Disruptive technologies and markets force MEMS industry maturation
09/01/2006
A number of emerging trends could very well re-shape the MEMS industry as we know it over the next few years. Changes taking placing in fabrication, packaging, and even new product and market segments will both challenge the status quo and offer new opportunities for those who can proactively provide the right solution.
From a fabrication standpoint, the movement to an all-CMOS process has slowly been taking place. How does that differ from the hybrid approach that many are now using? Currently, CMOS wafers are processed in standard semiconductor foundries and then shipped to a second fab where the steps that build the MEMS piece of the chip on top of the CMOS circuitry take place. An all-CMOS approach differs slightly in that all these steps will occur in the same fab. Not only is the same equipment and material used, but fabrication of the MEMS device itself is seamlessly incorporated into the process flow without any disruption.
A recent announcement by TSMC indicates that this shift to an all-CMOS approach is ready to occur. However, this approach makes sense only for a handful of devices in the market, such as microphones and RF MEMS components. As MEMS device development continues to mature, that is, as new start-ups consider this approach during the earliest stages of device design, the industry will see real change occur.
A second trend within fabrication is the movement to ink-jet printing of conductive inks. This is a new market opportunity for companies who supply MEMS ink-jet printer heads, such as Hewlett Packard and Dimatix (which is being acquired by Fuji Photo Film Co.), but it also raises an interesting question for the broader semiconductor market-what impact will this shift have on silicon? A good example is RFID tags. Still in its earliest stages, the volume potential is staggering, and as such, seems to offer great potential for semiconductor manufacturers. However, a real market opportunity may evaporate if this particular product category does indeed move to ink-jet printing, since it results in a cost advantage that cannot be matched by silicon.
In addition to fabrication, some interesting implications pertaining to packaging are apparent. If RFID moves from the etching of silicon chips to ink-jet printing on paper (and other non-traditional substrates), then one development that may keep silicon an important component of RFID is the increased movement toward smart RFID, i.e., the integration of sensors to add intelligence to the RFID chip. MEMS accelerometers, as well as sensors to monitor pressure, temperature, and humidity are all expected to play a key role here. In such systems, traditional packaging approaches (at least for the sensors) will be required. However, sensor price will be a major factor since the cost of the RFID tags themselves cost far less than a dollar, and there will be strong pressure for sensors to be priced similarly.
Another unique angle to next-generation packaging needs is being driven by an emerging electronic textiles market. The integration of sensors into fabric-long viewed as a far-out niche-has emerged as a real market opportunity being driven in part by the ink-jet printing of conductive inks on textiles. MEMS sensors could play a strong role here, although next-generation conductive fibers able to provide some sensing capabilities will give MEMS sensor suppliers competition.
The last potentially disruptive trend being watched is consumer electronics. This market segment may be a bit of a Pandora’s box, in that it could result in a commoditization of the MEMS industry that was never expected. From a fabrication, packaging, and sensing standpoint, it is ideal due to high volumes. But the cost constraints are turning out to be greater than anyone ever imagined.
The MEMS industry has long touted the ability to produce MEMS devices at a low cost due to batch fabrication; this will be even more so given an all-CMOS approach. But the industry did not anticipate that those costs would ultimately have to be commodity level-that is, far less than $1. Suddenly, unit shipments in the tens or hundreds of millions have less appeal given the extremely low revenues that will actually be generated. It’s a very tough business model, and who will find success with it is unclear, but the result will shift MEMS from an emerging technology to one that is finally, truly mature.
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Contact Marlene Bourne, president and principal analyst at Bourne Research, 8867 E. Mountain Spring Rd., Scottsdale, AZ 85255; ph 480/695-0521, e-mail [email protected].