SEMI West Notebook: Recovery is here, but moderate
08/01/2002
by Matt Wickenheiser
SAN JOSE, CA-SEMICON West 2002 opened here to tempered, conservative remarks by top company executives and Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) leadership, with an agreement that while the recovery was underway, it would be a slow, moderate one.
At a press conference kicking off the backend of the show, SEMI president and CEO Stanley Myers released the trade organization's mid-year consensus forecast-a polling of 50 member companies worldwide. Survey respondents expect tool sales to decline 19 percent in 2002 to $22.8 billion, down from last year's $28 billion. They expect the market to grow 29 percent in 2003 to reach $29.5 billion, and 23 percent in 2004, to hit $36.2 billion.
While the book-to-bill ratio has been above one for the past three months and the chip market seems poised for recovery, there's always the caveat of fluctuations in consumer confidence, he noted, which has taken beatings recently with the corporate accounting crisis on Wall St. and the threat of possible terror attacks.
 Is the recovery here? The chip market seems ready to pick up steam, but we need to overcome existing problems. |
Ultratech Stepper CEO Art Zafir opoulo (who became chairman of SEMI's board of directors on Tuesday, July 23) agreed, saying, "We have a world problem-it's a sentiment of consumers." While a gradual recovery has begun, Zafiropoulo said he didn't expect a sharp recovery until the end of 2003.
He pointed to accounting firm Arthur Anderson's closing shop, and suggested that the 25,000 companies served by that firm will review their 2001 numbers before going to a new accounting company. In early 2003, he said, we may see a number of financial restatements from 2001, extending the crisis.
Mike Bradley, president of Teradyne's semiconductor test division, did remark, however, that the corporate crisis and related drop in net worth of many Americans didn't always affect consumers. His 13-year-old son, he said, is an "electronics consumer par excellence," forcing him to believe in a recovery, as his son continues to buy the latest, greatest devices "despite his father's net worth."
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