Confirming those gut instincts
07/01/2003
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No matter how skeptical you are about industry forecasts, the batch that hit the wires this past month has firmly solidified the gut instincts that many electronics manufacturing trend-watchers have had for a couple years.
A juicy Booz Allen Hamilton report abruptly reminds us that 16 percent of global electronics production—about $65 billion—is done in emerging markets, with more than half of that production already taking place in China.
The report, commissioned by the International Finance Group (IFC; Washington, DC), a member of the World Bank Group, goes on to forecast that $46 billion, or 77 percent of all emerging market production growth through 2005, will take place in China. If those numbers do, in fact, materialize, China will surpass Western Europe on the world electronics manufacturing standings.
On this month's cover, Mark DeSorbo offers us a deft summary of the slew of related semiconductor industry reports and forecasts that hit the wires leading up to this month's SEMICON West.
But take what you will from these reports. Approach them with caution and make sure the source is reputable. And if you're an OEM or cleanroom equipment or consumable supplier, and you're still dragging your feet on a strategy in China, the numbers contained in the Booz Allen Hamilton report may be all the impetus you need to start making a few calls.
One area of manufacturing that may not be making an expedient move to China is biotechnology—at least not yet. But based on my trip down to the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) 2003 show in Washington, DC, at the end of June, I can promptly report that just about every European country and U.S. state has thrown its hat in the ring, professing to be biotech's next great fertile ground.
And there's little surprise that vital regions sporting skilled work forces, cheap land and a proximity to biotech infrastructure are proclaiming that their streets are paved with gold for this restless, often misunderstood 30-year-old industry. Right around press time, biotech stocks were up about 66 percent from their low point last year at this time, and from a podium at the BIO show, FDA Commissioner Mark McClellan was letting the industry know he was behind innovation and believes that this time, the upturn is for real.
If he stands firm behind his plan to cut drug approval time by 10 percent, maybe this time, we will have the next boom industry right in front of our eyes.
Michael A. Levans
Chief Editor