Category Archives: Top Story Right

May 8, 2012 — Light-emitting diode (LED) manufacturing utilization rates are picking up again, with utilization in Taiwan now back up to 70 to 90% of capacity. Companies expect to close in on 100% in a month or two, driven by TV backlight demand, reports Yole Développement senior analyst Eric Virey. Asian producers see demand for general lighting starting to pick up as well, expecting general lighting — mostly replacement bulbs — to account for 10 to 30% of company revenues by the end of the year. “It’s already becoming a commodity product — even before being popular,” says Virey. “It’s now so competitive with so many lightbulb suppliers, though only a few are of good quality, that it’s pushing prices down quickly, so margins are shrinking fast.”

Figure 1. Packaged LED price trends. SOURCE: SEMI.

“In a commodity market — and we think this is a commodity market — the guy with the lowest cost structure wins,” notes Jed Dorsheimer, managing director, equity research, lighting & solar, Canaccord Genuity. “And yield is by far the most important driver of costs.” With best industry net yields still at some 75-80%, and the majority around 50%, there’s plenty of room for improvement, particularly in automating the post epi processing, by using semiconductor industry style automation, steppers, and improving the lift-off, thinning, dicing and sorting processes. Last year’s 50% drop in prices really focused people’s attention on cost structure, and is speeding up the investment in automating these back end of line (BEOL) processes.

Table. Summary of LED package price and performance projections.

Metric

2011

2013

2015

2020

Goal

Cool White Efficacy

(lm/W)

 

 

135

 

164

 

190

 

235

 

266

Cool White Price

($/klm)

 

9

 

4

 

2

 

0.7

 

0.5

Warm White Efficacy

(lm/W)

 

98

 

129

 

162

 

224

 

266

Warm White Price

($/klm)

 

12.5

 

5.1

 

2.3

 

0.7

 

0.5

Notes: Though cost and especially efficiency of LED lighting has improved impressively recently, there are still major improvements necessary to meet the aggressive target price per lumen output needed for wide adoption according to the industry consensus roadmap put together by the US Department of Energy. It figures the cost for warm white packaged LEDs was about $12.50/klm as of last year, and targets a drop to $5.10/klm by next year, to stay on target for $2.00/klm by 2015. Projections for cool white packages assume CCT=4746-7040K and CRI=70-80, while projections for warm white packages assume CCT=2580-3710K and CRI=80-90. All efficacy projections assume that packages are measured at 25°C with a drive current density of 35 A/cm2; Package life is approximately 50,000.(Source: US DOE Solid State Lighting R&D Multiyear Program Plan, April 2012)

The choice of substrate material is naturally the first driver of yield, where it may turn out that high-cost, homogenous gallium nitride (GaN) substrates with very low defect density and potentially high yield could turn out to be a low cost choice, argues Dorsheimer. Silicon substrates seem like a low cost alternative, but even if fully depreciated equipment brings the typical 20% capital cost to zero, and low substrate costs bring the typical 15% substrate cost to zero, lower yields could still make GaN on Si more expensive than sapphire or SiC.

The potential for GaN and Si substrates

LED devices made on silicon now look likely to be able to match the performance of conventional devices on sapphire, reports Virey, as work at a number of labs around the world is closing the performance gap. So the crucial issue is really the cost savings from being able to use highly efficient 8-inch silicon processing equipment. Yole cost simulations show a 50% reduction in die cost is possible, and some companies project as much as 75% savings, at least compared to smaller diameter sapphire, depending of course on yield, on how much the producer has to invest in new facilities, and on how much retrofit is needed to convert a CMOS fab to LED production. With the biggest impact on yields in epi now apparently not from dislocation defects but from bowing during the metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) process, fine tuning the thermal properties during epi could potentially bring significant improvement.

But it does open the possibility of an almost fabless model for LED makers who could produce in CMOS foundries. And it could certainly change the industry supply equation. “One CMOS fab probably has enough capacity for the world’s supply of LED die,” notes Virey. GaN-on-GaN should have better yields from less bowing, and has advantages for being able to inject more current to get more light out of a smaller chip area, for high current density applications. But with the leading conventional LEDs on sapphire or SiC now up to 200lm/W efficiencies, closing in on the theoretical limit, the 5 to 10% increase in performance possible with the GaN substrate may not be worth the 10x higher substrate cost. Here again, it’s just a cost game where yield is the critical parameter.

Figure 2. LED chips made on a 2" silicon wafer. SOURCE: Lattice Power.

Lattice Power pushes toward mass production with GaN-on-Si

Lattice Power reports it is now selling commercial LED die from volume production runs of several hundred 2” silicon wafers a day from its Jiangxi, China, fab, and aims to transition to 6” wafers within twelve months. “We’re not in R&D mode anymore, we’re pushing towards mass production,” says CTO Hanmin Zhao. He reports performance, cost and yields in the 2” silicon are similar to 2” sapphire, and reliability and life test have so far shown results similar to sapphire.

Zhao says the company’s solution for designing and then growing the multi-layer buffer layers to counter the lattice and thermal mismatch seems to transition fairly well to 6” wafers, where the advantage of silicon would of course be much more significant. It’s looking at 6-inch because the tools would be affordable, while it needs a partner with an idle 8-inch IC fab to make production on 8-inch silicon economical with the more expensive tool cost, and there are not many idle 8-inch fabs in China. Zhao figures that except of course for the MOCVD equipment, some 70-80% of the CMOS tools could be used with only minor modification.

These speakers will join other industry leaders from Cree, Everlight Electronics, Soraa, Seoul Semiconductor, GT Advanced Technologies, EVGroup, Laytec and more to discuss the potential of disruptive technologies and best options for improving manufacturing yields in LED manufacturing at Extreme Electronics (South Hall) at SEMICON West 2012, July 11, in San Francisco.

And don’t miss the US DOE SSL Manufacturing R&D Workshop 2012, June 13-14 in San Jose, CA, www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/ssl/sanjose2012.html

SEMI is online at www.semi.org.

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May 8, 2012 — Baolab Microsystems will modify the structures of its 3D NanoCompass to build a range of other motion sensors, with the end-goal of low-cost, smart, reconfigurable inertial measurement units (IMUs). Baolab creates nano electro mechanical systems (NEMS) within standard CMOS wafer metal structures via its NanoEMS technology, an order of magnitude smaller than MEMS built on the surface of the wafer and also at a fraction of the cost made via high-volume manufacturing.

Baolab has designed ways to modify its NEMS structures to create gyroscopes, accelerometers, and magnetometers, said Dave Doyle, Baolab’s CEO. Baolab can build combinations of these sensors on the same chip, simultaneously with associated electronics. These multi-sensor IMUs could be activated and configured dynamically as required by the application.

By building MEMS on standard CMOS production techniques, Baolab can “make as many as we like of whatever mix of sensors that are required at the same time, integrated with the analog and digital electronics running fusion software to make them smart,” said Doyle. The traditional way of making MEMS sensors requires a different production process to make each type of sensor.

"We will be introducing a series of nanosensor products as we work our way through the roadmap towards our goal of ultra low cost, smart, multi-sensor NanoIMUs," he concluded.

Baolab’s NanoEMS technology enables MEMS to be created inside the CMOS wafer using standard manufacturing techniques. To learn more, visit www.baolab.com.

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May 7, 2012 — Western Michigan University developed a device combining a laser and diamond cutting system, enabling users to process hard, brittle materials that are difficult to machine. Initial applications include micro electro mechanical system (MEMS) manufacturing, and other fabrication on semiconductor and ceramic materials.

The technology, developed by John Patten and Deepak Ravindra, combines a fiber laser (typically near-IR) with an optically transparent diamond cutting tool. Essentially, the laser source’s high temperature (1,000°C+) and pressure (>100 GPa at the cutting point) thermally heats and softens the material’s surface to make it more ductile and easier to machine with the high-stress diamond tool.

It does not create cracks like existing manufacturing processes do with diamond tools, which require subsequent polishing. This technique softens the material before processing so no cracks or fractures are ever introduced, eliminating those costs and time, explains Ravindra.

A spinoff company, Micro-Laser Assisted Machining Technologies (μ-LAM), has been formed to commercialize the technology. Their work has been backed by more than $2.3 million in funding since 1999, mostly from the National Science Foundation (NSF). A description of their work will be presented at next month’s North American Manufacturing Research Conference (NAMRC) at Notre Dame in South Bend, IL (paper 7777). They received a SMA Innovation award in 2009.

Learn more about lasers for device fabrication from Industrial Laser Solutions at http://www.industrial-lasers.com/index.html, which provided this news story.

Schematic illustrating the concept of the μ-LAM process. (Source: μ-LAM)


May 4, 2012 — Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ:TXN, TI) hosted an Analyst Day this week to discuss and review key strategies and progress achieved over the past 15 years. Barclays Capital “heard few surprises” at TI’s Analyst Day; its analysts maintain their view that TI is a “high-quality analog company” that raises some concerns that it is not able to benefit from its scale advantages, with a growth trajectory of only GDP-plus (i.e. in line with overall semiconductors). FBR Capital Markets analysts agree that “little new surfaced.”

See Texas Instruments’ Q1 results.

Management recapped its transformative moves: the sale of its memory business, its acquisition of analog capabilities with Unitrode and Burr Brown purchases, the sale of the sensors & controls business, its move to wind down baseband sales (20% of revenues in 2006), its purchase and ramp of multiple 300mm analog fabs, and its purchase of National Instruments.

Texas Instruments’ management focused on the transition to higher-quality revenues — analog and embedded processing — for growth, Barclays notes. TXN is ranked 1st in analog with 15% share and second in embedded chips with 12% share. TXN’s competitive advantage to enable faster growth in core markets is led by breadth and depth of portfolio, sales/service engineering scale, 300mm leadership/back end IP. TXN has a wireless focus on "internet of things" or the era of interconnected cloud, where the company today over 100 design wins. Texas Instruments’ management focus is on stickiness of long-term relationships/profitability in this business, though they do not provide a timetable here.

Also read: Texas Instruments (TI, TXN): Trouble with wireless, analog is stable

Led by inexpensive capacity buys (i.e. RFAB 300mm), TI’s current footprint supports $21 billion ($26 billion including empty cleanroom space) with utilization today in the low 50% range, Barclays reports. Capital spending was down by one point to 4-7% of revenues, FBR Capital noted. As TI’s 300mm analog RFAB ramps, TI will see cost and margin benefits on its highest-volume analog chips, allowing it to make fatter margins, sell at lower prices to gain share, or possibly dip into lower-margin segments to drive growth, FBR reports.

Financial targets largely unchanged; TI plans to grow top line "significantly faster" than semis, even better EPS growth, and cash return to shareholders via dividends/buybacks (though tempered near term by NSM debt pay down). TI noted that core revenues (analog, embedded processing, OMAP, connectivity) have grown from 52% of sales in 2006 to 78% of sales in 1Q12 (baseband still 3% in 1Q12). With a broad-based business not dependent upon any single customer or product, a decreasing capital investment profile, and robust future growth prospects in 80% of its business, TI believes it will return more capital to shareholders going forward.

Management firmly believes its markets have bottomed and that the recovery has begun, driven by strength in auto and industrial, which appear to have responded earlier than typical in this cycle. R&D guidance was unchanged at $2.0 billion in 2012 (with annual capex guidance of $750 million).

TI has done a good job of focusing on its analog core, building competitive barriers, and growing scale, said FBR analysts, but the chipmaker has built inventory ahead of demand and its wireless business seems challenged. TI’s days of inventory grew by 21 sequentially to 108 days, likely borrowing from future fab utilization rates. FBR analysts do not think this is “too much” inventory to service its customers, but it could drive lower utilizations at some point in the future, for a company that already has ample unused capacity.

TI’s recent revenue weakness has been worse than that of some peers due to a meaningful revenue correction in wireless base station products, continuing secular baseband declines, lagging connectivity combo shipments and design wins (Broadcom seems dominant), and with solid exposure to industrial shipments (where inventory declines are meaningful).

While TI does have a meaningful market position with its OMAP application processors, and likely further penetration into smartphones and tablets in the coming years, this segment has thus far underwhelmed initial expectations. Increasing competition has compressed ASPs and challenged TI’s share, as we now estimate OMAP and connectivity revenues (wireless excluding baseband) to decline year over year — hardly the growth engine the wireless segment once was.

TI’s OMAP 5 dual core A15 OMAP refresh is expected in 2H12. With the latest release of Qualcomm’s S4 and NVIDIA’s quad core Tegra 3, OMAP has lost some of its differentiated value proposition. Weak OMAP sales may also be magnified by decisions from Samsung and Huawei to increasingly use proprietary applications processors (TI had numerous 2H12 wins with both companies).

FBR wonders whether some of the weakness TI is seeing now could be due to wireless or other customers reducing exposure to the combined TI/National entity, pointing out that this has happened in other mergers when one supplier has too much share at any given customer, then second sources of supply are qualified.

TI acknowledged that National lost considerable handset share in recent years, partially driven by hardline pricing decisions based on predetermined gross margins or ASP goals, with management determined to price chips depending on market characteristics and value to stem the share loss. Finally, management noted that SVA has about $2.5 billion of revenue-generating capacity, but only $1.5 billion of sales in calendar 2010, though management looks to increase utilizations beyond National’s recent 50-60% through share gains and cross-selling. The deal adds about 12,000 new parts to TI’s analog product stable. While there is likely some overlap in TI parts and National parts, the firms said their offerings are highly complementary with limited overlap. While TI said that it is likely to keep using National’s 150mm and 200mm fabs given their mid 50% utilization rates and low manufacturing costs, TI could slowly move National’s production out of those facilities and into its 300mm facilities. TI currently has equipped capacity to generate about $2 billion in annual revenues from its 300mm fabs, and it has walled capacity to generate more than that.

More consolidation is possible in the analog space given the fragmented and diffuse nature of that market, and given that TI is so much larger (18% share) than its next few competitors (4-6% share). FBR would not be surprised to see TI acquire more analog firms, or to see other analog firms merge in order to build scale and manufacturing efficiencies to more effectively compete against TI.

Texas Instruments has shifted its wireless focus away from baseband products to application processors and connectivity products, as the baseband business requires considerable R&D and scale to address multiple standards in many different countries around the world, and to avoid rampant competition. The company’s exit from the baseband business, which was guided to play out through year-end 2012 on a linear basis, negatively affected revenues by about $810 million and EPS by about $0.13 in 2009, versus 2008, and did not fall at all in 2010 as the semiconductor market recovered and TI’s baseband business increasingly centered around 3G. The total baseband-related

EPS drag was about $0.11 in 2011 as the firm rode out its 3G business, having already lost its 2G business, and then $0.16 per year in 2012 and $0.04 in 2013, making this issue fairly minor compared to the scope of TI’s overall business, and since other growth areas such as analog and embedded processing should more than make up for this EPS drag. Management did recently say that baseband shipments would track near $75 million in 1Q12, and then track at $50 million to $100 million per quarter for the remainder of 2012 before dropping to zero in 2013.

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May 3, 2012 — Tablet PC shipments are expected to grow from 81.6 million units in 2011 to 424.9 million units by 2017, according to NPD DisplaySearch, overtaking notebook PCs. This rapid growth comes with diversification, in hardware like displays and in software like operating systems (OS).

Component manufacturing capacity is being increased to meet this new market demand. Many display manufacturers are transitioning tablet panel production to larger plants, including Gen 6 and Gen 8, which will lead to greater capacity for tablet displays, as well as lower prices. In addition, the share of AMOLED displays in tablets is forecast to increase from 3% in 2012 to 30% by 2017.

Also read: Media tablets join top 5 semiconductor end-markets in 2012

Figure. Worldwide tablet PC emerging and mature market shipment forecast. SOURCE: Q1 2012 NPD DisplaySearch Tablet Quarterly report.

 

The young market has been “dominated” by Apple’s iPad and similarly configured tablets from competitors, said Richard Shim, NPD DisplaySearch senior analyst.

NPD DisplaySearch expects retailers, brands, and consumers to experiment with emerging tablet opportunities. Increased investments in the tablet supply chain — amidst a lull in the growth of other device categories — will lead to more opportunities for new technologies to challenge incumbents. A key area where there is room for differentiation is operating systems, with Android taking share from iOS. Windows RT will also grow, but from a very small base.

NPD DisplaySearch’s Tablet Quarterly report tracks quarterly changes in tablet PC products and strategies, and forecasts the impact of those changes on the market. It covers the changing landscape of screen sizes, features that are expected to be included and excluded in future tablets, and operating systems. NPD DisplaySearch is a global market research and consulting firm specializing in the display supply chain, as well as the emerging photovoltaic/solar cell industries. Internet: http://www.displaysearch.com/.

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May 2, 2012 – PRNewswire — Audio test tool supplier Audio Precision (AP) released a pulse density modulation (PDM) audio interface option on its APx500 for direct I/O, modulation, and decimation for designers of micro electro mechanical system (MEMS) microphones and other PDM devices.

Learn more about the APx PDM interface here.

PDM is a one-bit, high rate data stream that conveys a signal by modulating the density of the pulses. AP’s PDM option supports 4th and 5th order modulation; interpolation ratios of 32, 64, 128, and 256; and the ability to analyze an undecimated PDM bitstream.

A 50x interpolation ratio will be available in Summer 2012.

The PDM option includes a built-in power supply for devices under test (DUT), and can directly measure power supply rejection (PSR) in PDM devices. Users must have APx500 v3.0 software, which may be downloaded free of charge.

AP’s audio test instrument APx500 also includes a new PESQ software option for fully automated testing of speech quality with any audio interface, generating MOS (Mean Opinion Score) results. The APx PESQ software option allows the results of many tests to averaged, and may be used with any audio interface, including analog, DSIO, Bluetooth and PDM. In addition to support for PDM and PESQ, APx500 v3.0 enhances the DSIO (Digital Serial In/Out) with support for up to 16 channels of TDM at 96 kHz, variable TDM word length and accommodations for TDM variations used in a wide range of DSP products.

Audio Precision makes audio test instruments and applications. For more information, visit http://ap.com/.

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May 1, 2012 — Solid State Technology and SEMI will present the 2012 Best of West product awards at SEMICON West 2012, July 10-12 in San Francisco. Best of West recognizes important product and technology developments in the microelectronics industries.

This is the second year that Solid State Technology has co-hosted the awards program. Check out last year’s winner: SigmaTech’s UltraMap-TSV system.

All SEMICON West exhibitors are eligible to participate. Consideration for the Best of West awards will be limited to all products, services and technologies publicly introduced from August 1, 2011 to SEMICON West 2012. Entries are limited to two per exhibitor, and the submitting company cannot be representative firms or other third-parties.

Winners will be selected by an independent panel of highly qualified judges from academia and the industry. Entries are judged on their financial impact on the industry, engineering or scientific achievement, or societal impact and benefits. SEMI reserves the right to make all final decisions on eligibility.

Deadline for submissions is extended to May 21, 2012! Submit a Best of West entry.

To enter the Best of West competition, submit company name and contact information, a maximum 750-word description of the new product /technology, and a maximum 300-word summary of why it’s important, in Microsoft Word. Supporting charts, graphs and illustrations must be submitted as part of the Microsoft Word document. Entries that are not submitted in Microsoft Word or otherwise do not follow instructions will be rejected.

Finalists will receive recognition for their achievement through press releases, on the SEMICON West website, through online exhibitor directories, and special booth displays.

Winners will be announced during SEMICON West and will be selected from the pool of finalists. Judges may visit exhibitors during SEMICON West to obtain further information on the submission.

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May 1, 2012 — LCD panel shipments to Chinese TV makers peaked in December 2011, fell sharply in January 2012, and recovered in February, shows the NPD DisplaySearch MarketWise-LCD Industry Dynamics report. In February, shipments to Chinese TV makers from DisplaySearch’s surveyed panel makers reached 3.75 million units, up 18% month over month (M/M).

Panel shipments to Chinese TV makers are estimated to have grown seasonally 24% in March and 2% in April, affected by May Day holidays. In April, the supply chain’s production and inventory build-up is expected to have stopped. Chinese TV makers’ demand for panels will therefore fall 13% and 8% M/M in May and June, respectively.

Supply constraints were caused by low yields on new models, and adoption of new production technology at panel makers, not recovering demand in the market. Panel makers also rearranged panel capacity, and TV makers asked them to build production for new models.

There is little margin for price declines, according to TV makers, with some reporting that panel prices have reached bottom. April is expected to show a price hike for TV panels, depending on price negotiations, and interactions between Chinese TV makers and leading TV makers with their captive panel suppliers.

Figure. LCD TV panel shipment to China TV makers (millions). SOURCE: NPD DisplaySearch MarketWise-LCD Industry Dynamics.

Chinese TV brands have been cautious about building up production or stocking more panels, keeping inventory levels at about 5-6 weeks of TV sets and 7-10 days of panels on hand. Inventories have stayed at these levels even with slower domestic demand during the last two months. Most Chinese TV makers surveyed by DisplaySearch believe they can get the display panels they need from suppliers, excepting 42” and 47” and certain other models that are forecast to have supply constraints in April.

The latest industry survey shows that some panel makers have further lowered their shipment plans for Q2’12 more than once. Shipment plans for March were up a modest 2%, but DisplaySearch sees them decreasing by 1-3% in April and May. Panel makers also need to reduce their shipment plans to better react to soft demand and avoid inventory problems. This industry-wide adjustment helps stabilize supply and demand throughout the forecast months.

The two major Korean panel makers reduced their shipment targets for April and May, expressing concern about overall demand in China. This is in contrast to the forecast changes at Taiwanese panel makers. There may be fewer subsidy programs this year, and the home appliance to rural program will be the only one left in China. The decreased forecast is also a result of competition and the Korean panel makers’ business strategies (e.g. open cells) involving Chinese TV makers.

Chimei Innolux will continue to lead in panel shipments, and has significantly increased its shipment forecast for the next 3 months. Despite its increased targets, Chimei Innolux shows a clear seasonal trend in the Chinese market. Their shipments grew 30% M/M in February, and they are estimated to have peaked in March with a 24% M/M increase. Chimei Innolux will maintain this high level of shipments in April before seeing declines of 20% and 17% M/M in May and June, respectively.

LG Display does not have a positive view of Chinese demand and expressed concern that inventory might become an issue in Q2 2012. LG Display’s Q2 2012 shipment plan for China is conservative, and the company is not supporting an open-cell business for its external TV customers. At the same time, LG Display faces competitive pressures from Taiwanese panel makers on the new sizes: 29”, 39”, and 50”.

Samsung increased its TV panel shipments slightly in March. The company forecast that monthly shipments would trend downward in Q2 2012. It is projecting a low forecast for shipments to the Chinese market, especially in June. The target for June shipments is even lower than the record low that occurred in January. DisplaySearch’s industry checks revealed that TCL, Samsung’s major Chinese local TV customer, will reduce its panel procurement to support CSOT, its captive panel vendor. Despite the risk of losing some business from Chinese TV customers, Samsung expects an increase of business from its captive and strategic customers in Q2 2012. Samsung may implement its aggressive business strategy as planned, sending open-cells to China this year.

AUO plans to ship more in March, but capacity constraints and yield rate issues limit AUO’s panel output. On the demand side, AUO reported that some Chinese TV customers were adjusting inventory and pushing shipments back to April.

BOE failed to meet its shipment targets for January and February, but the company still plans to increase its shipments throughout the forecast months. BOE is focusing on the supply of 32” in particular, and there is concern about a supply imbalance for 32”, especially in the Chinese TV market. Currently, more than 55% of BOE’s panel shipments are to Chinese TV makers.

There is competition from China’s local panel makers. Recently, China’s Ministry of Finance officially announced changes to the import duties on certain products, which will be effective April 1, 2012. Among them is a duty on 32”+ TV open-cells. The duty on open-cells will be increased from 3% to 5%. According to our cost analysis, the increase might not be enough to force Korean and Taiwanese panel makers to build fabs in China. However, if domestic suppliers build more LCD TV panel fabs as planned, then the import duty might be increased further. For political and business reasons, foreign panel makers are considering building LCD fabs in China. Previous plans included building fabs, but current plans include the option of moving existing fabs. An argument against building new capacity is the overcapacity in the industry.

Access the report: MarketWise-LCD Industry Dynamics. DisplaySearch LLC, an NPD Group Company, is online at www.displaysearch.com.

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