Time for innovation
03/01/2005
Conditions have never been better for a surge in innovative chip-based products, perhaps even whole new industry categories. Markets are hungry for something different; technical capabilities are racing ahead of our ability to use them effectively; and business/economic conditions are ideal for a surge in viable new technology businesses. Let’s look at each of these in turn.
Consumers all over the world have eagerly latched onto wireless and other portable products, from iPods to camera phones and cell phones enabling e-mail access from hot spots. Big screen, flat-panel TVs and computers are becoming more affordable as volumes grow. The convergence of computers, communication, and entertainment is only beginning, and already home networking is off to a good start. Businesses are flush with cash and looking for ways to boost productivity and interact with customers on-line. Broadband is reaching the critical mass needed for many new types of services.
While the technology is available to fill many of these needs, many marketplace “advances” are turning out to be more hoopla than substance. So much can be put onto each chip that many developers are adding a wide array of functions that can confuse users rather than making products more appealing. Some applications are held back by a lack of standards, making too difficult or even thwarting links for transferring things like photos, videos, and animated presentations. But progress is being made, and as a host of features and variations appear in the marketplace some will turn out to be big winners, sometimes in ways the developers hadn’t even envisioned. Cell phones with GPS and wireless links might help find lost hikers or speed emergency services to crash victims.
The convergence of electronics and biotechnology has only begun and major advances could soon emerge in this area as well. Home kits might make sophisticated diagnostics possible, perhaps even over links to clinics or doctors’ offices, helping to cut medical costs while catching diseases early and improving treatment. Lab tests can become much quicker and more reliable. DNA checking may allow tailored medications.
Chip designers may also find ways to offer general-purpose chips that can easily be adapted to thousands of individual applications. Chips with dual or multiple processors might run different software threads simultaneously, greatly speeding processing without requiring faster gates. Distributed memory can also make processing more efficient. Development tools for parallel processing and digital signal processors can help cut down the time and high design costs for some specialized applications without mass markets.
On the business side, interest rates remain historically low, and in the US the initial public offering (IPO) market is beginning to gain steam again after a hiatus caused by the dot.com crash. While investors are still wary, they can see the great success of a few of the dot.com survivors, such as Google, Yahoo, e-Bay, and Amazon.
There are even emerging opportunities in wafer processing and chip packaging. Processes like ion implantation and deposition need to be adapted for ultrashallow junctions, thermal constraints, and requirements for much thinner, conformal films even in deep trenches. New material sets and transistor structures will also require tool innovations. Novel and sometimes disruptive technologies often come from smaller, hard-driving newcomers rather than the giant companies with their political in-fighting and bureaucracies.
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There’s a rainbow in the sky, so for those of you with good ideas, it’s time to start down the road to that pot of gold.
Robert Haavind
Editorial Director