Boom coming in flat panel displays*
05/01/2002
by Naoki Tanaka
Nikkei Microdevices, Tokyo, Japan
Flat panel displays (FPDs) will replace half of cathode ray tubes (CRTs) by 2005, according to Nikkei Microdevices estimates. Almost all personal computers will convert to liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors. LCD monitors, which sold some 15 million units in 2001, will reach nearly 100 million units by 2005, while LCD TVs, about 1 million units in 2001, will reach 10 million units in 2005.
Plasma display panels (PDPs), just getting up to commercial production volume of 1 million units/year, will reach 3-5 million units by 2005.
 Figure 1. LCD production growth. |
Though the LCD panel market dived more than 10% in 2001, its worst drop ever, suppliers expect healthy growth this year. They plan a 30% increase in production, according to a Nikkei Microdevices survey, to some $23 billion (¥3 trillion) worth of the displays. Aggressive investment in capacity in Taiwan could push down prices and limit growth in dollar volume near term, but there is little doubt the FPD market overall will see double-digit growth through 2005.
Driving growth are new markets beyond the personal computer and the conventional cell phone, and new technologies that make FPDs increasingly competitive with CRTs on cost and performance.
The LCD market jumped when demand expanded from notebook computer displays to monitors for desktop computers. Flat panel monitor shipments doubled in 2001, to 14-15 million units. Similar growth should continue through the next several years, to reach 23-24 million units this year, 30 million in 2003, and 45 million in 2005.
Some major Japanese and Korean suppliers even project the LCD monitor market will reach 100 million units in 2005, essentially replacing the CRT, and that companies like Dell and Apple will turn exclusively to LCDs on their new models.
Another major market driver will at long last be the flat panel TV set, where unit sales look likely to double each year for the next few years, to reach 10 million units by 2005. The trend is fueled by broadband networks and digital media, making computers more and more like TVs and vice versa. Seiko Epson, for example, is offering a personal TV that can download a viewer's desired programs from a network's server at the desired time.
 Figure 2. Market projections for LCD TVs to 2005. |
Also, consumers increasingly like the way the compact LCD sets take up less room, and prices are starting to become more competitive, thanks in large part to next-generation plants running larger glass substrates. Samsung has started pilot production of 40-in. TFT LCDs for TV sets, and expects to match PDP sets on price by early 2003. Sharp announced a 30-in. LCD TV in September. The cost of a 36-in. digital PDP TV in Japan, meanwhile, was down to less than twice that of the CRT model as of late 2001.
Another growing LCD market is the portable digital assistant, especially the sophisticated networked devices that handle increasing amounts of information and require 3- to 4-in., high-resolution displays.
LCDs made major improvement over the last year in their ability to display video of fast moving objects without blurring. Hitachi, NEC, and Matsushita all announced improved quickness and sharpness of response of the display to movement, getting close to CRT quality.
 Figure 3. Market for LCD computer displays, 2001-2004. |
Market researchers at the Japanese TV makers note consumers are changing the way they use the flat panel TV. Matsushita notes that the number of TV sets/person is increasing, as consumers use personal sets, mobile sets, and home theater units, as well as the standard household family TV. Sony researchers say people are using larger TV sets in their kitchens and bedrooms now that they can buy flat panel units that take up less room. In addition, Sharp says its LCD TVs used to be purchased mainly by single women who lived alone, but last year, the majority of buyers were married women who used the LCD unit as the main TV watched with family or friends.
Naoki Tanaka is an editor at Nikkei Microdevices, 2-7-6 Hirakawacho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8622, Japan; ph 813/5210-8311, fax 813/5210-8530.
*This article was translated for Solid State Technology by Paula Doe from the November 2001 issue of Nikkei Microdevices, our partner in Japan.
Sharp backs LCDs*
Few took Sharp president Katsuhiko Machida seriously back in 1998 when he said that by 2005, he intended that every TV Sharp sold in Japan would be an LCD set. But the company is on track to do just that, putting its $406 million (¥5.4 billion) capital investment budget for fiscal 2002 into LCDs instead of semiconductors. In September, Sharp will start building a plant to make large-screen LCD TVs, aiming at production of 100,000 30-in. TVs/month by May 2004.
"We will focus on LCDs," Machida told Nikkei Microdevices. "And we will do everything in-house, from development to production. We won't chase after both LCDs and semiconductors. We can't invest in both, so we'll concentrate on LCDs....We will continue to develop semiconductors, but we will contract out production."
*Translated by Paula Doe from Nikkei Microdevices, March 2002