say they have created builds with as many as six layers of its low-k dielectric resin, dubbed SiLK, without the buckling plaguing many similar materials.
By Lisa Nadile
Mark Diorio
Although you are reading this column in the March issue of Advanced Packaging, it was written in January, which is, coincidentally, the time of year when set my annual forecast. Actually, I started my forecasting research for 2000 in the fourth quarter of 1999 (4Q99), but I didn`t really solidify it until the first week or two of January. I only hope that it reaches you in time for you to have a chance to revise your forecast for the 2000 calendar year.
My suggestion to you: Be conservative with your 2000 calendar year forecast because a semiconductor slowdown is imminent. In fact, it is probably overdue. The IC industry has been overheating (accepting double bookings and building over capacity) and history has proven this to be a dangerous situation.
It may seem incredible to you that I am making such a pessimistic suggestion when the current mood in the industry is quite positive. After all, the economy has never been better. Semiconductor applications are increasing. Companies are surging. Stock markets are soaring. But, on the other hand, DRAM pricing has been deteriorating, non-memory IC average selling price has been in decline, and comments among some IC vendors may indicate cancellations and push-outs. The factors that are present today are very similar to those in 1995 and 1997, which led to the subsequent downturns in 1996 and 1998.
You might recall last year I forecasted 1999 to be a strong year – that while the early portion of 1999 would be relatively slow, the second half would be dynamic. And you may also recall that I anticipated that items that would bring about the resurgence to the business levels would also provide the mechanisms for decline over time. Those mechanisms are now beginning to present themselves, so it`s prudent to prepare accordingly.
When plotting a course, it is always beneficial (and more accurate) to have at least two points of reference. Therefore, don`t take my word alone – use another source. One such source that I would recommend is Advanced Forecasting Inc. (Cupertino, Calif.), a group that has consistently forecasted the industry`s turning points during the 10 years I have used them. Advanced Forecasting has stated that “the probability of an immediate slowdown of the IC market is estimated at 80 percent.”
Advanced Forecasting bases its forecasts on “true demand models” that start out of economic factors that influence semiconductor (and other components) consumption by various end-equipment industries. It is worth noting that Advanced Forecasting`s methods to determine the probability factor are based on similarities reflected in the last four recession periods during the past 15 years. Now this in itself may be the only glimmer of hope in that the anticipated downturn is erroneous: Both Advanced Forecasting and I take into consideration past experiences, our models consider history instead more human-type factors. Past experiences may have very little bearing on the future because what is happening in the market is beyond all logical rationale. By this, I mean the high stock valuations, the record breaking stock trading levels and the very stable interest rates. The economy, in general, is on fire and analysts are saying that investments and the economy should be strong at least through November 2000 and quite possibly into 2001. So there may be a chance that the logic I and other forecasters have applied in the past has no bearing on 2000; our models have not taken into consideration today`s market conditions and are, therefore, outdated and inapplicable.
There is a new phenomenon fueling today`s investments, and our models do not take this into consideration: speculation. Speculation is a human reflex that closely resembles gambling. It is unpredictable, a bet against time and dangerous. Speculation cannot be quantified. I try to avoid speculation because my past 20 years in this industry has taught me this. (I have been wrong more times than naught when I have purely speculated on the outcome.) The only bets I ever win are the ones in which the odds are heavily in my favor.
So do you really want to follow the wave of public emotion? Still don`t think it possible that the semiconductor industry can hiccup and slow down? Well, if you consider two factors – double booking and building over capacity – the strong possibility exists that we will have a slowdown. And if you still don`t believe it…how about we make a bet?
MARK DiORIO, chief operating officer, can be contacted at MTBSolutions Inc., 2685 Marine Way, Suite 1220, Mountain View, CA 94043; 650-960-3203; E-mail: [email protected].
The Portion-Aire PV-2000DT series digital dispenser applies any liquid, paste or gel used in the production process. It features an LED countdown timer with two different time ranges: 00.0 to 99.9 sec and 0.00 to 9.99 sec with a membrane switch for upward or downward adjustment. The use of this dispenser allows dispense process verification for ISO certification and provides a repeatable process when the dispenser will apply different materials. The units feature either a 0 to 100 psi or a 0 to 15 psi regulator and gauge for dispensing the thinnest liquids (such as solvents) to the thickest pastes (such as solder pastes, RTV silicones and greases).
Glenmarc Manufacturing Inc.
Mundelein, Ill.
Mark Diorio
Word has it that a prominent Silicon Valley-based semiconductor company president decreed to his packaging group that Japan`s requirement on lead-free electronic assemblies and the elimination of lead from the external solder on an integrated circuit (IC) package by the first quarter of 2001 (1Q01) will not be an impediment to his company`s shipment into Japan. In other words, “Packaging engineering, don`t let lead-free be another obstacle between Japan and U.S. trade; make sure you have a fix!” While I am quite sure that this particular company will find a solution, the question for the U.S. packaging community is: Are we aware that some Japanese companies are imposing lead-free criteria on components as early as 1Q01, and will the U.S. packaging community have a solution in time?
While some may question this effort, it is to the U.S.` benefit to come up with a solution. As packaging engineers dedicated to the trade and advancement of the IC package, we can make an effort to remove lead. And if our somewhat insignificant contribution will aid the world environment, then we should make that effort.
There are several lead-free efforts under way by a variety of industry associations. The most significant in the U.S. appears to be the National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI), which, combined with the IPC, is initiating efforts to aid North American companies in producing lead-free electronic products by 2001. It appears that much of its work is targeted appropriately because members are attempting to foster cooperation between various communities of electronic assemblies (components, boards, equipment, materials) and are intending to modify and/or develop the appropriate JEDEC or IPC standards for lead-free electronics manufacturing. However, it is my opinion that there is not a strong enough initiative from the semiconductor packaging groups to support the lead-free effort. It appears that companies are just waiting for someone else to give them a lead-free solution for their packages.
Most lead-free efforts under consideration require manufacturing processing temperatures up to 260°C. Even if someone were to give us a lead-free material solution, do we know and understand how this temperature level will affect components? What will happen to the die? What will happen to the package? Have we analyzed the package stress and included the CTE analysis with both alpha 1 and alpha 2 values? What happens to the flame retardant in the mold compound at the elevated processing temperatures? And how about visual inspection criteria as it pertains to the filet height and coverage? The point is that, even if there was a lead-free solution, we still need to know how it truly affects packages. There are many questions that need to be answered as they pertain to package performance criteria; the answers to these questions, I can assure you, have not been thought about, let alone will come from any one consortium, task force or initiative.
One group that appeared ready to meet the lead-free packaging challenge was an effort briefly led by San Jose State University in cooperation with Silicon Valley-based semiconductor companies. While the university is currently struggling to maintain the effort because of an apparent lack of resources, this is the type of lead-free effort needed for the packaging community, as the companies and individuals involved in the project – senior level packaging engineers highly experienced in such technical initiatives and who possess a thorough understanding of the package and its environment – came with high credibility. However, until the university can determine its involvement, this effort may not realize its potential and provide the results required to achieve a lead-free package success. Similar efforts, if they exist, can also achieve good results, but the point is that such efforts require active participation from the packaging community and those individuals involved must possess a full technical understanding of the task at hand.
So what are we to do? Sit back and wait for a lead-free solution to present itself, while running the risk of U.S. ICs being blocked from shipping into Japan? Or do we, as packaging engineers, take a more active posture to eliminate lead from the external package? At the end of the day, packaging should be part of the solution, not part of the problem.
MARK DiORIO, chief operating officer, can be contacted at MTBSolutions Inc., 2685 Marine Way, Suite 1220, Mountain View, CA 94043; 650-960-3203; E-mail: [email protected].
The Ablelux AA50 UV/visible blue light curable adhesive is for quick fixturing LED and laser light sources during the active alignment of transceiver package assemblies. Bonding is reportedly achieved in seconds. It is said to be a high-Tg, low-shrinkage material with adhesion to gold.
Ablestik
a National Starch & Chemical Co.
Rancho Dominguez, Calif.
The company said record bookings in Q4 led to a book-to-bill ratio that was “substantially greater” than 1.0. Backlog at quarter's end on December 31 totaled $329.5 million, an increase of 204% from backlog of $108.5 million reported at the end of 1998.
DRAM supplier Vanguard International Semiconductor Corp., Hsinchu, Taiwan, said it will transition its memory business to a foundry model by the end of the year.
After several months of negotiations, Finnish wafer maker Okmetic has purchased Crysteco's epitaxial wafer plant in Allen, TX, for an undisclosed sum.
In a separate deal, test and prime wafer supplier UniSil Corp. has purchased a 23,000 sq. ft. epi plant in Santa Clara, CA, from LG Siltron. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. UniSil plans to begin operating the facility Sept. 1.
Crysteco, which began liquidating operations as part of a shutdown of the company earlier this year, had been seeking a buyer for the Allen facility. The company's other plant, in Wilmington, OH, is also nearing closure. Lyle Warren, former president/COO of the company, said an auction in July allowed Crysteco to sell off most of the Wilmington equipment. “We were pleased with the outcome of the auction,” he noted. All equipment will be removed, final customer product shipped, and the facility cleaned up and closed within two weeks, Warren said.
Under a purchase agreement, Okmetic Oy and its US subsidiary Okmetic Inc. have bought the Allen facility and some equipment and technology from the Wilmington facility. Asko Vehanen, newly appointed president of Okmetic Inc. and Executive VP of Okmetic Oy, said the Wilmington assets will be moved to Okmetic's Vantaa plant in Finland.
The Allen plant is expected to resume manufacturing operations next month, Vehanen said. The facility has been maintained in an idle state for about four months. Glenn Davis has been named plant manager for the Allen site; initially, about 20 employees will be based there.
Crysteco ceased operations in May, after wafer market pressures, the downturn, and other factors led to a consensual liquidation between shareholders and the bank. The company was founded in the early 1970s, and was bought out by a group of private investors several years ago. In addition to supplying epi and small diameter (three-, four-, five-, and six-inch) wafers, a small portion of Crysteco's business supplied silicon ingots.
Vehanen said the purchases will allow Okmetic to expand its product portfolio into the power semiconductor segment. A significant effort is underway to develop improved products based on the combined assets. The deal will also support Okmetic's expansion of operations in Finland, and give it a strong foothold in the US, where it has a significant customer base. “We hope and expect to have a signficant strengthening of business in this part of the world because of this transaction,” he noted.
For UniSil, the purchase of LG Siltron's epi plant marks the wafer supplier's entrance into the epitaxial wafer business. CEO Pat Curtis said having the ability to manufacture epi wafers in-house will allow UniSil to provide a full-range of products and services.
UniSil, like Crysteco and numerous other wafer suppliers, has been struggling with the overcapacity and pricing pressures plaguing the silicon market. Late last year, Philadelphia investment firm Dimeling, Schreiber & Park acquired UniSil, pulling the wafer maker out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. At the time, Curtis noted that the company would spend much of 1999 upgrading its wafer offerings.
Pharmaceutical companies implementing barrier isolation technology usually do so for one reason: regulatory concerns.
“The economics are there,” says Hank Rahe, director of technology at Contain-Tech Inc. (Indianapolis). “But because pharmaceutical is a regulated industry, the return really comes from a whole different set of assumptions.”
Baxter International (Round Lake, IL), which has more than a dozen isolators for sterility testing and manufacturing, pursued the technology “not from the point of view of cost reduction, but from the point of view of improved sterility assurance. The real issue here is not isolators, but a higher level of process control,” says Archie Woodworth, principle engineering specialist. Return on investment (ROI) is “just not looked at very closely. We are certainly concerned about product cost, and we try to reduce internal costs, but that's not the issue with isolators,” Woodworth says.
![]() Inside a formulation isolator tray at Haupt. Photo courtesy of TPC Microflow. |
Another user, who requested anonymity, says his company's “decisions to use isolation manufacturing were never founded in financial return. If they had been, we would never have undertaken the projects. We went to isolation technology as a way to address what we thought would be future concerns with aseptic processing and to get us out of a bind with European regulatory officials. It is as simple as that.
“But we are satisfied with our decisions. We are expanding our isolator manufacturing area and adding a syringe filler isolator. We are committed to isolator technology. Isolators provide us with more control over our manufacturing process and decrease the likelihood of introducing microbial contaminants to our product since people are 'isolated' from the process.”
For these companies, cost is secondary to investing in a technology that offers a higher level of sterility assurance and containment. Others go through a formal process to financially justify isolators before committing to them.
Manufacturing personnel at Monsanto (St. Louis) took four months to justify isolators, says Ken Weerts, manufacturing technology manager. The life sciences company is building a facility with multiple isolators, including a syringe filling line isolator.
“The main thing is to show a solid ROI and make sure management is supportive of the technology. The more you can justify the project to management, the more they buy into it,” says Weerts.
“Any time you are building a facility now, you have to be prepared to look at where the FDA is currently and where the regulatory requirements will go over the next five years,” Weerts says. “You have to be proactive to some extent when building a new facility. You want to be on the cutting edge, but not the bleeding edge.”
Processing improvements driven by isolation technology give the industry “more confidence in the safety of the final drug product, and my position is that that is always worthwhile from a public health standpoint. I don't know what that means from a dollar and cents point of view to the companies,” says Dr. Peter Cooney, associate director for microbiology in the Office of New Drug Chemistry within the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER).
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The Office of New Drug Chemistry now views isolators as demonstrably superior to cleanrooms, Cooney says. “The drug applications we have received that use barrier isolation for aseptic processing have media fill results that appear to be superior to those obtained in conventional cleanrooms.”
Cooney told attendees at a June International Society for Pharmaceutical Engineering (ISPE) barrier isolation conference that reviewers do not look favorably upon placing isolators in unclassified or uncontrolled environments. When pressed to name a specific cleanroom classification for isolators, he told the group that Class 100,000 “would usually be considered OK.”
He also said that in the review process of new drug applications that use barrier isolators, “the rigor we use to do those reviews is not significantly different than it is for conventional cleanrooms. Therefore, the reviewers will not institute artificially higher standards simply because barrier systems are installed.”
Although reviewers won't demand a higher standard for a barrier system, the validation data already obtained do imply improved sterility assurance – but not the 10-5 or 10-6 levels claimed by early adopters. During the development phase for barrier isolators, those first groups performing original validations would run media fills and then add the results, Cooney says, which led to claims of sterility assurance levels that were scientifically incorrect.
![]() This vessel, connected to the formulation isolator at Haupt, maintains aseptis during manufacture. Photo courtesy of TPC Microflow. |
However, any improvement in sterility assurance levels will likely lead to higher aseptic processing requirements, which can only be met with isolators. “When regulators find there is a demonstrably better manufacturing method, the pressure is on to use that technique,” says Julian Wilkins, vice president for sales and marketing for TPC Microflow (Andover, UK), an isolator manufacturer. “We have already seen European inspectors encouraging clients to adopt isolators.”
While “the FDA will never come out and tell you that you have to manufacture in an isolator,” the industry will increasingly turn to the technology to meet continually improving manufacturing requirements, Weerts says.
“Is a cleanroom a viable alternative anymore? That's what it amounts to,” Rahe says. Users can make the choice by “looking at the sterility assurance levels you can achieve with people in the environment. It's well accepted that that's the single greatest advantage of isolators – taking people out of the environment from an aseptic and containment standpoint.”
Apart from regulatory concerns, manufacturers can justify isolation technology through decreased capital and operational costs, a lower rejection rate and a project's overall ROI. (For one company's isolation justification checklist, see accompanying article.)
The mistake some companies make is to compare only the capital costs of the two approaches instead of analyzing all costs involved, Rahe says. In some cases, capital costs may be slightly higher with isolators than cleanrooms. Moreover, comparing the two is like comparing the proverbial fruits, Rahe adds. “They're taking existing technology that has incremental improvements and doing a comparison to something that has a quantum leap to it.”
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Overall, a new-build isolator line typically costs the same or slightly less than a conventional cleanroom build, but the long-term operational costs are substantially cheaper. By eliminating the need for Class 100 space, segregated rooms for each product, changing rooms and airlocks, isolators reduce the floor area of a facility by 15 to 35 percent and drastically cut air handling requirements, Wilkins says.
“If you can take out even half of that quality space, it certainly saves money on utilities and enhances turnaround efficiency. Because the facility requires less clean-up and sanitization, you get more use out of it,” says Rahe.
The technology also saves on clothing operators, which can run $10 to $20 per day per operator, and the time spent gowning and degowning. And by replacing segregated cleanrooms with isolators, fewer personnel are needed to man the lines.
But there may be a trade-off, Weerts says. “How much more are you willing to spend to get something running to gain those manufacturing costs? It is harder to start up an isolation system than a cleanroom.”
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Retrofitting isolators into an existing building may not result in capital cost savings. “But if you are building a facility from scratch, there are significant savings, because you need smaller cleanrooms, less air handling and less piping,” Weerts says.
One hopeful sign: As the technology matures, its cost will come down, Rahe says. “Like anything when it is new, it costs a lot because [suppliers] are trying to recover their development costs.”
Another consideration is the number of lots normally rejected in a year and how that number might be decreased with a successful isolation system. “If the isolator is not going to decrease the rejection rate, the justification for it drops dramatically,” Weerts says. “But if you have one additional rejected lot per year for the next 15 years, what does that cost your company?”
To determine the rejection rate savings, Weerts suggests that companies identify the cause of failures. If related to cleanroom activities, some simple adjustments there might offer more payback than investing in isolators. It's a “soul-searching exercise” when weighing rejection rate savings, Weerts says. For a company manufacturing lots worth $1 million each, avoiding one rejected lot a year may be all the justification necessary. But the answer will vary for each manufacturer.
Decreased lot loss was the primary rationale for using isolators in the new Monsanto filling line, Weerts says. “In a cleanroom the risk of contamination goes up, so we made the assessment that given the long fill time associated with the process, it warrants the investment in isolation technology.”
Weerts also advises companies to consider the project's overall ROI – regardless of whether isolators or conventional cleanrooms are used. If the total project itself has a high justification, there's more leverage to go with a higher technology. But it's not a good idea to use state-of-the-art manufacturing processes for projects with marginal ROIs. An unforeseen delay could wipe out potential returns.
That's why when calculating ROI, it's important to adjust for risks, Weerts says. “If the project took six months or a year longer, people need to factor in what this does to the ROI. If it is a good investment now, but not with a one-year delay, you have a weak ROI.”
When deciding to invest in isolators, “begin with the end in mind,” says Rahe. “You have to decide where you want to end up. Are you looking at something from an economic standpoint? Then look at the total economics. Are you looking at quality issues? Then consider all the quality data that is out in the industry. If you are looking at something to satisfy the regulators, then go to the conference meetings, read articles to see what they are thinking, then emulate it. Decide what your endpoint is. It is usually the latter.”
When regulators look upon a new technology favorably, there's a rush to implement it. “Nobody wants to be there first but everybody wants to be there second,” Rahe says. “That's where barrier isolators are.”
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Isolation justification checklist
Many variables affect the decision to invest in isolators. Based on their experience with isolators, and as part of a course, Dr. Frank Kohn, director for manufacturing, and Dr. Carmen Wagner, director of quality control and quality assurance at Wyeth-Lederle Vaccines (Sanford, NC), developed a justification checklist for implementing isolation technology.
“The checklist tries to capture not only the higher level of regulatory compliance afforded by isolation technology, but also the economic evaluation of isolators versus conventional manufacturing approaches,” Kohn says. The checklist includes:
Financial analysis. To make any capital expenditure today, most companies have to go through a detailed financial analysis, examining potential ROI or cost savings that might result from the expenditure.
“We usually sit down with a good financial person, look at a number of cost items and compare isolators versus traditional cleanroom systems. Then we do some simple math to determine the cost differences,” Kohn says. “Some people feel the initial capital investment for isolation technology is the same or slightly higher than a traditional cleanroom capital investment. However, issues such as labor savings, indirect materials, utility operating costs and preventive maintenance frequently offer a way to cost-justify isolators.”
The financial drivers considered during this process include capital investment; cost savings; reduction of labor; capacity increases; cash flow; net present value; payback period; and ROI. “Generally, companies like to see an ROI in less than two to three years,” Kohn says.
FDA regulations. FDA compliance expectations and the enhanced security that results from isolators can easily justify the technology. Isolators are worth the investment if they help avoid false positive sterility results and lot rejection due to sterility issues. Production considerations are more complex, but can also be justified by using several European and U.S. successful examples.
Facilities and expansion issues. A facility expansion, capacity increase or new product launch will often facilitate the introduction of isolators. In this category, Kohn and Wagner compare isolators versus traditional cleanroom construction and installation timelines, consider hazardous control issues, and the potential for retrofitting. Instead of tearing out walls, floors and ceilings, companies can consider upgrading a facility with a portable isolator.
Product issues. New products can often provide an opportunity to consider an isolator; in some cases, old or existing products requiring process or yield improvements can also help justify isolation technology.
Controls. Modern isolators have integrated computer controls that monitor a controlled environment. The expenses of automated controls in a production application should be considered early in the project, during initial cost assessment.
Also in their checklist, Kohn and Wagner consider three major expense categories: startup and inventory purchases; direct operating expenses, including supplies, materials and labor; and indirect expenses, such as HEPA filter integrity testing, gowning changes and utility costs.
Quantifying the cost savings of isolators is not a simple task even for companies following a rigorous justification process. But using a structured checklist makes the investment decision a little easier, Kohn says. –SG
Temperature monitor
The HPS low temperature alert monitor for the Series 45 heated pumping line jackets indicates by LED if the temperature of the heaters has fallen below a set temperature. According to the manufacturer, the monitor has been enhanced for easier set up and the design has been streamlined to require less space in the system.
MKS Instruments, Boulder, CO
(303) 449-9861
Continuous monitor
Model 41137 monitors the ground integrity of two operators and a worksurface with an RTT of less than 5x10e8, according to the manufacturer. Red and green LEDs indicate grounding status. The unit incorporates a data output signal, an audio alarm time out, a mounting bracket, a power supply and two remote jacks.
ESD Systems, Marlboro, MA
(508) 485-7390