World News
01/01/2008
SIA, WSTS stick to guns with 2008-2010 forecasts
Despite a sluggish 1H07 due to pricing woes, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) has now bumped up its outlook for 2007 chip sales to $257.1 billion, 3.8% growth vs. an anemic 1.8% projected at the end of a lousy 1H07. Beyond that, the SIA thinks 2008 will be as expected ($276.9B, just under 8% growth), but 2009 looks a bit better ($296.2B, +7.7%), and 2010 is also more optimistic ($321.5B, +8.5%).
Looking at individual product categories, generally everything will have smoothed out to high single-digit CAGR between now and 2010, with the exception of memory-DRAMs lower (1.5%) because of pricing issues, and NAND flash notably higher (20%) as more applications fuel demand.
 Chip growth seen peaking in 2008, but with swings in some product categories. (Source: WSTS) |
In 2008, look for a repeat 11% rise in PC shipments, with 8% growth in cell phone units vs. 12% in 2007. Digital TV and MP3/PMP units should slow a bit but still have growth in the teens (18% vs. >50%, and 15% vs. 23%, respectively).
Similarly, the WSTS said 2007 figures would come in slightly better than expected, as microprocessors and logic devices did better than anticipated. The WSTS still sees 2008 as the peak year for positive industry growth (about 9.1%), followed by 6.2% in 2009. Of particular note, memory sales are seen a little lower in 2008 (4.6% vs. 7.2% in the WSTS’ May outlook), but are seen rebounding with double-digit growth in 2009 (10.7% vs. 4.4% predictions).
WORLDWIDE HIGHLIGHTS
Wafer shipments were down 1.2% sequentially in 3Q07 to 2174 millions of sq. in. (MSI), slightly lower than previous expectations, according to data from SEMI’s Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG). Following 12% sequential growth in both 1Q and 2Q, finishing 2007 at the anticipated 8% annual growth would require 4Q shipments to be flat or slightly down. SEMI SMG also projects mid-single digits over the next couple of years.
The Silicon Valley Technology Center (SVTC) and SEMATECH’s R&D foundry subsidiary Advanced Technology Development Facility (ATDF) in Austin, TX, are merging to expand their “R&D foundry” capabilties, as an alternative to dedicated R&D fabs or shared development/production operations.
Applied Materials is acquiring Italian firm Baccini, a supplier of automated metallization and test systems used in manufacturing crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaic (PV) cells, for about €225M (US ~330M) in cash.
Tokyo Electron (TEL) is the newest participant in SEMATECH’s 3D Interconnect Program, the first supplier in the group launched in 2005 to evolve traditional copper/low-k interconnect technology to 3D chip stacking, including through-silicon vias (TSV) as interconnects.
Infineon Technologies and Intel have forged a technology partnership to develop optimized chips for high-density SIM cards combined with Intel’s 65nm and 45nm process-based NOR flash memory. First samples are planned to ship in 2H08, followed by high-volume production in 1H09.
Fujitsu and Taiwan’s Institute for Information Industry will invest “billions of yen” in a joint WiMAX chip R&D facility in Taiwan, according to the Taiwan Economic News and Japan’s Nikkei daily.
USA
SEMI is partnering with the organizers of global solar trade fair Intersolar to cohost “Intersolar North America,” the largest event serving the solar energy technology supply chain in the US, at this year’s SEMICON West (July 15-17, San Francisco’s Moscone Center).
MKS Instruments has acquired privately held Yield Dynamics for an undisclosed amount, combining their monitoring/control and yield management technologies. Leo Berlinghieri, MKS president/CEO, stated that the deal opens up long-term opportunities in flat-panel displays, solar cells, and other related markets that use thin-film manufacturing processes.
Analog Devices has sold its central processing unit (CPU) voltage regulation and PC thermal monitoring product line to ON Semiconductor for $185M in cash, plus a one-year manufacturing supply deal. The products, including core CPU voltage regulator products and temperature sensors and fan-speed controllers for managing CPU temperature, represented ~$80M in sales during fiscal 2007, roughly 3% of ADI’s total sales.
AMD is receiving $622M from Mubadala Development, an investment group owned by the government of the United Arab Emirates, in exchange for an 8.1% noncontrolling minority ownership stake (Mubadala does not gain a board seat). Projected net proceeds of about $608M will be used for “general corporate purposes,” including investments in R&D, product development, and manufacturing.
ASIAFOCUS
Toshiba and NEC Electronics are in talks to extend their development partnership to 32nm system LSIs. “Derivative and differentiated” processes will be discussed separately, as will a possible joint manufacturing concern, with a decision expected sometime next year, notes the Nikkei daily. What’s also notable in this partnership is that currently does not include Fujitsu, which as recently as July was part of the joint efforts.
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone has developed a semiconductor laser chip that functions as a carbon monoxide sensor, measuring the gas based on how it absorbs light rather than a chemical reaction, notes the Nikkei Business Daily. NTT researchers figured out how to grow the crystal structure of the laser’s light-emitting component at lower temperatures, eliminating gallium for stability and allowing the chip to emit light with wavelengths up to 2.3µm. Subsidiary NTT Electronics has already started shipping samples of the device to makers of measuring equipment, with aims to make inroads in residential CO detectors in 1-2 years.
NEC Electronics has debuted 40nm system-on-chip devices with embedded DRAM, incorporating the same high-k dielectric features in its 55nm devices developed in late 2006. The 40nm process includes specific process technologies from NEC’s 55nm process, including high-k dielectric materials (hafnium gate dielectrics, nickel-silicide gate electrodes, and zirconium-oxide DRAM capacitors). Volume production of 55nm eDRAMs is planned by March, with a ramp of the 40nm devices by the end of the next fiscal year (March 2009).
STATS ChipPAC says it will expand its flip-chip offerings to its Shanghai, China operation, encompassing wafer bump, sort, assembly and final test. Volume production is expected to start in 1H08, followed by a second phase adding electroplated wafer bumping capabilities for 200mm wafers in 1H07, and 300mm wafers in 2H08.
Four years after spinning off its original nonmemory business (now MagnaChip Semiconductor), Hynix Semiconductor Inc. is getting back into the sector through a partnership and undisclosed ownership stake in Korean CMOS image sensor designer SiliconFile Technologies. Mass production is planned for 4Q08, according to the Korea Times.
Days after a Taiwan court struck down indictments against UMC execs for dealings with Chinese chip firm He Jian, the island’s Ministry of Economic Affairs’ Investment Commission has approved UMC’s first official application to invest in the mainland: a $20M deal with a printed-circuit board manufacturer held by affiliate Unimicron Technology, notes the Taiwan Economic News.
Honda Soltec, a wholly owned solar cell subsidiary of the Japanese carmaker, has opened a new solar cell production plant in Kumamoto Prefecture, with full production capacity of 27.5MW expected by next spring, according to the company. The estimated ¥7B (US ~$63.3M) operation, which shares space with the parent company’s auto assembly operation, makes CIGS (copper-indium-gallium-selenium) thin-film solar cells, which consume around 50% less energy during the manufacturing process than conventional crystal silicon solar cells, the company notes.
China Sunergy says it has ramped to mass production of selective emitter cells, and entered into various agreements to supply up to 25MW of solar cells to Canadian Solar in 2008.
Systems on Silicon Manufacturing (SSMC), a JV between NXP Semiconductors and TSMC, plans to invest $44.8M over the next four years to establish a R&D center in Singapore to focus on developing specialized manufacturing process, initially targeting e-government solutions, automotive, near-field communication, and RF markets.
SAFC Hitech says it has signed a MOU with Korea’s Gyeonggi Province to “explore investment opportunities” with the goal of building a facility in the province to supply and manufacture electronic materials.
EUROFOCUS
Solsonica, a spinoff from backend semiconductor manufacturing services provider EEMS, has contracted M+W Zander to partially retrofit an existing semiconductor manufacturing facility in Reiti (~80km north of Rome) into a PV cell manufacturing plant. Tool move-in is scheduled for January 2008, with production starting by mid-2008 with initial annual production of 30MWp/year; subsequent planned expansions will increase capacity to 120MWp/year.
A partnership between SET, the former SÜSS MicroTec device bonder division spun off earlier this year, and CEA Leti has resulted in a new high-accuracy (0.5µm), high-force (4000 N) device bonder for Leti’s backend process development, enabling areas including wafer-scale fluxless bump interconnection, vacuum hybridization and sealing, metal and polymer thermo-imprinting for bump molding, microlens processing, and polymer UV imprinting for multiple applications.
Oerlikon says it will bring all solar core competencies and new technologies under its solar unit as a standalone segment. As part of the plan, the company will double production capacity at its facility in Truebbach, Switzerland, where it already has a 1MW pilot line. Additional manufacturing locations in the US and Asia-Pacific are also currently under evaluation, as well as an “aggressive” recruitment push.
BASF has opened its expanded electronic materials center at its HQ in Ludwigshafen, Germany, following a 15-month, “double-digit million euro investment.” Qualification and production were expected to start on Jan. 1. BASF is investing about €6B between 2005-2009 on its Ludwigshafen operations for modernization and maintenance, as well as an additional €800M/year for R&D.