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At the recent Georgia Tech-hosted International Interposer Conference, Matt Nowak of Qualcomm and Nagesh Vordharalli of Altera both pointed to the necessity for interposer costs to reach 1$ per 100mm2 for them to see wide acceptance in the high-volume mobile arena. For Nowak, the standard interposer would be something like ~200mm2 and cost $2. The question that was posed but unanswered was: "Who will make such a $2 interposer?"

Less than a month later, this question began to be answered as several speakers at the year-ending RTI ASIP conference (Architectures for Semiconductor Integration and Packaging) began to lift the veil on silicon interposer pricing.

Sesh Ramaswami, managing director at Applied Materials, showed a cost analysis which resulted in 300mm interposer wafer costs of $500-$650 / wafer. His cost analysis showed the major cost contributors are damascene processing (22%), front pad and backside bumping (20%), and TSV creation (14%).

Ramaswami noted that the dual damascene costs have been optimized for front-end processing, so there is little chance of cost reduction there; whereas cost of backside bump could be lowered by replacing polymer dielectric with oxide, and the cost of TSV formation can be addressed by increasing etch rate, ECD (plating) rate, and increasing PVD step coverage.

Since one can produce ~286 200mm2 die on a 300mm wafer, at $575 (his midpoint cost) per wafer, this results in a $2 200mm2 silicon interposer.

Lionel Cadix, packaging analyst of Yole D

Mike Rosa, MEMS global product manager at Applied Materials, blogs about recent advances in MEMS, as described at the recent MEMS Executive Congress.  

Over the last 50 years computing power has migrated from the mainframe, to the desktop, to the laptop, and now, with almost-equivalent computing capability, onto mobile devices, tablets, and smart phones. 

And tomorrow? If you were in Scottsdale, AZ in November for the now semi-annual MEMS Executive Congress, you would have heard about the latest concepts in personal computing – and I mean really personal. Think body art that collects data…well, not quite body art, but an array of patches, arm bands, watches, jewelry and more, all with one goal in mind – to help quantify every aspect of our daily lives!

It’s been referred to in recent times as the “Quantified Self” or “QS Quotient” and it’s just one of the many exciting advances enabled by MEMS.

MEMS devices enable many advances in personal health care including portable (sometimes wearable) health monitors. Fast-evolving innovations from a host of companies promise even more imaginative and discretely wearable integrated solutions.

For example, personal wellness is rapidly becoming a key priority for individuals and employers alike, both as a means to improve longevity and quality of life, and to control dramatically rising health care costs.  The result is a burgeoning business in devices that enable people to continuously gauge their personal behaviors and habits and provide actionable information.   Companies like BodyMedia and WiThings are incorporating MEMS into various portable products designed to monitor and track your vital signs, which they believe will open up new and exciting markets in personal healthcare. 

Looking only slightly further into the future, wearable patches embedded with monitoring technologies that are currently available only through health care professionals will soon find their way onto the consumer market.  One such MEMS enabled offering (see images below) being developed by BodyMedia is a seven-day, disposable patch that, will measure calorie burn, activity levels, and other body metrics, creating a snapshot of lifestyle habits to guide recommendations for weight loss, sports, fitness and much more. 

A major supplier of sports and fitness products has recently debuted a wristband with a built in accelerometer to track of all your daily activity, report calories burned and allow you to track your data over time ─ oh, and did I forget to mention ─ all wirelessly from the your favorite mobile device.  And for times when you’re not running, biking, hiking or salsa dancing, start-up company Lark has also introduced a wristband technology that, with the help of MEMS, monitors and keeps a record of your sleep patterns.

Where will it end?

According to Dr. Janusz Bryzek, vice president, Development, MEMS and Sensing Solutions at Fairchild Semiconductor, it won’t!  Bryzek moderated a lunch table discussion at the MEMS Congress entitled “Roadmap to a $Trillion MEMS Market” where we debated the growth of MEMS fueled by an increasing number of consumer, industrial and medical applications. These are based on the four strongest device types to date: gyroscopes, accelerometers, microphones, and pressure sensors.  In addition to these, there was increasing support expressed for the growth of “the internet of things,” where everyday objects are not only connected to the Internet or Cloud, but also play host to a MEMS device that enables the object to collect data from its surroundings.

The consensus among the group is that the road to a $Trillion (or unit volume) market is not an easy one.  Based on the use of today’s conventional MEMS technologies, it looks like it may take the invention of many more wristbands, waistbands, head bands, patches and pills before we can truly reach that lofty goal.  That’s not to say it won’t happen, but as in most other technology segments we’re in for many exciting baby steps as we march down the road to a “$Trillion MEMS Market.” 

 Nowhere was this more evident than during the “MEMS Technology Showcase” – a segment at the Congress where companies have an opportunity to show off the latest inventions and prototypes for MEMS-based technologies.   

Sphero and Lightbohrd are two examples of novel and very exciting products that rely on MEMS, either for acceleration, gyroscope function or for ambient light sensing and external interaction.  The MEMS in these products are available today and their use is representative of the MEMS adoption we’re likely to see as new product innovations emerge. And Applied Materials continues to be committed to developing the device fabrication technologies needed to keep those innovations coming.

Industry analysts Yole Developpment currently estimate the MEMS market at just over 7.5 billion units per year, with a valuation of $11.5 billion. Their 5-year forecast shows the combined MEMS/emerging MEMS technology market at about $20 billion by 2017, with a unit volume of more than 18 billion units. Those figures represent healthy growth, but there’s still a long way to go.  It will take many more amazing inventions ─ both new applications and new MEMS device designs ─ before that 1 trillion mark becomes a reality.  

Author

Mike Rosa serves as MEMS global product manager within the 200mm equipment products group at Applied Materials. He has over 15 years of technology focused product and business development experience.

December 14, 2012 – Joining the growing chorus of industry watchers lowering their outlooks on the semiconductor sector, Gartner has reduced both its 2012 and 2013 forecasts for semiconductor sales but is remarkably more bullish on prospects in 2014.

"The looming fiscal cliff, ongoing European debt crisis, slower emerging market growth and regional tensions have all played a part in reduced growth projections for semiconductor revenue in both 2012 and 2013," stated Peter Middleton, principal analyst at Gartner. He also pointed to an inventory buildup; levels were already high, and with softness in PC demand, "simply overshot demand."

The firm now sees global semiconductor revenues slipping by -3% in 2012 to $298B, vs. its previous expectation of essentially flat back in September. Chip sales in 2013 will increase about 4.5% in 2013 to $311B, instead of the expected 6.9% climb to $330B.

Beyond PC chip demand, another dent to the market was continued softness in DRAM pricing; Gartner thinks this won’t recover until 2H13 with supply slowing down and actually creating undersupply. "This should prove a turning point for the semiconductor industry," the firm says; memory will enjoy 15% growth in 2013, boosting total semiconductor revenue in 2014 by 9.9% to $342B — that’s noticeably better than the 5.6% growth Gartner previously foresaw for 2014.

Two chip areas will see better demand than other segments in 2013: NAND memory and ASICs, growing 17% and about 9% respectively, thanks to usage in Apple devices (Gartner counts Apple’s A4/A5/A6 custom and exclusive chips as ASICs). New video game consoles coming in late 2012 and 2013 will also help boost ASIC demand.

One area expected to stay weak overall is PCs, declining -2.5% in 2012 and continuing to be soft in 2013. One exception: ultramobile PCs, which will "grow strongly off a small base," Gartner says. Blame the economic malaise, within which end-users are choosing to hang onto older machines and not upgrade; if they do get a new computer it’s often a tablet instead.

Speaking of tablets, look for eye-popping 38% growth in 2013 to 207M units — that’s an extra 30M units more than Gartner foresaw three months ago. Credit the successes of the Amazon Kindle Fire, Google Nexus 7, and Apple iPad Mini, which are showing that there is a market for smaller tablets at the right price. Even "white-box" tablet demand is stronger than expected, Gartner says.

One end-market category with mixed results is the mobile phone sector. Gartner sees output softening in 2012 and into 2013 (still up 33% in 2013 though), again blaming the economy for reducing short-term demand. However, utility/basic smartphones are seeing better popularity, particularly Android-based devices and in emerging regions. Gartner points out.

Gartner’s new forecast for worldwide semiconductor revenues is
lower for 2012 and 2013, but higher in 2014. (Source: Gartner)

December 11, 2012 – Our slideshow of 14 interesting papers at this week’s IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM 2012), did not include what are often some of the more intriguing papers — the ones that come in late and are unavailable for preview. This year there are four such papers, and we’re now able to give you a sneak peek at them, being unveiled starting this afternoon and through the week at IEDM in San Francisco.

ZnNO for next-gen displays

Stability degradation, especially at high mobility regime, limits the application of oxide semiconductors in next-generation displays. Zinc oxynitride, with its high mobility characteristics and small bandgap, is getting attention as an alternative for pixel-switching devices in ultra-high definition and large-area displays. Researchers from Samsung Advanced Institute of Technology and Seoul National University will describe ZnON-thin film transistors (TFTs) with field effect mobility near 100 cm2/Vs and operation stability(< 3 V) under light-illumination bias-stress. The uniformity is observed to be suitable for display applications, and with mobility performance comparable to that of polysilicon (poly-Si). (#5.6, "High mobility zinc oxynitride-TFT with operation stability under light-illuminated bias-stress conditions for large area and high resolution display applications")

Structure of ES-type ZnON-TFT fabricated by photolithography. (left) Top view from optical microscope and (b) cross-sectional TEM image at the vicinity of contact region.

SnO transistor for BEOL-CMOS I/Os

Renesas Electronics’ LSI Research Laboratory has devised a new P-type amorphous SnO thin-film transistor with high Ion/Ioff ratio (>104) as a component to complement N-type IGZO transistors for on-chip voltage-bridging BEOL-CMOS I/Os on conventional Si-LSI Cu-interconnects. (The transistor gives standard LSIs a special add-on function to control high-voltage signals directly.) Their BEOL-transistor (BEOL-Tr) uses a wide-band-gap InGaZnO (IGZO) as the channel and cap-SiN/Cu-interconnect as the gate dielectric/bottom-gate electrode. Normally-off transistor characteristics with relatively high mobility, high-Vd tolerance, high Ion/Ioff ratio, have made the BEOL-Tr attractive for voltage-bridging devices mountable onto advanced MCUs and SoCs. Realization of P-type transistors to complement IGZO-based NFETs and form BEOL-CMOS is also a key function for more sophisticated applications, they claim. (#18.8, "High On/Off-ratio P-type Oxide-based Transistors Integrated onto Cu-interconnects for On-chip High/Low Voltage-bridging BEOL-CMOS I/Os")

XTEM of the integrated device structure with G/D offset of 0.5μm. SnO is integrated onto Cu interconnect to realize P-type BEOL-Tr with high Ion/Ioff ratio. Device integration requires only one mask addition.

III-V TFETs for the 7nm node

III-V tunneling field-effect transistors (TFET) for low-voltage logic applications have gained attention, but their nonoptimized carrier tunneling limit drive currents. Researchers from the Rochester Institute of Technology and SEMATECH set out to map III-V Esaki tunnel diode performance, engineering tunnel diodes (TD) with ultrahigh-current densities while maintaining large peak-valley current ratios. In this paper, they report a comprehensive experimental benchmarking of an Esaki diode, including GaAs, In0.53Ga0.47As, InAs, InAs0.9Sb0.1/Al0.4Ga0.6Sb, and InAs/GaSb. Engineering the hetero-junctions enhances peak and Zener current densities beyond homo-junctions, to a record 2.2 MA/cm2 and 1.1 MA/cm2 (-0.3 V), laying the groundwork for III-V TFETs at the 7nm technology node. (#27.7, "Benchmarking and Improving III-V Esaki Diode Performance With a Record 2.2 MA cm2 Current Density to Enhance TFET Drive Current")

(a) Cross-section of a TD fabrication process flow. (b) SEM image of a characteristic submicron TD after mesa etch. (c) schematic of a fully-fabricated TD.

Integrated CMOS silicon photonics on 90nm

IBM researchers in the US and Europe are demonstrating the first sub-100nm technology (a current 90nm base SOI logic technology) that allows monolithic integration of optical modulators and germanium photodetectors — putting optical and electrical circuits side-by-side on the same chip. The resulting 90nm CMOS-integrated nano-photonics technology is optimized for analog functionality to yield power-efficient, single-die multichannel wavelength-mulitplexed 25Gbps transceivers. (IBM has a fuller description of the technology in a separate press release.) (#33.8, "A 90nm CMOS Integrated Nano-Photonics Technology for 25Gbps WDM Optical Communications Applications")

Cross-sectional SEM view of a 90nm CINP metal stack with Ge PD embedded into the front-end. Zoomed-in image of a photodetector is shown on top left. Optical microscope top-down image is shown on the low left.

Angled view of a portion of an IBM chip showing blue optical waveguides transmitting high-speed optical signals and yellow copper wires carrying high-speed electrical signals.

December 10, 2012 – Japanese consumer electronics giants Sony and Toshiba have shrugged off weak financial performances and increased their investments in new products to revitalize their businesses, notes IHS. Sony’s spending on semiconductors will rise about 5% in 2013 to $8.4B and will just barely increase in 2014 (0.1%), while Toshiba will spend about 2% more in 2013 (to $6.1B) and over 6% in 2014 ($6.5B). That’s in contrast to other major Japanese electronics OEMS — Panasonic and Sharp will both pull back their investments in the next two years.

"All the Japanese consumer electronics OEMs are struggling financially, prompting them to take measures to cut costs in order to shore up their profits," stated Myson Robles-Bruce, senior analyst for semiconductor spending and design activity at IHS. "But even in these grim circumstances, Sony and Toshiba remain optimistic about the future, and are taking steps to invest in innovative products."

Economic slowdown in various key global markets, lower demand in certain product segments, and increased competition from South Korea and China have weighed down Japan’s major consumer electronics manufacturers; all four aforementioned OEMs are projected to lose money this year on collectively -7% lower sales, IHS notes. Sony, for example, has issued bonds twice this year to raise funding (even as its credit rating plummeted), is eliminating up to 10,000 jobs in the current fiscal year, and selling off manufacturing plants and JVs. "The Japanese consumer electronics companies face a changed marketplace, due to the rising influence of Apple and other competitors that have redefined some of the product segments or else simply just taken away share in key areas," noted Robles-Bruce.

Nonetheless, Sony and Toshiba made splashes at CEATEC in October, Japan’s version of the big US Consumer Electronics Show (CES), he notes. Sony demo’d everything from smartphones and tablets to PCs, cameras, televisions, home networking, and storage equipment. Highlights included the Bravia 4K LCD TV and new hybrid PCs that can be used as either tablets or laptops. Toshiba, meanwhile, showed off its own 4K resolution TV, as well as ultrabooks and tablets. Products were on display in small, medium, and large screen sizes. It also introduced new REGZA HD TVs with built-in DVR capabilities.

Will these investments in new technologies and products pay off for the struggling Japanese OEMs? IHS sees a mixed bag: Sony’s sales are expected to rebound 3.7% in 2013, but Toshiba’s sales will slip another -1%, and declines are expected to continue at Panasonic and Sharp.

The real question, according to Robles-Bruce, is whether these persistent declines can be overcome or if they represent a long-term trend. "The Japanese consumer electronics companies face a changed marketplace, due to the rising influence of Apple and other competitors that have redefined some of the product segments or else simply just taken away share in key areas," he writes. "Based upon the current financial evidence, it appears as though total revenue for Sony might be higher for next year, although estimates for Toshiba actually show a slight decline."

  2012 2013 2014
Sony $7,979    $8,352 $8,363
Toshiba   $6,025 $6,148 $6,535

Net semiconductor spend forecast for Sony and Toshiba, in US $M. (Source: IHS iSuppli)

December 6, 2012 – Semiconductor equipment demand is persistently sluggish as the industry takes a break from a "multiyear expansion period" to digest recent investments and wrestle with a broader economic slowdown. But make no mistake: leading-edge technology investments are still happening, and growth will return in the typical cyclical pattern, predicts SEMI in its updated year-end forecast, issued this week at SEMICON Japan.

Sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment overall is now seen declining -12.2% in 2012 to $38.22B, after a 9% increase in 2011 to $43.53B and a 151% spike in 2010 to $39.92B, according to SEMI’s updated numbers. SEMI’s midyear forecast released at SEMICON West called for a -2.6% in overall equipment sales to $42.38B, followed by a 10.2% growth rebound in 2013. A significant downgrade had been expected, as after a strong early part of the year monthly data trends in semiconductor equipment demand have continued to turn sour.

"Sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2012 reflect significant investments over the prior two years, normal patterns of industry cyclicality and a slowdown in the broader economy," stated SEMI president/CEO Denny McGuirk. "What’s more important is that technology investments at the advanced nodes and in leading-edge packaging remain important drivers, and when market confidence returns, we expect capacity investments to increase."

Forecast by region. (Source: SEMI)

By region, only two areas will see any growth in 2012: Taiwan (12.7% to $9.60B) and South Korea (10.7% to $9.59B). Both will leapfrog the North American market, which is seen sliding -14% to $7.95B. Biggest declines will be in the smaller regions: Rest-of-World (-38% to $2.12B), Europe (-36% to $2.68B), and Japan (-36% to $3.72B). Among the drivers in Korea’s market are obviously numerous investments by Samsung (Lines 16, S1-A, and S1-C, and technology upgrades to other lines) and Hynix (upgrades to M10 and M11+M4, and the ramp of M12), noted Lara Chamness from SEMI Industry Research and Statistics. In Taiwan, TSMC is pouring resources into Fab 12, Fab 14, and Fab 15. "Other smaller device manufacturers are making non-trivial investments in the region," she added.

By equipment type, 2012 is being weighted down by the wafer processing segment, by far the largest segment, at nearly a -15% dropoff from 2011. The backend categories will decline but only about -5%, while the "other" category (facilities, mask reticles, other tools) will actually grow about 6%.

The picture brightens somewhat in 2013 with a deceleration of decline, -2.1% to $37.42B. By region there will be slight to moderate growth in China, Taiwan, and Japan, but offset by a -10% dropoff in Korean investments, SEMI predicts. By technology, the tables will turn: wafer processing will actually sneak into the black (0.3%), but backend categories will weigh down the overall picture.

Return to true growth will finally arrive in 2014, with 12.4% growth to $42.08B. All regions, and for all equipment types, will enjoy increased sales generally in the low-teens, predicts SEMI.

Forecast by equipment type. (Source: SEMI)

December 5, 2012 – Chip sales growth continues to soften in 2012 as the industry slips from "stagnation" to "slump," though this also sets the stage for a rebound in 2013, according to updated analysis from IHS iSuppli.

Five of six major end-markets for semiconductor applications are expected to decline in 2012, says Dale Ford, senior director, electronics and semiconductor research for IHS. (Communications demand, i.e. smartphones, continues to proliferate and push computing to the back burner as a key end-market driver). "An extremely weak global economy resulted in poor demand for electronics. As a result, the semiconductor industry slipped from stagnation in the first half of 2012 to a slump in the second half."

Back in August the firm switched its outlook for 2012 from a very slight gain to a very slight decline (and further nudged it down to a -1.7% decline in a September update). At the time this was called "a major event for the global semiconductor market" since even the weakest markets of 2011 hadn’t triggered a full-year revenue dropoff. IHS iSuppli’s previous outlooks during the year were 3.0% growth (to $320.8B) in July, 4.3% (to $324.6B) in April, and its original 3.3% growth outlook issued in January.

iSuppli’s latest forecast for individual sectors sees declines across the major end markets: data processing, consumer electronics, industrial, and wired communications. The PC-dominated "data processing" segment, the largest of them all, is expected to drop -7.8% this year as global PC shipments shrink for the first time in 11 years, attributed to a combination of economic factors and competition from other platforms i.e. tablets. Only one end market is seen growing, and no surprise: wireless communications (i.e. smartphones and media tablets), with 7.7% expansion, Ford notes.

By technology component, only four chip segments will avoid a sales decline in 2012: CMOS image sensors (31.8%, light-emitting diodes (LEDs. 17.5%), application-specific logic ICs (5.6%), and sensors (4.1%). As ever in recent years, memory overall is dragging down the group with a -10.7% slide, and that includes a decline for the typically hot NAND flash segment, iSuppli notes. Discretes won’t fare any better (-10.6%). TI’s withdrawal from the wireless baseband market spells a -30.9% plunge for the digital signal processing (DSP) category.

After lackluster performances in 2Q12 and 3Q12, Ford predicts a slight 1.9% uptick in chip sales in 4Q12 vs. a year ago. Even such "slender growth […] could set the stage for a return to a consistent pattern of expansion in 2013," he writes. The firm tentatively predicts semiconductor revenue will expand by 8.2% in 2013 — if expectations of improved worldwide GDP growth for 2013 holds up.

Forecasted growth of global semiconductor revenues (in US $). Source: IHS iSuppli

November 30, 2012 – With the advent of two new touch sensor technologies, more than 7.5% of the mobile phone market will use "in-cell touch" in 2012 and tablet PCs will see a 5% shipment share of "DITO film structure" technology, reports NPD DisplaySearch. In-cell touch’s market share is estimated to grow to 16.7% by 2018.

Apple’s iPhone 5 uses in-cell touch technology, while the iPad mini features a DITO film structure.

"These two new projected capacitive touch sensor structures enabled Apple to reduce the thickness and weight of the iPhone 5 and iPad mini," said Calvin Hsieh, research director, NPD DisplaySearch. "These factors contribute to the consumer demand for these products, but manufacturing the new sensors has proven problematic."

Apple sources the 4-in. 1136 × 640 (326 ppi) in-cell touch LCD from LG Display, Japan Display Inc., and Sharp under a license to use Apple’s in-cell touch patents, and these panel makers are forbidden to sell LCD panels of any size using Apple’s in-cell touch patents to other companies. Limited production, along with the challenges in producing the new sensors with strict performance requirements, have resulted in poor yield rates (70%-80% or less) in LCD panel manufacturing and a higher price for in-cell touch.

The iPad mini represents the first tablet PC display to incorporate a DITO film touch sensor, which is lighter and thinner than DITO glass (0.125 mm vs. 0.4 mm). However, there are challenges with production of the sensor on film and lamination since it is easily broken when stretched. Also, alignment of film sensors is more difficult than with rigid glass, especially for larger sizes. These challenges have resulted in low production yield rates, which have been a contributor to the higher entry price of $329 for the iPad mini. Other less-expensive tablet PCs use glass sensors or a one-glass solution with optical bonding.

"In-cell touch and DITO film offer some clear advantages, but at the expense of lower yield rates and higher costs — at least in the early stages of production," added Hsieh. "Apple has concluded that the benefits of thinner, lighter devices will be highly valued by consumers."

NPD DisplaySearch’s 2012 Touch Panel Market Analysis offers a comprehensive breakdown of touch panel technologies and their market forecasts through 2018.

Touch technology shipments by category in mobile phones. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch)

November 28, 2012 – Semiconductor sales in 2012 will decline about -3% in 2012, instead of the flat growth initially expected, but will bounce back to 4%-5% annual growth in 2013 and 2014, according to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) in its updated semiannual forecast.

The WSTS latest numbers, produced at its Autumn 2012 Forecast Meeting in Kobe, Japan (Nov. 13-16), call for a -3% drop in chip sales in 2012 to roughly $290B, vs. the 0.4% flatness predicted earlier in the year. 2013 should see a return to positive growth but also less than previously thought, a 4.5% increase to $303.B vs. 7.2% growth in the spring forecast. Look for the same rate in 2014, roughly 5.2% to $318B. The WSTS blames these twin lowerings on "growing uncertainty of the world economy," including slower growth in China. (Industry watchers, including the Semiconductor Industry Association, which now goes along with the WSTS numbers) have been tracking chip sales to close the year with roughly a -4% decline.)

WSTS’ Autumn 2012 forecast, in US $B and % growth. (Source: WSTS)

By product category, discretes, analog, and microprocessors take the biggest hits (~6%) in the WSTS update for 2012, and the only segment with even slightly better performance is logic (0.2%). Discretes and analog also take a big hit in 2013 and 2014 in the new forecasts (-9% and 11% lower than the spring outlook). Other industry watchers have noted these former high-flying segments have lost momentum in the past year due to commoditization and global economic softness.

By region, no surprise that the Americas and Europe take the brunt of the WSTS downgrades in 2012, to -4.4% (from 3.2%) and -10.7% (from -3.5%), respectively. And instead of the ~6%-7% growth seen for all regions in 2013, the WSTS now projects roughly flat growth in Europe and around 3% growth in the Americas and Japan, citing caution over global economic uncertainty from European debt issues to the specter of the US’ "fiscal cliff." Global GDP growth is at recession-definition levels in 2012, though there are signs of life in the US (stronger housing demand and hiring) and China (accelerating factory output and retail sales). The WSTS does think that a healthier global economy will help all chip segments and regions achieve mid-single-digit growth in 2014.

Changes in WSTS’ Autumn 2012 vs. Spring 2012 forecasts. (Source: WSTS)

November 26, 2012 – Despite lingering clouds obscuring near-term visibility for the semiconductor manufacturing industry, signs of macroeconomic life bode well for sales of electronics devices, and by association the chip technologies that power them.

Global GDP growth is expected to come in around 2.6% in 2012, very near the threshold of what defines a global recession and well below the long-term average of 3.5%, notes IC Insights. For 2013, though, global GDP is seen climbing to 3.2%, as there are signs of life in the US (stronger housing demand and hiring) and China (accelerating factory output and retail sales).

In step with the slower GDP, sales of electronic systems in 2012 are seen growing at just 3%, half their pace in 2011 and half their long-term average. Only communications (thanks to smartphones) will see decent growth this year, as it ascends to the top of the IC end-app food chain. But that same improving outlook for global GDP should pull electronic systems sales back up to 5% in 2013. Again, thank smartphones, whose shipments will surge 55% this year to 750 million units, and account for 49% of all cellphones in the year’s final (preholiday) quarter.

And stronger electronic systems sales bodes well for the components supplied within. IC Insights pegs the IC market growing 6% in 2013, and improving to a five-year CAGR of 7.4% for the period 2011-2016, which is more than double the 3.3% CAGR in the previous five-year period (2006-2011).

Worldwide electronic system producton by system type, in US $B. (Source: IC Insights)